{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]],"date-time":"2026-08-28T07:42:23Z","timestamp":1787902943801,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":59,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,29]],"date-time":"2020-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1590710400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0220592","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,29]],"date-time":"2020-05-29T13:34:02Z","timestamp":1590759242000},"page":"e0220592","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Local rabies transmission and regional spatial coupling in European foxes"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3107-6588","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Laurie","family":"Baker","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jason","family":"Matthiopoulos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas","family":"M\u00fcller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Conrad","family":"Freuling","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katie","family":"Hampson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,29]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1325","key":"pone.0220592.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1995.0070","article-title":"Space, persistence and dynamics of measles epidemics","volume":"348","author":"B Bolker","year":"1995","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"issue":"1347","key":"pone.0220592.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1615","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1996.0145","article-title":"From individuals to epidemics","volume":"351","author":"SA Levin","year":"1996","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"issue":"5543","key":"pone.0220592.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"813","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1065973","article-title":"Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape","volume":"294","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"2001","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"5441","key":"pone.0220592.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"968","DOI":"10.1126\/science.286.5441.968","article-title":"Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations","volume":"286","author":"P Rohani","year":"1999","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0220592.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"511","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2005.07.004","article-title":"Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease?","volume":"20","author":"JO Lloyd-Smith","year":"2005","journal-title":"Trends Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0220592.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1186\/s12917-016-0935-x","article-title":"Harmonizing methods for wildlife abundance estimation and pathogen detection in Europe\u2013a questionnaire survey on three selected host-pathogen combinations","volume":"13","author":"J Sonnenburg","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC Vet Res"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0220592.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"517","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.34.030102.151725","article-title":"Social organization and parasite risk in mammals: integrating theory and empirical studies","volume":"34","author":"S Altizer","year":"2003","journal-title":"Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"421","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-387040-7.00020-2","article-title":"Understanding effects of barriers on the spread and control of rabies","volume":"79","author":"EE Rees","year":"2011","journal-title":"Adv Virus Res"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511615740","volume-title":"Wildlife population growth rates","author":"RM Sibly","year":"2003"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"136","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.12092","article-title":"Overview of vaccination trials for control of tuberculosis in cattle, wildlife and humans","volume":"60","author":"B Buddle","year":"2013","journal-title":"Transbound Emerg Dis"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0220592.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e549","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000549","article-title":"Oral rabies vaccination in North America: opportunities, complexities, and challenges","volume":"3","author":"D Slate","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0220592.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tvjl.2014.10.026","article-title":"Terrestrial rabies control in the European Union: historical achievements and challenges ahead","volume":"203","author":"T M\u00fcller","year":"2015","journal-title":"The Veterinary Journal"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref013","first-page":"700","article-title":"A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics","volume":"115","author":"WO Kermack","year":"1927","journal-title":"Proc Math Phys Eng Sci"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref014","volume-title":"Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control","author":"RM Anderson","year":"1992"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0220592.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1890\/1540-9295(2005)003[0029:ETTEID]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Ecological theory to enhance infectious disease control and public health policy","volume":"3","author":"KF Smith","year":"2005","journal-title":"Front Ecol Environ"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"066117","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevE.63.066117","article-title":"Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks","volume":"63","author":"R Pastor-Satorras","year":"2001","journal-title":"Phys Rev E"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0220592.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5193(03)00031-6","article-title":"Interpreting time-series analyses for continuous-time biological models \u2014measles as a case study","volume":"223","author":"K Glass","year":"2003","journal-title":"J Theor Biol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0220592.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00276956","article-title":"Influence of nonlinear incidence rates upon the behavior of SIRS epidemiological models","volume":"23","author":"Wm Liu","year":"1986","journal-title":"J Math Biol"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-61317-3_10","article-title":"Influenza and some related mathematical models","volume":"18","author":"Wm Liu","year":"1989","journal-title":"Applied Mathematical Ecology"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0220592.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"295","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-5347(01)02144-9","article-title":"How should pathogen transmission be modelled?","volume":"16","author":"H McCallum","year":"2001","journal-title":"Trends Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"1719","key":"pone.0220592.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20160084","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2016.0084","article-title":"Breaking beta: deconstructing the parasite transmission function","volume":"372","author":"H McCallum","year":"2017","journal-title":"Phil Trans R Soc B"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0220592.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"80","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecocom.2005.09.001","article-title":"On representing network heterogeneities in the incidence rate of simple epidemic models","volume":"3","author":"M Roy","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecological complexity"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0220592.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"901","DOI":"10.1086\/420798","article-title":"Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera","volume":"163","author":"K Koelle","year":"2004","journal-title":"Am Nat"},{"issue":"1623","key":"pone.0220592.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0142","article-title":"The elimination of fox rabies from Europe: determinants of success and lessons for the future","volume":"368","author":"CM Freuling","year":"2013","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref025","unstructured":"M\u00fcller T, Freuling C. Rabies elimination in Europe\u2013a success story. OIE Global conference on rabies control: Towards sustainable prevention at the source, 7\u20139 Sept 2011, Incheon-Seoul, Korea; 2012."},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0220592.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003953","article-title":"Spatio-temporal Use of Oral Rabies Vaccines in Fox Rabies Elimination Programmes in Europe","volume":"9","author":"TF M\u00fcller","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0220592.ref027","first-page":"5","article-title":"The European Union strategy for external cooperation with neighbouring countries on rabies control","volume":"35","author":"P Demetriou","year":"2011","journal-title":"Rabies Bulletin Europe"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0220592.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"799","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.31.3.2152","article-title":"The WHO Rabies Bulletin Europe: a key source of information on rabies and a pivotal tool for surveillance and epidemiology","volume":"31","author":"C Freuling","year":"2012","journal-title":"Rev Sci Tech"},{"issue":"5-6","key":"pone.0220592.ref029","first-page":"178","article-title":"Elimination of terrestrial rabies in Germany using oral vaccination of foxes","volume":"125","author":"T M\u00fcller","year":"2012","journal-title":"Berl Munch Tierarztl Wochenschr"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0220592.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"580","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1439-0450.1976.tb00696.x","article-title":"Annual Turnover of Fox Populations in Europe","volume":"23","author":"HG Lloyd","year":"1976","journal-title":"Zentralblatt f\u00fcr Veterin\u00e4rmedizin Reihe B"},{"issue":"14","key":"pone.0220592.ref031","first-page":"185","article-title":"Daten zur Fortpflanzungsbiologie und zur Reproduktionsstrategie des Rotfuchses, Vulpes vulpes, in der Oberlausitz","volume":"3","author":"H Ansorge","year":"1990","journal-title":"S\u00e4ugetierkd Inf"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0220592.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1481","DOI":"10.1644\/07-MAMM-A-405.1","article-title":"Body mass, territory size, and life-history tactics in a socially monogamous canid, the red fox Vulpes vulpes","volume":"89","author":"G Iossa","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Mammal"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-3527(08)60760-5","article-title":"Epidemiology of Fox Rabies","volume":"21","author":"B Toma","year":"1977","journal-title":"Adv Virus Res"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0220592.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.2307\/3565990","article-title":"Reproductive effort in the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, and future supply of a fluctuating prey","volume":"52","author":"E Lindstr\u00f6m","year":"1988","journal-title":"Oikos"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0220592.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0004432","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004432","article-title":"Rabies in the Baltic States: decoding a process of control and elimination","volume":"10","author":"E Robardet","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref036","unstructured":"Plummer M. A program for analysis of Bayesian graphical models using Gibbs sampling. Technische Universitat Wien, Vienna, Austria. 2002;."},{"issue":"1-2","key":"pone.0220592.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-5877(00)00167-7","article-title":"The spatio-temporal dynamics of a post-vaccination resurgence of rabies in foxes and emergency vaccination planning","volume":"47","author":"HH Thulke","year":"2000","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"765","DOI":"10.1038\/289765a0","article-title":"Population dynamics of fox rabies in Europe","volume":"289","author":"R Anderson","year":"1981","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0220592.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(98)00198-7","article-title":"From pattern to practice: a scaling-down strategy for spatially explicit modelling illustrated by the spread and control of rabies","volume":"117","author":"H Thulke","year":"1999","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0220592.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1254","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2009.01191.x","article-title":"Predictive model assessment for count data","volume":"65","author":"C Czado","year":"2009","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0220592.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0061588","article-title":"Rabies and Canine Distemper Virus Epidemics in the Red Fox Population of Northern Italy (2006-2010)","volume":"8","author":"P Nouvellet","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"3-4","key":"pone.0220592.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2005.07.009","article-title":"Assessing the role of long-distance translocation and spatial heterogeneity in the raccoon rabies epidemic in Connecticut","volume":"71","author":"D Smith","year":"2005","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2018.0280","article-title":"Optimizing spatial and seasonal deployment of vaccination campaigns to eliminate wildlife rabies","volume":"374","author":"L Baker","year":"2019","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0220592.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"395","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-5347(97)01174-9","article-title":"(Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases","volume":"12","author":"B Grenfell","year":"1997","journal-title":"Trends Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"1786","key":"pone.0220592.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20132962","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2013.2962","article-title":"The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations","volume":"281","author":"AJ Peel","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc Biol Sci"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0220592.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1004455","article-title":"Contact Heterogeneity, Rather Than Transmission Efficiency, Limits the Emergence and Spread of Canine Influenza Virus","volume":"10","author":"BD Dalziel","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog"},{"issue":"15111","key":"pone.0220592.ref047","article-title":"The Scaling of Human Contacts and Epidemic Processes in Metapopulation Networks","volume":"5","author":"M Tizzoni","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nat Sci Rep"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0220592.ref048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/cjs.11304","article-title":"Gaussian process emulators for spatial individual-level models of infectious disease","volume":"44","author":"G Pokharel","year":"2016","journal-title":"Can J Stat"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0220592.ref049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1111\/rssc.12042","article-title":"Emulating a gravity model to infer the spatiotemporal dynamics of an infectious disease","volume":"63","author":"R Jandarov","year":"2014","journal-title":"J R Soc Stat C"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0220592.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007565","article-title":"High-resolution contact networks of free-ranging domestic dogs Canis familiaris and implications for transmission of infection","volume":"13","author":"JK Wilson-Aggarwal","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268819000189","article-title":"Using roaming behaviours of dogs to estimate contact rates: The predicted effect on rabies spread","volume":"147","author":"E Hudson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Epidemiology and Infection"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006680","article-title":"The importance of dog population contact network structures in rabies transmission","volume":"12","author":"M Laager","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref053","first-page":"285","article-title":"The importance of dog population contact network structures in rabies transmission","volume":"5","author":"L Andral","year":"1982","journal-title":"Comparative immunology, microbiology and infectious diseases"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"226","DOI":"10.7589\/0090-3558-33.2.226","article-title":"Population and movement characteristics of radio-collared striped skunks in North Dakota during an epizootic of rabies","volume":"33","author":"RJ Greenwood","year":"1997","journal-title":"J Wildlife Disease"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0220592.ref055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.1000053","article-title":"Transmission dynamics and prospects for the elimination of canine rabies","volume":"7","author":"K Hampson","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Biology"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref056","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1720","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2656.12422","article-title":"Raccoon contact networks predict seasonal susceptibility to rabies outbreaks and limitations of vaccination","volume":"84","author":"JJH Reynolds","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Anim Ecol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0220592.ref057","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"415","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2007.01439.x","article-title":"Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases","volume":"45","author":"D Eisinger","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Appl Ecol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0220592.ref058","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-5-10","article-title":"Emergency vaccination of rabies under limited resources\u2013combating or containing?","volume":"5","author":"D Eisinger","year":"2005","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"pone.0220592.ref059","first-page":"265","article-title":"Scenario-analysis evaluating emergency strategies after rabies re-introduction","volume":"131","author":"H Thulke","year":"2008","journal-title":"Dev Biol (Basel)"}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0220592","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,29]],"date-time":"2020-05-29T13:34:38Z","timestamp":1590759278000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0220592"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Chris T.","family":"Bauch","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,29]]},"references-count":59,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,29]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0220592","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/710988","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,29]]}}}