{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,5]],"date-time":"2026-08-05T10:38:14Z","timestamp":1785926294435,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":95,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,8]],"date-time":"2022-07-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1657238400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Frederick S. Pardee"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of human development. In this manuscript we analyze the long-term effect of COVID-19 on poverty at the country-level across various income thresholds to 2050. We do this by introducing eight quantitative scenarios that model the future of Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG1) achievement using alternative assumptions about COVID-19 effects on both economic growth and inequality in the International Futures model. Relative to a scenario without the pandemic (the <jats:italic>No COVID<\/jats:italic> scenario), the <jats:italic>COVID Base<\/jats:italic> scenario increases global extreme poverty by 73.9 million in 2020 (the range across all scenarios: 43.5 to 155.0 million), 63.6 million in 2030 (range: 9.8 to 167.2 million) and 57.1 million in 2050 (range: 3.1 to 163.0 million). The <jats:italic>COVID Base<\/jats:italic> results in seven more countries not meeting the SDG1 target by 2030 that would have achieved the target in a <jats:italic>No COVID<\/jats:italic> scenario. The most pessimistic scenario results in 17 more countries not achieving SDG1 compared with a <jats:italic>No COVID<\/jats:italic> scenario. The greatest pandemic driven increases in poverty occur in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0270846","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,8]],"date-time":"2022-07-08T17:54:10Z","timestamp":1657302850000},"page":"e0270846","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":50,"title":["How many people is the COVID-19 pandemic pushing into poverty? 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