{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,18]],"date-time":"2026-10-18T15:38:17Z","timestamp":1792337897217,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,8]],"date-time":"2019-08-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1565222400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0220106","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,8]],"date-time":"2019-08-08T13:31:21Z","timestamp":1565271081000},"page":"e0220106","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":75,"title":["Forecasting dengue fever in Brazil: An assessment of climate conditions"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6313-0126","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lucas M.","family":"Stolerman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pedro D.","family":"Maia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J. Nathan","family":"Kutz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. dengue and severe dengue. WHO Factsheet No 117. Geneva. 2015; Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.who.int\/mediacentre\/factsheets\/fs117\/en\/\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.who.int\/mediacentre\/factsheets\/fs117\/en\/<\/ext-link>."},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"S Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref3","first-page":"25","article-title":"Dengue in Brazil: Past, Present and Future Perspectives","volume":"27","author":"LTM Figueredo","year":"2003","journal-title":"dengue Bulletin"},{"key":"ref4","article-title":"Epidemiological Scenario of dengue in Brazil","author":"RC Fares","year":"2015","journal-title":"Biomed research international"},{"issue":"12","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2581","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002581","article-title":"dengue virus in sub-tropical northern and central Viet Nam: Population immunity and climate shape patterns of viral invasion and maintenance","volume":"7","author":"MA Rabaa","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1002064","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1002064","article-title":"Endemic dengue associated with the co-circulation of multiple viral lineages and localized density-dependent transmission","volume":"7","author":"J Raghwani","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog"},{"issue":"8","key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e6763","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0006763","article-title":"Man bites mosquito: understanding the contribution of human movement to vector-borne disease dynamics","volume":"4","author":"B Adams","year":"2009","journal-title":"PloS one"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2581","DOI":"10.1137\/140996148","article-title":"SIR-Network Model and Its Application to dengue Fever","volume":"75","author":"LM Stolerman","year":"2015","journal-title":"SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1987.36.143","article-title":"Effect of temperature on the vector efficiency of <italic>Aedes aegypti<\/italic> for dengue 2 virus","volume":"36","author":"DM Watts","year":"1987","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref10","first-page":"560","article-title":"Rainfall, abundance of Aedes and dengue infection in Selangor, Malaysia","volume":"16","author":"LC Foo","year":"1985","journal-title":"Southeast Asian J Trop Med Pub Health"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"441","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1010717502442","article-title":"Global-scale relationships between climate and the dengue fever vector, Aedes aegypti","volume":"48","author":"MJ Hopp","year":"2001","journal-title":"Clim Change"},{"key":"ref12","first-page":"e0190673","article-title":"Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling","author":"RM Lana","year":"2018"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0004681","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004681","article-title":"Predicting dengue Fever Outbreaks in French Guiana Using Climate Indicators","volume":"10","author":"A Adde","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLOS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002771","article-title":"Prediction of high incidence of dengue in the Philippines","volume":"8","author":"AL Buczak","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"ref15","article-title":"Machine learning: a probabilistic perspective","author":"KP Murphy","year":"2012"},{"key":"ref16","article-title":"Pattern recognition","volume":"128","author":"CM Bishop","year":"2006","journal-title":"Machine Learning"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"273","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00994018","article-title":"Support-vector networks","volume":"20","author":"C Cortes","year":"1995","journal-title":"Machine learning"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1009715923555","article-title":"A tutorial on support vector machines for pattern recognition","author":"CJ Burges","year":"1998","journal-title":"Data mining and knowledge discovery 2.2"},{"key":"ref19","unstructured":"Brazilian National Surveillance System (SINAN) Total number of dengue cases in state capitals Available from (website in Portuguese): <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/portalsinan.saude.gov.br\/dados-epidemiologicos-sinan\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/portalsinan.saude.gov.br\/dados-epidemiologicos-sinan<\/ext-link>"},{"key":"ref20","unstructured":"Ministry of Health, Epidemiological Report\u2014dengue Fever (January to June, 2008). Available from (website in Portuguese): <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/bvsms.saude.gov.br\/bvs\/publicacoes\/informe_epidemiologico_dengue_janeiro_junho_2008.pdf\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/bvsms.saude.gov.br\/bvs\/publicacoes\/informe_epidemiologico_dengue_janeiro_junho_2008.pdf<\/ext-link>"},{"key":"ref21","unstructured":"Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) Temperature and precipitation time series. Available from (website in Portuguese): <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.inmet.gov.br\/projetos\/rede\/pesquisa\/\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.inmet.gov.br\/projetos\/rede\/pesquisa\/<\/ext-link>"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2013.07.025","article-title":"Seasonal and nonseasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Fitting mathematical models to trap data","volume":"129","author":"R. M. Lana","year":"2014","journal-title":"Acta tropica"},{"key":"ref23","article-title":"Diffusion pattern and hotspot detection of dengue in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil","author":"JEMP Pessanha","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of tropical medicine"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1001","DOI":"10.1603\/033.046.0505","article-title":"Temporal distribution of Aedes aegypti in different districts of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, measured by two types of traps","volume":"46","author":"NA Hon\u00f3rio","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Entomology"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"554","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02762008000600008","article-title":"Study of the relationship between Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti egg and adult densities, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil","volume":"103","author":"MR Dibo","year":"2008","journal-title":"Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"947","DOI":"10.1007\/s00477-014-0948-6","article-title":"Regional response of dengue fever epidemics to interannual variation and related climate variability","volume":"29","author":"CM Liao","year":"2015","journal-title":"Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e382","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000382","article-title":"Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico","volume":"3","author":"MA Johansson","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"ref28","unstructured":"Brazilian Ministry of Health. Promotion of national mobilization effort against Aedes Aegypti in 2013 (in Portuguese). Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.brasil.gov.br\/saude\/2013\/11\/governo-lanca-nova-campanha-de-mobilizacao-contra-dengue\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.brasil.gov.br\/saude\/2013\/11\/governo-lanca-nova-campanha-de-mobilizacao-contra-dengue<\/ext-link>"},{"key":"ref29","unstructured":"Brazilian Ministry of Health. Promotion of national mobilization effort against Aedes Aegypti in 2016 (in Portuguese). Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.brasil.gov.br\/governo\/2016\/02\/dilma-visita-rio-de-janeiro-no-dia-nacional-de-mobilizacao-zika-zero\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.brasil.gov.br\/governo\/2016\/02\/dilma-visita-rio-de-janeiro-no-dia-nacional-de-mobilizacao-zika-zero<\/ext-link>"},{"key":"ref30","unstructured":"Brazilian Ministry of Health. Promotion of national mobilization effort against Aedes Aegypti for 2017. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.brazilgovnews.gov.br\/news\/2016\/11\/government-promotes-national-mobilisation-effort-against-aedes-aegypti\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.brazilgovnews.gov.br\/news\/2016\/11\/government-promotes-national-mobilisation-effort-against-aedes-aegypti<\/ext-link>"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1018","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/30.6.1018","article-title":"Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): simulation results and validation","volume":"30","author":"D Focks","year":"1993","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"497","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.12-0421","article-title":"Temperature and dengue virus infection in mosquitoes: independent effects on the immature and adult stages","volume":"88","author":"B. W. Alto","year":"2013","journal-title":"The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"497","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.12-0421","article-title":"Temperature and dengue virus infection in mosquitoes: independent effects on the immature and adult stages","volume":"88","author":"BW Alto","year":"2013","journal-title":"The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene"},{"issue":"3-4","key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"509","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aogh.2017.10.011","article-title":"Estimating Effects of Temperature on dengue Transmission in Colombian Cities","volume":"83","author":"VH Pe\u00f1a-Garc\u00eda","year":"2017","journal-title":"Annals of global health"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005568","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005568","article-title":"Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models","volume":"11","author":"EA Mordecai","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS neglected tropical diseases"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-016-2923-2","article-title":"Effects of weather factors on dengue fever incidence and implications for interventions in Cambodia","volume":"16","author":"Y. Choi","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC public health"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1618558114","article-title":"Climate variation drives dengue dynamics","volume":"114","author":"L. Xu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"641","DOI":"10.1590\/1413-81232015212.09592015","article-title":"Temporal relationship between rainfall, temperature and occurrence of dengue cases in S\u00e3o Lu\u00eds, Maranh\u00e3o, Brazil","volume":"21","author":"FD Silva","year":"2016","journal-title":"Ciencia & saude coletiva"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1618558114","article-title":"Climate variation drives dengue dynamics","volume":"114","author":"L Xu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"855","DOI":"10.1603\/0046-225X-30.5.855","article-title":"Survival and development of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae under a seasonally changing environment in Nagasaki, Japan","volume":"30","author":"Y. Tsuda","year":"2001","journal-title":"Environmental Entomology"},{"key":"ref41","unstructured":"Valdez, L. D., Sibona, G. J., &amp; Condat, C. A. (2017). Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations. arXiv preprint arXiv:1711.07164."},{"issue":"5","key":"ref42","first-page":"e0125049","article-title":"PLoS ONE","volume":"10","author":"K Kesorn","year":"2015"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1987.36.143","article-title":"Effect of temperature on the vector efficiency of Aedes aegypti for dengue 2 virus","volume":"36","author":"D. M. Watts","year":"1987","journal-title":"The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene"},{"issue":"18","key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7460","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1101377108","article-title":"Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti","volume":"108","author":"L. Lambrechts","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2008.79.933","article-title":"Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil","volume":"79","author":"PM Luz","year":"2008","journal-title":"The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bakar AA, Kefli Z, Abdullah S, Sahani M (2011). Predictive models for dengue outbreak using multiple rulebase classifiers. In Electrical Engineering and Informatics (ICEEI), 2011 International Conference on (pp. 1-6). IEEE.","DOI":"10.1109\/ICEEI.2011.6021830"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cageo.2010.01.008","article-title":"Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil","volume":"37","author":"R Lowe","year":"2011","journal-title":"Computers & Geosciences"},{"key":"ref48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"864","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.5549","article-title":"The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil","volume":"32","author":"R Lowe","year":"2012","journal-title":"Statist Med"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1648","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001648","article-title":"Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems","volume":"6","author":"V Racloz","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0195065","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0195065","article-title":"Dengue forecasting in S\u00e3o Paulo city with generalized additive models, artificial neural networks and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models","volume":"13","author":"O. S. Baquero","year":"2018","journal-title":"PloS one"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005973","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005973","article-title":"Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: a case study in China","volume":"11","author":"P. Guo","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS neglected tropical diseases"},{"key":"ref52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rahmawati, D., &amp; Huang, Y. P. (2016, July). Using C-support vector classification to forecast dengue fever epidemics in Taiwan. In 2016 International Conference on System Science and Engineering (ICSSE) (pp. 1-4). IEEE.","DOI":"10.1109\/ICSSE.2016.7551552"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0006587","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006587","article-title":"Mapping dengue risk in Singapore using Random Forest","volume":"12","author":"J. Ong","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS neglected tropical diseases"},{"key":"ref54","first-page":"69","article-title":"Pre-Screening Systems for Early Disease Prediction, Detection, and Prevention","author":"S. Gambhir","year":"2019"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0165085","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0165085","article-title":"Dynamic forecasting of Zika epidemics using Google Trends","volume":"12","author":"Y. Teng","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"38","key":"ref56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11887","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1504964112","article-title":"Impact of human mobility on the emergence of dengue epidemics in Pakistan","volume":"112","author":"A Wesolowski","year":"2015","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"011901","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevE.84.011901","article-title":"dengue epidemics and human mobility","volume":"84","author":"DH Barmak","year":"2011","journal-title":"Physical Review E"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1000139","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1000139","article-title":"The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling","volume":"6","author":"DA Cummings","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2008.01.010","article-title":"Spatial correlation of incidence of dengue with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental variables in a Brazilian city","volume":"393","author":"A Mondini","year":"2008","journal-title":"Science of the Total Environment"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e106","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0020106","article-title":"Nonstationary influence of El Nino on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand","volume":"2","author":"B Cazelles","year":"2005","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Banu S, Guo Y, Hu W, Dale P, Mackenzie JS, Mengersen K, et al. Impacts of El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. Scientific report.2015; 5.","DOI":"10.1038\/srep16105"}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0220106","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,8]],"date-time":"2020-05-08T15:05:05Z","timestamp":1588950305000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0220106"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Abdallah M.","family":"Samy","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,8]]},"references-count":61,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,8]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0220106","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,8]]}}}