{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T16:54:02Z","timestamp":1772211242355,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,17]],"date-time":"2022-02-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1645056000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000038","name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["303775"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["303775"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000038","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000094","name":"Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000094","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Department for Environment and Regions","award":["1\/1\/160 and 1\/1\/64"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1\/1\/160 and 1\/1\/64"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Aphids can have a significant impact on the growth and commercial yield of spruce plantations. Here we develop a mechanistic deterministic mathematical model for the dynamics of the green spruce aphid (\n                    <jats:italic>Elatobium abietum<\/jats:italic>\n                    Walker) growing on Sitka spruce (\n                    <jats:italic>Picea sitchensis<\/jats:italic>\n                    (Bong.) Carr.). These grow in a northern British climate in managed plantations, with planting, thinning and a 60-year rotation. Aphid infestation rarely kills the tree but can reduce growth by up to 55%. We used the Edinburgh Forest Model (efm) to simulate spruce tree growth. The aphid sub-model is described in detail in an appendix. The only environmental variable which impacts immediately on aphid dynamics is air temperature which varies diurnally and seasonally. The efm variables that are directly significant for the aphid are leaf area and phloem nitrogen and carbon. Aphid population predictions include dying out, annual, biennual and other complex patterns, including chaos. Predicted impacts on plantation yield of managed forests can be large and variable, as has been observed; they are also much affected by temperature, CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    concentration and other climate variables. However, in this system, increased CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    concentration appears to ameliorate the severity of the effects of increasing temperatures coupled to worsening aphid infestations on plantation yield.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0252911","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,17]],"date-time":"2022-02-17T13:35:01Z","timestamp":1645104901000},"page":"e0252911","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Climate sensitivity of the complex dynamics of the green spruce aphid\u2014Spruce plantation interactions: Insight from a new mechanistic model"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"John H. M.","family":"Thornley","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3155-4084","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jonathan A.","family":"Newman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,17]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0252911.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-8137.2012.04074.x","article-title":"A meta-analytical review of the effects of elevated CO2 on plant\u2013arthropod interactions highlights the importance of interacting environmental and biological variables","volume":"194","author":"EA Robinson","year":"2012","journal-title":"New Phytologist"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0252911.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1111\/brv.12002","article-title":"Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change","volume":"88","author":"CM Prather","year":"2013","journal-title":"Biological Reviews"},{"key":"pone.0252911.ref003","unstructured":"Day KR, Halld\u00f3rsson G, Harding S, Straw NA. The Green Spruce Aphid in Western Europe: Ecology, Status, Impacts and Prospects for Management. vol. 4 of Forestry Commission Technical Paper 24. Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Wrecclesham, Farnham, Surrey GL10 4LH, UK: The Research Communications Officer, Forest Research; 1998."},{"key":"pone.0252911.ref004","volume-title":"Aphid Ecology","author":"AFG Dixon","year":"1998","edition":"2"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0252911.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"747","DOI":"10.1093\/jxb\/erj067","article-title":"Phloem-sap feeding by animals: problems and solutions","volume":"57","author":"AE Douglas","year":"2006","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Botany"},{"key":"pone.0252911.ref006","unstructured":"Straw N, Halld\u00f3rsson G, Benedikz T. Damage sustained by individual trees: empirical studies on the impact of the green spruce aphid. In: Day K, Halld\u00f3rsson G, Harding S, Straw NA, editors. The Green Spruce Aphid in Western Europe: Ecology, Status, Impacts and Prospects for Management. Forestry Commission Technical Paper 24. Alice Holt Lodge, Wrecclesham, Farnham, Surrey GL10 4LH, UK: Forestry Commission; 1998. p. 15\u201331."},{"key":"pone.0252911.ref007","unstructured":"Randle TJ, Ludlow AR. Growth costs to plantations: modelling the cumulative effect of defoliation by Elatobium. In: Day K, Halld\u00f3rsson G, Harding S, Straw NA, editors. The Green Spruce Aphid in Western Europe: Ecology, Status, Impacts and Prospects for Management. Forestry Commission Technical Paper 24. Alice Holt Lodge, Wrecclesham, Farnham, Surrey GL10 4LH, UK: Forestry Commission; 1998. p. 32\u201340."},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0252911.ref008","first-page":"134","article-title":"Climate change and the impact of green spruce aphid,Elatobium abietinum (Walker), in the UK","volume":"49","author":"NA Straw","year":"1995","journal-title":"Scottish Forestry"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0252911.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1080\/136588199241391","article-title":"The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction","volume":"13","author":"D Stockwell","year":"1999","journal-title":"International Journal of Geographical Information Science"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0252911.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x","article-title":"Novel methods improve prediction of species\u2019 distributions from occurrence data","volume":"29","author":"J Elith","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0252911.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1017\/S0007485399000127","article-title":"Bionomics and the predicted distribution of the aphid Brachycaudus rumexicolens (Hemiptera: Aphididae)","volume":"89","author":"JK Scott","year":"1999","journal-title":"Bulletin of Entomological Research"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0252911.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"857","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-008-9299-x","article-title":"Potential exposure of a classical biological control agent of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines, on non-target aphids in North America","volume":"11","author":"KAG Wyckhuys","year":"2009","journal-title":"Biological Invasions"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0252911.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"434","DOI":"10.1111\/afe.12073","article-title":"Invasive aphids of the tribe Siphini: a model of potentially suitable ecological niches","volume":"16","author":"K Wieczorek","year":"2014","journal-title":"Agricultural and Forest Entomology"},{"key":"pone.0252911.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cropro.2016.06.008","article-title":"Changing global risk of invading greenbug Schizaphis graminum under climate change","volume":"88","author":"R Aljaryian","year":"2016","journal-title":"Crop Protection"},{"key":"pone.0252911.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"208","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agee.2016.08.029","article-title":"From species distributions to climate change adaptation: knowledge gaps in managing invertebrate pests in broad-acre grain crops","volume":"253","author":"S Macfadyen","year":"2018","journal-title":"Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment"},{"issue":"1549","key":"pone.0252911.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2025","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2010.0037","article-title":"Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels","volume":"365","author":"WH Van der Putten","year":"2010","journal-title":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0252911.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2778","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12557","article-title":"Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)","volume":"20","author":"EA Berzitis","year":"2014","journal-title":"Global Change Biology"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0252911.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"146","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-5347(99)01604-3","article-title":"Climate change and trophic interactions","volume":"14","author":"R Harrington","year":"1999","journal-title":"Trends in Ecology & Evolution"},{"key":"pone.0252911.ref019","first-page":"231","volume-title":"Agroecosystems in a Changing Climate","author":"JA Newman","year":"1988"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0252911.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"284","DOI":"10.1007\/s10021-016-0066-z","article-title":"Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: a review","volume":"20","author":"DL DeAngelis","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecosystems"},{"key":"pone.0252911.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"62","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoinf.2017.05.006","article-title":"Simulating spatially-explicit crop dynamics of agricultural landscapes: The ATLAS simulator","volume":"40","author":"H Thierry","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecological Informatics"},{"key":"pone.0252911.ref022","unstructured":"Parry H, Evans AJ, Morgan D. 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