{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T10:38:47Z","timestamp":1789987127468,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":15,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,1]],"date-time":"2022-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1643673600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001505","name":"Health Research Council of New Zealand","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["19-232"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["19-232"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001505","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001511","name":"Auckland Medical Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1318001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1318001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001511","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Elevated serum urate is the most important causal risk factor for developing gout. However, in longitudinal cohort studies, a small proportion of people with normal urate levels develop gout and the majority of those with high urate levels do not. These observations may be due to subsequent variations in serum urate over time. Our analysis examined whether single or repeat testing of serum urate more accurately predicts incident gout over time. Individual participant data from three publicly-available cohorts were included. Data from paired serum urate measures 3\u20135 years apart, followed by an assessment of gout incidence 5\u20136 years from the second urate measure were used to calculate the predictive ability of four measures of serum urate on incident gout: the first measure, the second measure, the average of the two measures, and the highest of the two measures. Participants with prevalent gout prior to the second measure were excluded. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) statistics were computed to compare the four measures. A total of 16,017 participants were included across the three cohorts, with a mean follow-up from the first serum urate test of 9.3 years (range 8.9\u201310.1 years). Overall, there was a small increase in the mean serum urate between the first and second measures (322 \u03bcmol\/L (5.42 mg\/dL) vs. 340 \u03bcmol\/L (5.71 mg\/dL), P&lt;0.001) which were a mean of 3.5 years apart, but the first and second measures were highly correlated (r = 0.81, P&lt;0.001). No differences were observed in the predictive ability of incident gout between the four measures of serum urate measurement with ROC curve AUC statistics ranging between 0.81 (95% confidence intervals: 0.78\u20130.84) and 0.84 (95% confidence intervals: 0.81\u20130.87). These data show that repeat serum urate testing is not superior to a single measure of serum urate for prediction of incident gout over approximately one decade.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0263175","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,1]],"date-time":"2022-02-01T18:27:24Z","timestamp":1643740044000},"page":"e0263175","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Is repeat serum urate testing superior to a single test to predict incident gout over time?"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9318-5627","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sarah","family":"Stewart","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amanda","family":"Phipps-Green","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0412-3203","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Greg D.","family":"Gamble","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lisa K.","family":"Stamp","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"William J.","family":"Taylor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tuhina","family":"Neogi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tony R.","family":"Merriman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicola","family":"Dalbeth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0263175.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1069","DOI":"10.1002\/art.27338","article-title":"Epidemiology of gout in women: Fifty-two-year followup of a prospective cohort","volume":"62","author":"V Bhole","year":"2010","journal-title":"Arthritis Rheum"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"421","DOI":"10.1016\/0002-9343(87)90441-4","article-title":"Asymptomatic hyperuricemia. Risks and consequences in the Normative Aging Study","volume":"82","author":"EW Campion","year":"1987","journal-title":"Am J Med"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1048","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2017-212288","article-title":"Relationship between serum urate concentration and clinically evident incident gout: an individual participant data analysis","volume":"77","author":"N Dalbeth","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ann Rheum Dis"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1016\/0002-9343(67)90004-6","article-title":"Epidemiology of gout and hyperuricemia. A long-term population study","volume":"42","author":"AP Hall","year":"1967","journal-title":"Am J Med"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"549","DOI":"10.1007\/s10067-014-2520-7","article-title":"The degree of asymptomatic hyperuricemia and the risk of gout. A retrospective analysis of a large cohort","volume":"33","author":"H Duskin-Bitan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Clin Rheumatol"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref006","first-page":"87","article-title":"Trends in serum uric acid levels 1961\u20131980","volume":"26","author":"RJ Glynn","year":"1983","journal-title":"Arthritis Rheum"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"687","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a115184","article-title":"The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study: design and objectives","volume":"129","author":"The ARIC investigators","year":"1989","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1105","DOI":"10.1016\/0895-4356(88)90080-7","article-title":"CARDIA: study design, recruitment, and some characteristics of the examined subjects","volume":"4","author":"GD Friedman","year":"1988","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.41.3.279","article-title":"Epidemiological approaches to heart disease: the Framingham Study","volume":"41","author":"TR Dawber","year":"1951","journal-title":"Am J Public Health Nations Health"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1894","DOI":"10.1002\/acr.22896","article-title":"Survey Definitions of gout for epidemiologic studies: comparison with crystal identification as the gold standard","volume":"68","author":"N Dalbeth","year":"2016","journal-title":"Arthritis Care Res"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.3109\/03009734.2012.668143","article-title":"Regression dilution bias: tools for correction methods and sample size calculation","volume":"117","author":"L. Berglund","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ups J Med Sci"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"R116","DOI":"10.1186\/ar2519","article-title":"Menopause, postmenopausal hormone use and serum uric acid levels in US women\u2014the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey","volume":"10","author":"AE Hak","year":"2008","journal-title":"Arthritis Res Ther"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"391","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1445-5994.1983.tb04489.x","article-title":"Seasonal variation in serum urate levels","volume":"13","author":"LA Simons","year":"1983","journal-title":"Aust N Z J Med"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1136\/jcp.45.2.110","article-title":"Importance of diurnal variations on clinical value and interpretation of serum urate measurements","volume":"45","author":"MS Devgun","year":"1992","journal-title":"J Clin Pathol"},{"key":"pone.0263175.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1136\/eb-2013-101243","article-title":"The two-step Fagan\u2019s nomogram: ad hoc interpretation of a diagnostic test result without calculation","volume":"18","author":"CGB Caraguel","year":"2013","journal-title":"Evidence Based Med"}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0263175","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,1]],"date-time":"2022-02-01T18:27:45Z","timestamp":1643740065000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0263175"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Pal Bela","family":"Szecsi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,1]]},"references-count":15,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0263175","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,1]]}}}