{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,28]],"date-time":"2026-10-28T00:02:46Z","timestamp":1793145766238,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,22]],"date-time":"2016-02-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1456099200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0149401","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,22]],"date-time":"2016-02-22T14:23:39Z","timestamp":1456151019000},"page":"e0149401","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":42,"title":["Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Xingyu","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiao","family":"Pei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuanyuan","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaosong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pau","family":"Medrano-Gracia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,22]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"226","DOI":"10.1345\/aph.1K086","article-title":"Reexamining syphilis: an update on epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and management","volume":"42","author":"ME Kent","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ann Pharmacother"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1128\/AAC.01095-09","article-title":"Global challenge of antibiotic-resistant Treponema pallidum","volume":"54","author":"LV Stamm","year":"2010","journal-title":"Antimicrob Agents Chemother"},{"issue":"9556","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"132","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)60074-9","article-title":"Syphilis in China: results of a national surveillance programme","volume":"369","author":"Z-Q Chen","year":"2007","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"issue":"18","key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1658","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp0911149","article-title":"Syphilis and Social Upheaval in China","volume":"362","author":"JD Tucker","year":"2010","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"Suppl 2","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"ii16","DOI":"10.1136\/sti.2010.048314","article-title":"An expanding syphilis epidemic in China: epidemiology, behavioural risk and control strategies with a focus on low-tier female sex workers and men who have sex with men","volume":"87","author":"JD Tucker","year":"2011","journal-title":"Sex Transm Infect"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"769","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2009.143","article-title":"PEnicillin treatment of syphilis","volume":"301","author":"JM Douglas","year":"2009","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e88075","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0088075","article-title":"Applications and Comparisons of Four Time Series Models in Epidemiological Surveillance Data","volume":"9","author":"X Zhang","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"20","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3051","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.963","article-title":"Dynamic linear model and SARIMA: a comparison of their forecasting performance in epidemiology","volume":"20","author":"FF Nobre","year":"2001","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"483","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007653329972","article-title":"A statistical analysis of the seasonality in pulmonary tuberculosis","volume":"16","author":"M Rios","year":"2000","journal-title":"Eur J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e63116","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0063116","article-title":"Comparative Study of Four Time Series Methods in Forecasting Typhoid Fever Incidence in China","volume":"8","author":"X Zhang","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"148","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2011.300283","article-title":"Changes in Fluoroquinolone Use for Gonorrhea Following Publication of Revised Treatment Guidelines","volume":"102","author":"D Dowell","year":"2011","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eswa.2005.09.002","article-title":"Comparison of four different time series methods to forecast hepatitis A virus infection","volume":"31","author":"M Ture","year":"2006","journal-title":"Expert Systems with Applications"},{"key":"ref13","article-title":"Investigating Risk Factors Associated with Syphilis Rate in the United States Based on ARIMA and ARCH\/GARCH Time Series Models","author":"K Williams"},{"issue":"251","key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-9-251","article-title":"Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan","volume":"9","author":"K Wangdi","year":"2010","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"353","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780080316","article-title":"Time series analysis of syphilis surveillance data","volume":"8","author":"AA Zaidi","year":"1989","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"497","DOI":"10.1016\/j.omega.2004.07.024","article-title":"A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting","volume":"33","author":"P-F Pai","year":"2005","journal-title":"Omega"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"190","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2012.12.003","article-title":"Time series analysis of human and bovine brucellosis in South Korea from 2005 to 2010","volume":"110","author":"HS Lee","year":"2013","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1201\/b10315","article-title":"Biosurveillance: Methods and case studies","author":"T Kass-Hout","year":"2010"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref19","first-page":"410","article-title":"Investigation of infectious disease direct reporting network management in Chinese medical institutions","volume":"25","author":"Qing Guo","year":"2010","journal-title":"Disease Surveillance"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e31076","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0031076","article-title":"Trends in Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China: Implications for Surveillance and Population Health Policy","volume":"7","author":"L Zhang","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref21","first-page":"371","article-title":"A comparative study of neural network and Box-Jenkins ARIMA modeling in time series prediction","volume":"42","author":"SL Ho","year":"2002","journal-title":"Computers & Industrial Engineering"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(98)00097-9","article-title":"On the distributions of Augmented Dickey\u2013Fuller statistics in processes with moving average components","volume":"93","author":"J Galbraith","year":"1999","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"586","DOI":"10.1016\/j.engappai.2009.09.015","article-title":"A hybrid neural network and ARIMA model for water quality time series prediction","volume":"23","author":"D\u00d6 Faruk","year":"2010","journal-title":"Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"369","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-9473(02)00298-0","article-title":"On time series with randomized unit root and randomized seasonal unit root","volume":"43","author":"PW Fong","year":"2003","journal-title":"Computational statistics & data analysis"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.2307\/2347338","article-title":"A comparison of the Akaike and Schwarz criteria for selecting model order","author":"AB Koehler","year":"1988","journal-title":"Applied Statistics"},{"key":"ref26","article-title":"a practical information-theoretic approach","author":"KP Burnham","year":"2002"},{"issue":"376","key":"ref27","first-page":"802","article-title":"Modeling multiple time series with applications","volume":"76","author":"GC Tiao","year":"1981","journal-title":"journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"key":"ref28","article-title":"Multiple time series","author":"EJ Hannan","year":"2009"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1136\/sti.76.2.73","article-title":"Syphilis in pregnancy","volume":"76","author":"M Gen\u00e7","year":"2000","journal-title":"Sex Transm Infect"},{"key":"ref30","first-page":"jit496","article-title":"Temporal Trends in Syphilis and Gonorrhea Infections in Guangdong Province, China","author":"NX Tan","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref31","first-page":"433","article-title":"Relative and seasonal incidences of the sexually transmitted diseases. A two-year statistical review","volume":"54","author":"RA Wright","year":"1978","journal-title":"Br J Vener Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"50","DOI":"10.1097\/QCO.0b013e32834204bf","article-title":"China's syphilis epidemic: epidemiology, proximate determinants of spread, and control responses","volume":"24","author":"JD Tucker","year":"2011","journal-title":"Current opinion in infectious diseases"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"396","DOI":"10.1521\/aeap.2007.19.5.396","article-title":"HIV\/AIDS-related sexual risk behaviors among rural residents in China: potential role of rural-to-urban migration","volume":"19","author":"X Li","year":"2007","journal-title":"AIDS education and prevention: official publication of the International Society for AIDS Education"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"452","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.09.070326","article-title":"Scaling up syphilis testing in China: implementation beyond the clinic","volume":"88","author":"JD Tucker","year":"2010","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-199704000-00002","article-title":"The natural history of syphilis: implications for the transmission dynamics and control of infection","volume":"24","author":"GP Garnett","year":"1997","journal-title":"Sex Transm Dis"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref36","first-page":"p249","article-title":"Latent Syphilis Among Inpatients in an Urban Area of China","volume":"7","author":"A-Y Liu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Global journal of health science"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref37","first-page":"402","article-title":"Economic and programmatic aspects of congenital syphilis prevention","volume":"82","author":"G Schmid","year":"2004","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1512","DOI":"10.1093\/humrep\/16.7.1512","article-title":"The seasonality of live birth is strongly influenced by socio-demographic factors","volume":"16","author":"M Bobak","year":"2001","journal-title":"Hum Reprod"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"275","DOI":"10.1080\/02664769100000021","article-title":"A seasonal analysis of Chinese births","volume":"18","author":"T Abeysinghe","year":"1991","journal-title":"Journal of applied statistics"}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0149401","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,23]],"date-time":"2018-10-23T15:53:23Z","timestamp":1540310003000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0149401"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Jeffrey","family":"Shaman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,22]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,22]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0149401","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,22]]}}}