{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T15:12:07Z","timestamp":1792422727825,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,20]],"date-time":"2022-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1658275200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Dengue fever is a severe disease spread by Aedes mosquito-borne dengue viruses (DENVs) in tropical areas such as Bangladesh. Since its breakout in the 1960s, dengue fever has been endemic in Bangladesh, with the highest concentration of infections in the capital, Dhaka. This study aims to develop a machine learning model that can use relevant information about the factors that cause Dengue outbreaks within a geographic region. To predict dengue cases in 11 different districts of Bangladesh, we created a DengueBD dataset and employed two machine learning algorithms, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). This research also explores the correlation among environmental factors like temperature, rainfall, and humidity with the rise and decline trend of Dengue cases in different cities of Bangladesh. The entire dataset was divided into an 80:20 ratio, with 80 percent used for training and 20% used for testing. The research findings imply that, for both the MLR with 67% accuracy along with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 4.57 and SVR models with 75% accuracy along with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 4.95, the number of dengue cases reduces throughout the winter season in the country and increases mainly during the rainy season in the next ten months, from August 2021 to May 2022. Importantly, Dhaka, Bangladesh\u2019s capital, will see the maximum number of dengue patients during this period. Overall, the results of this data-driven analysis show that machine learning algorithms have enormous potential for predicting dengue epidemics.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0270933","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,20]],"date-time":"2022-07-20T13:37:48Z","timestamp":1658324268000},"page":"e0270933","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":61,"title":["Prediction of dengue incidents using hospitalized patients, metrological and socio-economic data in Bangladesh: A machine learning approach"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7999-8576","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Samrat Kumar","family":"Dey","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Md. Mahbubur","family":"Rahman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Arpita","family":"Howlader","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Umme Raihan","family":"Siddiqi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Khandaker Mohammad Mohi","family":"Uddin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rownak","family":"Borhan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9616-6624","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Elias Ur","family":"Rahman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0270933.ref001","unstructured":"Dengue and severe dengue. [cited 9 Nov 2021]. Available: https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/dengue-and-severe-dengue"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0220106","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0220106","article-title":"Forecasting dengue fever in Brazil: An assessment of climate conditions","volume":"14","author":"LM Stolerman","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLOS ONE"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-323-82501-6.00002-5","volume-title":"Zika and Other Neglected and Emerging Flaviviruses","author":"LA Beltz","year":"2021"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0008349","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008349","article-title":"Dengue in a crowded megacity: Lessons learnt from 2019 outbreak in Dhaka, Bangladesh","volume":"14","author":"MS Hossain","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0006935","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006935","article-title":"Statistical modeling of the effect of rainfall flushing on dengue transmission in Singapore","volume":"12","author":"CM Benedum","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref006","first-page":"32","article-title":"Climatic factors influencing dengue cases in Dhaka city: A model for dengue prediction","volume":"136","author":"Munshi SU Karim MdN","year":"2012","journal-title":"Indian J Med Res"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e3516284","DOI":"10.1155\/2019\/3516284","article-title":"Dengue Situation in Bangladesh: An Epidemiological Shift in terms of Morbidity and Mortality","volume":"2019","author":"P Mutsuddy","year":"2019","journal-title":"Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref008","article-title":"Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus Mosquito Life Cycles | CDC","author":"CDC","year":"2020","journal-title":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [Internet]"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"S Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7460","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1101377108","article-title":"Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti.","volume":"108","author":"L Lambrechts","year":"2011","journal-title":"PNAS"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2337","DOI":"10.3389\/fmicb.2017.02337","article-title":"Temperature Increase Enhances Aedes albopictus Competence to Transmit Dengue Virus","volume":"8","author":"Z Liu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Frontiers in Microbiology"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"291","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1574-695X.1997.tb01058.x","article-title":"Impact of dengue virus infection and its control","volume":"18","author":"A. Igarashi","year":"1997","journal-title":"FEMS Immunology & Medical Microbiology"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3201","DOI":"10.1007\/s00436-015-4656-z","article-title":"Plant-borne ovicides in the fight against mosquito vectors of medical and veterinary importance: a systematic review","volume":"114","author":"G. Benelli","year":"2015","journal-title":"Parasitol Res"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1258","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001258","article-title":"Prediction of Dengue Incidence Using Search Query Surveillance","volume":"5","author":"BM Althouse","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41426-018-0168-0","article-title":"Dengue virus and the host innate immune response","volume":"7","author":"N Uno","year":"2018","journal-title":"Emerging Microbes & Infections"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114003","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac2b60","article-title":"Dengue transmission risk in a changing climate: Bangladesh is likely to experience a longer dengue fever season in the future","volume":"16","author":"KK Paul","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ Res Lett"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0000047","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pgph.0000047","article-title":"Prediction of dengue annual incidence using seasonal climate variability in Bangladesh between 2000 and 2018","volume":"2","author":"MP Hossain","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLOS Global Public Health"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref018","first-page":"501","volume-title":"Advances in Distributed Computing and Machine Learning","author":"Springer","year":"2021"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5459","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-09489-y","article-title":"Prediction of dengue fever outbreaks using climate variability and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques in a stochastic susceptible-infected-removed model","volume":"12","author":"TK Martheswaran","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Rep."},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref020","article-title":"DengueBD","author":"SK Dey","year":"2022","journal-title":"Harvard Dataverse"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref021","unstructured":"Ltd CHW-A-C. Bangladesh weather averages | Best time to go | Weather-2-Visit. [cited 9 Nov 2021]. Available: https:\/\/www.weather2visit.com\/asia\/bangladesh\/"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e5587188","DOI":"10.1155\/2021\/5587188","article-title":"Machine Learning-Based Model to Predict the Disease Severity and Outcome in COVID-19 Patients","volume":"2021","author":"SS Aljameel","year":"2021","journal-title":"Scientific Programming"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1023\/B:STCO.0000035301.49549.88","article-title":"A tutorial on support vector regression","volume":"14","author":"AJ Smola","year":"2004","journal-title":"Statistics and Computing"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-0955-3_4","volume-title":"Applied Multivariate Data Analysis: Regression and Experimental Design","author":"JD Jobson","year":"1991"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref025","unstructured":"A Tutorial on Support Vector Machines for Pattern Recognition | SpringerLink. [cited 18 May 2022]. Available: https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1023\/A:1009715923555"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20201006","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2020.1006","article-title":"A dynamic, ensemble learning approach to forecast dengue fever epidemic years in Brazil using weather and population susceptibility cycles","volume":"18","author":"SF McGough","journal-title":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref027","first-page":"1","article-title":"Dengue Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms","author":"D Sarma","year":"2020","journal-title":"2020 IEEE 8th R10 Humanitarian Technology Conference (R10-HTC)"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"939","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-79193-2","article-title":"Prediction of dengue outbreak in Selangor Malaysia using machine learning techniques","volume":"11","author":"NAM Salim","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Rep."},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9689","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-66650-1","article-title":"Predicting dengue importation into Europe, using machine learning and model-agnostic methods","volume":"10","author":"D Salami","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005973","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005973","article-title":"Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China","volume":"11","author":"P Guo","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"52","DOI":"10.1109\/MC.2016.292","article-title":"From Swarm Intelligence to Metaheuristics: Nature-Inspired Optimization Algorithms","volume":"49","author":"X-S Yang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Computer"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107250","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cie.2021.107250","article-title":"Aquila Optimizer: A novel meta-heuristic optimization algorithm","volume":"157","author":"L Abualigah","year":"2021","journal-title":"Computers & Industrial Engineering"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16150","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2022.3147821","article-title":"Ebola Optimization Search Algorithm: A New Nature-Inspired Metaheuristic Optimization Algorithm","volume":"10","author":"ON Oyelade","year":"2022","journal-title":"IEEE Access"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114570","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cma.2022.114570","article-title":"Dwarf Mongoose Optimization Algorithm","volume":"391","author":"JO Agushaka","year":"2022","journal-title":"Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering"},{"key":"pone.0270933.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"116158","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eswa.2021.116158","article-title":"Reptile Search Algorithm (RSA): A nature-inspired meta-heuristic optimizer","volume":"191","author":"L Abualigah","year":"2022","journal-title":"Expert Systems with Applications"}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0270933","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,20]],"date-time":"2022-07-20T13:38:17Z","timestamp":1658324297000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0270933"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Debotosh","family":"Bhattacharjee","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,20]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,20]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0270933","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,20]]}}}