{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T02:00:45Z","timestamp":1790215245296,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":109,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,30]],"date-time":"2015-11-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1448841600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0143282","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,30]],"date-time":"2015-11-30T18:44:10Z","timestamp":1448909050000},"page":"e0143282","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":96,"title":["Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Bruno M.","family":"Carvalho","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth F.","family":"Rangel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul D.","family":"Ready","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mariana M.","family":"Vale","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1185","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)60576-6","article-title":"Climate change and health: on the latest IPCC report","volume":"383","author":"A Woodward","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects","year":"2014"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1057","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2001.0894","article-title":"Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne diseases?","volume":"356","author":"RS Kovats","year":"2001","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B"},{"key":"ref4","first-page":"189","article-title":"Climate change and the geographical distribution of infectious diseases","author":"J Rosenthal","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecohealth"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20130551","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2013.0551","article-title":"Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission","volume":"370","author":"PE Parham","year":"2015","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc B"},{"key":"ref6","first-page":"399","article-title":"Leishmaniasis emergence and climate change","volume":"27","author":"PD Ready","year":"2008","journal-title":"Rev Sci Tech"},{"key":"ref7","unstructured":"WHO. World Health Organization. Control of the leishmaniases: report of a meeting of the WHO Expert Committee on the Control of Leishmaniases, Geneva, 22\u201326 March 2010. WHO Technical Report Series, no. 949. Geneva: WHO Press; 2010."},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-ento-120811-153557","article-title":"Biology of phlebotomine sand flies as vectors of disease agents","volume":"58","author":"PD Ready","year":"2013","journal-title":"Annu Rev Entomol"},{"key":"ref9","first-page":"313","article-title":"Topley &amp; Wilson\u2019s Microbiology and Microbial Infections","volume":"5","author":"R Lainson","year":"2005"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"937","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02762009000700001","article-title":"Proven and putative vectors of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil: aspects of their biology and vectorial competence","volume":"104","author":"EF Rangel","year":"2009","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e35671","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0035671","article-title":"Leishmaniasis worldwide and global estimates of its incidence","volume":"7","author":"J Alvar","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"ref12","article-title":"Leishmaniasis\u2013Trends in Epidemiology, Diagnosis and Treatment","author":"EF Rangel","year":"2014"},{"key":"ref13","article-title":"Manual de Vigil\u00e2ncia da Leishmaniose Tegumentar Americana","year":"2007"},{"issue":"Supl.3","key":"ref14","first-page":"16","article-title":"Leishmaniose cut\u00e2nea difusa (LCD) no Brasil ap\u00f3s 60 anos de sua primeira descri\u00e7\u00e3o","volume":"79","author":"JA Costa","year":"2009","journal-title":"Gazeta M\u00e9dica da Bahia"},{"issue":"Supl.3","key":"ref15","first-page":"30","article-title":"Leishmaniasis cut\u00e1nea en Venezuela","volume":"79","author":"O Zerpa","year":"2009","journal-title":"Gazeta M\u00e9dica da Bahia"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(68)90090-4","article-title":"Leishmaniasis in Brazil I. Observations on enzootic rodent leishmaniasis\u2014Incrimination of <italic>Lutzomyia flaviscutellata<\/italic> (Mangabeira) as the vector in the lower Amazonian Basin","volume":"62","author":"R Lainson","year":"1968","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"435","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02761994000300027","article-title":"The dermal leishmaniases of Brazil, with special reference to the eco-epidemiology of the disease in Amazonia","volume":"89","author":"R Lainson","year":"1994","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"396","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(68)90091-6","article-title":"Leishmaniasis in Brazil: II. Observations on enzootic rodent leishmaniasis in the lower Amazon region\u2013the feeding habits of the vector, <italic>Lutzomyia flaviscutellata<\/italic>, in reference to man, rodents and other animals","volume":"62","author":"JJ Shaw","year":"1968","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"363","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/12.3.363","article-title":"The <italic>Lutzomyia flaviscutellata<\/italic> complex (Diptera: Psychodidae)","volume":"12","author":"DJ Lewis","year":"1975","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"key":"ref20","first-page":"1","article-title":"Guide to the identification and geographic distribution of <italic>Lutzomyia<\/italic> sand flies in Mexico, the West Indies, Central and South America (Diptera: Psychodidae)","volume":"54","author":"DG Young","year":"1994","journal-title":"Memoirs of the American Entomological Institute"},{"key":"ref21","first-page":"23","article-title":"Flebotom\u00edneos do Brasil","author":"EAB Galati","year":"2003"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"709","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(72)90084-3","article-title":"Leishmaniasis in Brazil: VI. Observations on the seasonal variations of <italic>Lutzomyia flaviscutellata<\/italic> in different types of forest and its relationship to enzootic rodent leishmaniasis (<italic>Leishmania mexicana amazonensis<\/italic>)","volume":"66","author":"JJ Shaw","year":"1972","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"775","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(83)90288-2","article-title":"Leishmaniasis in Brazil. XX: Prevalence of \u201cenzootic rodent leishmaniasis\u201d (<italic>Leishmania mexicana amazonensis<\/italic>) and apparent absence of pian-bois (<italic>Le<\/italic>. <italic>braziliensis guyanensis<\/italic>), in plantations of introduced tree species and in other non-climax forests in eastern Amazonia","volume":"77","author":"PD Ready","year":"1983","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"11\u201312","key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2921","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-012-1644-1","article-title":"Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3","volume":"41","author":"E Joetzjer","year":"2013","journal-title":"Clim Dyn"},{"key":"ref25","first-page":"1","article-title":"Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis","year":"2013"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"735","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trstmh.2007.01.005","article-title":"First report of diffuse cutaneous leishmaniasis and <italic>Leishmania amazonensis<\/italic> infection in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil","volume":"101","author":"RBG Azeredo-Coutinho","year":"2007","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1948-7134.2010.00090.x","article-title":"Richness and diversity of sand flies (Diptera, Psychodidae) in an Atlantic rainforest reserve in southeastern Brazil","volume":"35","author":"IS Pinto","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Vector Ecol"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-6-325","article-title":"Leishmaniasis transmission in an ecotourism area: potential vectors in Ilha Grande, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil","volume":"6","author":"BM Carvalho","year":"2013","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"446","DOI":"10.1590\/S0085-56262008000300019","article-title":"Estudo de flebotom\u00edneos (Diptera, Psychodidae) em \u00e1rea urbana do munic\u00edpio de Bonito, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil","volume":"52","author":"VLB Nunes","year":"2008","journal-title":"Rev Bras Entomol"},{"issue":"12","key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e27721","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0027721","article-title":"Phlebotomine fauna (Diptera: Psychodidae) and putative vectors of leishmaniases in impacted area by hydroelectric plant, state of Tocantins, Brazil","volume":"6","author":"ML Vilela","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"578","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02762013000500007","article-title":"The phlebotomine fauna (Diptera: Psychodidae) of Guara\u00ed, state of Tocantins, with an emphasis on the putative vectors of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in rural settlement and periurban areas","volume":"108","author":"ML Vilela","year":"2013","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"899","DOI":"10.1590\/0074-0276140112","article-title":"Phlebotomine fauna, natural infection rate and feeding habits of <italic>Lutzomyia cruzi<\/italic> in Jaciara, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil","volume":"109","author":"VN Brito","year":"2014","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(00)00354-9","article-title":"Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology","volume":"135","author":"A Guisan","year":"2000","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"993","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x","article-title":"Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models","volume":"8","author":"A Guisan","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ecol Lett"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"677","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159","article-title":"Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time","volume":"40","author":"J Elith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics"},{"key":"ref36","article-title":"Spatial inference and prediction","author":"J Franklin","year":"2010"},{"key":"ref37","article-title":"Monographs in Population Biology","volume":"49","author":"AT Peterson","year":"2011"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1704","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x","article-title":"Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction","volume":"33","author":"RG Pearson","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Biogeogr"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"897","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2009.06196.x","article-title":"Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species under climate change","volume":"32","author":"JAF Diniz-Filho","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref40","article-title":"No silver bullets in correlative ecological niche modeling: Insights from testing among many potential algorithms for niche estimation","author":"H Qiao","journal-title":"Methods Ecol Evol"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2011.03.004","article-title":"Absence reduction in entomological surveillance data to improve niche-based distribution models for <italic>Culicoides imicola<\/italic>","volume":"100","author":"J Peters","year":"2011","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124","DOI":"10.1111\/1749-4877.12000","article-title":"Applying various algorithms for species distribution modelling","volume":"8","author":"X Li","year":"2013","journal-title":"Integr Zool"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e585","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000585","article-title":"Climate change and risk of leishmaniasis in North America: predictions from ecological niche models of vector and reservoir species","volume":"4","author":"C Gonz\u00e1lez","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"11","key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1407","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001407","article-title":"Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change","volume":"5","author":"D Fischer","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2421","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002421","article-title":"Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in climate change scenarios","volume":"7","author":"D Moo-Llanes","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"919","DOI":"10.1016\/S0020-7519(03)00094-8","article-title":"<italic>Lutzomyia<\/italic> vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil: ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects","volume":"33","author":"AT Peterson","year":"2003","journal-title":"Int J Parasitol"},{"key":"ref47","unstructured":"IBGE. Censo 2010. 2010. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.censo2010.ibge.gov.br\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.censo2010.ibge.gov.br<\/ext-link>."},{"issue":"2","key":"ref48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/8.2.153","article-title":"On <italic>Lutzomyia flaviscutellata<\/italic> (Mangabeira) and <italic>L<\/italic>. <italic>olmeca<\/italic> (Vargas and Diaz-Najera) (Diptera: Psychodidae)","volume":"8","author":"GB Fairchild","year":"1971","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"key":"ref49","article-title":"Phlebotominae","author":"OP Forattini","year":"1973"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"877","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02762007005000111","article-title":"Modification of Disney trap for capture of sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae)","volume":"102","author":"MEC Dorval","year":"2007","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"220","DOI":"10.1590\/S0085-56262012005000020","article-title":"Sand flies (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) from Central Amazonia and four new records for the Amazonas state, Brazil","volume":"56","author":"VR Alves","year":"2012","journal-title":"Rev Bras Entomol"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.5123\/S2176-62232014000200004","article-title":"Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in forest fragments of Bel\u00e9m metropolitan area, Par\u00e1 State, Brazil, with considerations on vectors of American cutaneous leishmaniasis agents","volume":"5","author":"JVS Ferreira","year":"2014","journal-title":"Revista Pan-Amaz\u00f4nica de Sa\u00fade"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.5216\/rpt.v41i2.19323","article-title":"Phlebotomines in the area adjacent to the Porto Primavera dam, between S\u00e3o Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul States, Brazil","volume":"41","author":"AC Gomes","year":"2012","journal-title":"Revista de Patologia Tropical"},{"key":"ref54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.1890\/07-2153.1","article-title":"Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data","volume":"19","author":"SJ Phillips","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecol Appl"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1744","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2012.02750.x","article-title":"Across-taxa incongruence in patterns of collecting bias","volume":"39","author":"MM Vale","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Biogeogr"},{"key":"ref56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1965","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1276","article-title":"Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"25","author":"RJ Hijmans","year":"2005","journal-title":"International Journal of Climatology"},{"key":"ref57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"747","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08823","article-title":"The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment","volume":"463","author":"RH Moss","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x","article-title":"Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?","volume":"12","author":"RG Pearson","year":"2003","journal-title":"Glob Ecol Biogeogr"},{"key":"ref59","unstructured":"Wei T. corrplot: visualization of a correlation matrix. R package version 0.73. 2013. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=corrplot\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=corrplot<\/ext-link>."},{"issue":"1","key":"ref60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"66","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2008.05505.x","article-title":"Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models","volume":"32","author":"J Elith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12144","article-title":"BIOCLIM: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most current MaxEnt studies","volume":"20","author":"TH Booth","year":"2014","journal-title":"Divers Distrib"},{"key":"ref62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"667","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00051966","article-title":"DOMAIN: a flexible modeling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants and animals","volume":"2","author":"G Carpenter","year":"1993","journal-title":"Biodivers Conserv"},{"key":"ref63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026","article-title":"Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions","volume":"190","author":"SJ Phillips","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1080\/136588199241391","article-title":"The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction","volume":"13","author":"D Stockwell","year":"1999","journal-title":"Int J Geogr Inf Sci"},{"key":"ref65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(02)00204-1","article-title":"Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene","volume":"157","author":"A Guisan","year":"2002","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"key":"ref66","first-page":"15","article-title":"Random forests","volume":"45","author":"L Breiman","year":"2001","journal-title":"Mach Learn"},{"key":"ref67","unstructured":"Hijmans RJ, Phillips S, Leathwick J, Elith J. dismo: Species distribution modeling. R package version 1.0\u20135. 2014. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=dismo\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=dismo<\/ext-link>."},{"key":"ref68","year":"2014"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref69","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1007\/s10707-009-0090-7","article-title":"&quot;openModeller: a generic approach to species&apos; potential distribution modelling&quot;","volume":"15","author":"MES Mu\u00f1oz","year":"2011","journal-title":"Geoinformatica"},{"key":"ref70","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(02)00349-6","article-title":"Evaluating predictive models of species&apos; distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models","volume":"162","author":"RP Anderson","year":"2003","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"key":"ref71","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.17161\/bi.v2i0.4","article-title":"Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species\u2019 distributional areas","volume":"2","author":"J Sober\u00f3n","year":"2005","journal-title":"Biodiversity Informatics"},{"key":"ref72","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1810","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.011","article-title":"The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling","volume":"222","author":"N Barve","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"issue":"11","key":"ref73","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.1641\/0006-3568(2001)051[0933:TEOTWA]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth","volume":"51","author":"DM Olson","year":"2001","journal-title":"BioScience"},{"key":"ref74","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.x","article-title":"Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions","volume":"28","author":"C Liu","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref75","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"778","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.12058","article-title":"Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data","volume":"40","author":"C Liu","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Biogeogr"},{"key":"ref76","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.011","article-title":"Constraints on interpretation of ecological niche models by limited environmental ranges on calibration areas","volume":"263","author":"HL Owens","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"key":"ref77","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1223","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x","article-title":"Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistics (TSS)","volume":"43","author":"O Allouche","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Appl Ecol"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref78","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"42","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2006.09.010","article-title":"Ensemble forecasting of species distributions","volume":"22","author":"M Ara\u00fajo","year":"2007","journal-title":"Trends Ecol Evol"},{"key":"ref79","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"276","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12268","article-title":"Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications","volume":"24","author":"G Guillera-Arroita","year":"2015","journal-title":"Global Ecol Biogeogr"},{"key":"ref80","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x","article-title":"Novel methods improve prediction of species\u2019 distributions from occurrence data","volume":"29","author":"J Elith","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref81","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2011.05.008","article-title":"Projection of climatic suitability for <italic>Aedes albopictus<\/italic> Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions","volume":"78","author":"D Fischer","year":"2011","journal-title":"Glob Planet Change"},{"key":"ref82","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-11-264","article-title":"Linking land cover and species distribution models to project potential ranges of malaria vectors: an example using <italic>Anopheles arabiensis<\/italic> in Sudan and Upper Egypt","volume":"11","author":"DO Fuller","year":"2012","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"ref83","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-6-271","article-title":"Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick <italic>Ixodes ricinus<\/italic> inferred by species distribution modelling","volume":"6","author":"D Porretta","year":"2013","journal-title":"Parasit Vect"},{"key":"ref84","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2009.06039.x","article-title":"The uncertain nature of absences and their importance in species distribution modelling","volume":"33","author":"JM Lobo","year":"2010","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref85","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2020","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2004.00859.x","article-title":"Patterns and uncertainties of species\u2019 range shifts under climate change","volume":"10","author":"W Thuiller","year":"2004","journal-title":"Glob Chang Biol"},{"key":"ref86","author":"JA Marengo","year":"2007"},{"key":"ref87","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1426","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1744-7909.2008.00749.x","article-title":"Effects of climate change and shifts in forest composition on forest net primary production","volume":"50","author":"JM Chiang","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Integr Plant Biol"},{"key":"ref88","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2010.02.009","article-title":"Seasonal trends and spatial relations between environmental\/meteorological factors and leishmaniosis sand fly vector abundances in Central Spain","volume":"115","author":"R G\u00e1lvez","year":"2010","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref89","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"799","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2010.0109","article-title":"Mapping the current distribution and predicted spread of the leishmaniosis sand fly vector in the Madrid region (Spain) based on environmental variables and expected climate change","volume":"11","author":"R G\u00e1lvez","year":"2011","journal-title":"Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis"},{"key":"ref90","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2013.08.014","article-title":"Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of <italic>Leishmania infantum<\/italic> vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia","volume":"129","author":"C Gonz\u00e1lez","year":"2014","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref91","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"491","DOI":"10.1590\/S0037-86822010000500003","article-title":"Sand fly captures with Disney traps in area of occurrence of <italic>Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis<\/italic> in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, mid-western Brazil","volume":"43","author":"MEC Dorval","year":"2010","journal-title":"Rev Soc Bras Med Trop"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref92","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"695","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02762009000500005","article-title":"Phlebotomine fauna (Diptera: Psychodidae) of an American cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic area in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil","volume":"104","author":"MEC Dorval","year":"2009","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"key":"ref93","unstructured":"Rado Covarrubias CD. Estudos sobre os flebotom\u00edneos (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) e os potenciais vetores de <italic>Leishmania<\/italic> spp. na prov\u00edncia de La Convenci\u00f3n, Cusco, Per\u00fa. M.Sc. Thesis, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. 2011. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.arca.fiocruz.br\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.arca.fiocruz.br<\/ext-link>."},{"key":"ref94","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"710","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2013.09.001","article-title":"First human cases of <italic>Leishmania (Viannia) naiffi<\/italic> infection in Ecuador and identification of its suspected vector species","volume":"128","author":"H Kato","year":"2013","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref95","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"255","DOI":"10.1590\/S0036-46652011000500003","article-title":"Sandfly fauna (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Parque do Sabi\u00e1 complex, Uberl\u00e2ndia, Minas Gerais, Brazil","volume":"53","author":"EAZ Rodrigues","year":"2011","journal-title":"Rev Inst Med Trop Sao Paulo"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref96","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02762006000200010","article-title":"Phlebotomines (Diptera: Psychodidae) in forested areas of the Serra da Bodoquena, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil","volume":"101","author":"EAB Galati","year":"2006","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref97","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"313","DOI":"10.1590\/S0037-86822012000300007","article-title":"Analysis of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Barra do Gar\u00e7as, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of <italic>Lutzomyia longipalpis<\/italic> (Lutz &amp; Neiva, 1912)","volume":"45","author":"MFM Queiroz","year":"2012","journal-title":"Rev Soc Bras Med Trop"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref98","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.1590\/S0102-311X2003000400016","article-title":"Estudo de flebotom\u00edneos (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) na zona urbana da Cidade de Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil, 1999\u20132000","volume":"19","author":"AG Oliveira","year":"2003","journal-title":"Cad Saude Publica"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref99","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"914","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0809.010523","article-title":"Impact of the El Ni\u00f1o\/Southern Oscillation on visceral leishmaniasis, Brazil","volume":"8","author":"CR Franke","year":"2002","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"issue":"8","key":"ref100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e295","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0030295","article-title":"Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease","volume":"3","author":"LF Chaves","year":"2006","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref101","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"273","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2006.75.273","article-title":"Impact of climate variability in the occurrence of leishmaniasis in northeastern Colombia","volume":"75","author":"R Cardenas","year":"2006","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref102","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"326","DOI":"10.1196\/annals.1428.094","article-title":"Zoonoses and climate variability. The example of leishmaniasis in Southern departments of Colombia","volume":"1149","author":"R Cardenas","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ann N Y Acad Sci"},{"key":"ref103","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-015-0712-x","article-title":"Recent advances in phlebotomine sand fly research related to leishmaniasis control","volume":"8","author":"PA Bates","year":"2015","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"key":"ref104","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetpar.2010.11.014","article-title":"Eco-epidemiology of visceral leishmaniasis in the urban area of Paracatu, state of Minas Gerais","volume":"176","author":"ES Dias","journal-title":"Brazil. Vet Parasitol. 2011"},{"key":"ref105","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"280","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetpar.2007.07.008","article-title":"The first records of <italic>Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis<\/italic> in dogs (<italic>Canis familiaris<\/italic>) diagnosed clinically as having canine visceral leishmaniasis from Ara\u00e7atuba County, S\u00e3o Paulo State, Brazil","volume":"149","author":"JE Tolezano","year":"2007","journal-title":"Vet Parasitol"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref106","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1080\/00034983.1992.11812649","article-title":"Phlebotomine sandfly species in Paraguay and their infection with <italic>Leishmania<\/italic>","volume":"86","author":"Y Hashiguchi","year":"1992","journal-title":"Ann Trop Med Parasitol"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref107","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"655","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02762007005000077","article-title":"Isolation and molecular identification of <italic>Leishmania (Viannia) peruviana<\/italic> from naturally infected <italic>Lutzomyia peruensis<\/italic> (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the Peruvian Andes","volume":"102","author":"JE Perez","year":"2007","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"key":"ref108","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"118","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2014.05.006","article-title":"Distribution of <italic>Lutzomyia ayacuchensis<\/italic>, the vector of Andean-type cutaneous leishmaniasis, at different altitudes on the Andean slope of Ecuador","volume":"137","author":"EA Gomez","year":"2014","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref109","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1590\/S0085-56262014000100013","article-title":"Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera, Psychodidae) from Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil: Species distribution and potential vectors of leishmaniases","volume":"58","author":"BM Carvalho","year":"2014","journal-title":"Rev Bras Entomol"}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0143282","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,12]],"date-time":"2024-06-12T19:49:22Z","timestamp":1718221762000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0143282"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Nigel","family":"Beebe","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,30]]},"references-count":109,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,30]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0143282","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,30]]}}}