{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,20]],"date-time":"2026-08-20T14:29:45Z","timestamp":1787236185357,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,3]],"date-time":"2022-02-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1643846400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100011094","name":"Public Health Agency of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100011094","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    The incidence of Lyme disease is increasing in Qu\u00e9bec and is closely linked to the distribution of\n                    <jats:italic>Ixodes scapularis<\/jats:italic>\n                    ticks. A time-to-establishment model developed in 2012 by Leighton and colleagues predicted the year of tick population establishment for each municipality in eastern Canada. To validate if this model correctly predicted tick distribution in Qu\u00e9bec, predicted tick establishment was compared to field data from active tick surveillance (2010\u20132018) using two criteria: i) the detection of at least one tick and ii) the detection of the three questing stages of the tick. The speed of tick establishment and the increase in the exposed human population by 2100 were predicted with the time-to-establishment model. Field observations were consistent with model predictions. Ticks were detected on average 3 years after the predicted year. The probability of tick detection is significantly higher after the predicted year than before (61% vs 27% of collections). The trend was similar for the detection of three tick stages (16% vs 9% of collections). The average speed of tick range expansion was estimated by the model to be 18 km\/year in Qu\u00e9bec, with 90% of the human population exposed by 2027. The validation of the time-to-establishment model using field data confirmed that it could be used to project\n                    <jats:italic>I<\/jats:italic>\n                    .\n                    <jats:italic>scapularis<\/jats:italic>\n                    range expansion in Qu\u00e9bec, and consequently the increase in Lyme disease risk over the coming decades. This will help public health authorities anticipate and adapt preventive measures, especially in areas not yet affected by Lyme disease.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0263243","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,3]],"date-time":"2022-02-03T13:41:42Z","timestamp":1643895702000},"page":"e0263243","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Current and future distribution of Ixodes scapularis ticks in Qu\u00e9bec: Field validation of a predictive model"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9923-8806","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Marion","family":"Ripoche","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Catherine","family":"Bouchard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alejandra","family":"Irace-Cima","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patrick","family":"Leighton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karine","family":"Thivierge","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,3]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4552","key":"pone.0263243.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1317","DOI":"10.1126\/science.7043737","article-title":"Lyme disease-a tick-borne spirochetosis?","volume":"216","author":"W Burgdorfer","year":"1982","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pone.0263243.ref002","unstructured":"Public Health Agency of Canada. Surveillance de la maladie de Lyme [Internet]. 2020. Disponible sur: https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/fr\/sante-publique\/services\/maladies\/maladie-lyme\/surveillance-maladie-lyme.html."},{"issue":"756","key":"pone.0263243.ref003","first-page":"693","article-title":"The increasing risk of Lyme disease in Canada","volume":"56","author":"C Bouchard","year":"2015","journal-title":"Can Vet J"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0263243.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.14745\/ccdr.v45i04a02","article-title":"Increased risk of tick-borne diseases with climate and environmental changes","volume":"45","author":"C Bouchard","year":"2019","journal-title":"Can Commun Dis Rep"},{"key":"pone.0263243.ref005","unstructured":"Institut national de sant\u00e9 publique du Qu\u00e9bec. Proposition d\u2019un programme de surveillance int\u00e9gr\u00e9 pour la maladie de Lyme et les autres maladies transmises par la tique\u2014Mise \u00e0 jour 2015. 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Montr\u00e9al, QC, Canada; 2019."},{"key":"pone.0263243.ref010","unstructured":"Institut national de sant\u00e9 publique du Qu\u00e9bec. R\u00e9sultats annuels de surveillance de la maladie de Lyme. Ann\u00e9e 2019. Montr\u00e9al, QC, Canada; 2020."},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0263243.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S191","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182003004694","article-title":"Lyme borreliosis in Europe and North America","volume":"129","author":"J Piesman","year":"2004","journal-title":"Parasitology"},{"key":"pone.0263243.ref012","first-page":"1627","article-title":"Consensus conference on Lyme disease","volume":"144","author":"Health Canada","year":"1991","journal-title":"Can Med Assoc J"},{"key":"pone.0263243.ref013","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Assessment of a screening test to identify Lyme disease risk","author":"N Ogden","year":"2014"},{"key":"pone.0263243.ref014","unstructured":"Institut national de sant\u00e9 publique du Qu\u00e9bec. 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