{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]],"date-time":"2026-07-09T04:14:28Z","timestamp":1783570468851,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,16]],"date-time":"2022-11-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1668556800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The norovirus is a major cause of acute gastroenteritis at all ages but particularly has a high chance of affecting children under the age of five. Given that the outbreak of norovirus in Korea is seasonal, it is important to try and predict the start and end of norovirus outbreaks.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>We predicted weekly norovirus warnings using six machine learning algorithms using test data from 2017 to 2018 and training data from 2009 to 2016. In addition, we proposed a novel method for the early detection of norovirus using a calculated norovirus risk index. Further, feature importance was calculated to evaluate the contribution of the estimated weekly norovirus warnings.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The long short-term memory machine learning (LSTM) algorithm proved to be the best algorithm for predicting weekly norovirus warnings, with 97.2% and 92.5% accuracy in the training and test data, respectively. The LSTM algorithm predicted the observed start and end weeks of the early detection of norovirus within a 3-week range.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The results of this study show that early detection can provide important insights for the preparation and control of norovirus outbreaks by the government. Our method provides indicators of high-risk weeks. In particular, last norovirus detection rate, minimum temperature, and day length, play critical roles in estimating weekly norovirus warnings.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0277671","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,16]],"date-time":"2022-11-16T18:36:41Z","timestamp":1668623801000},"page":"e0277671","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Early detection of norovirus outbreak using machine learning methods in South Korea"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Sieun","family":"Lee","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eunhae","family":"Cho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Geunsoo","family":"Jang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4408-2904","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sangil","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5756-2106","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Giphil","family":"Cho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0277671.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"668","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/119.6.668","article-title":"Winter vomiting disease","volume":"119","author":"JL Adler","year":"1969","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref002","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","journal-title":"The symptoms of norovirus"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1260","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1908.130472","article-title":"Duration of immunity to Norovirus gastroenteritis","volume":"19","author":"K Simmons","year":"2013","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref004","first-page":"1","article-title":"Updated Norovirus outbreak management and disease prevention guidelines.","volume":"60","author":"AJ Hall","year":"2011","journal-title":"Morb Mortal Wkly Rep Recomm Rep"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref005","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","journal-title":"Norovirus worldwide"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2017.10.032","article-title":"Development of genetic programming-based model for predicting oyster Norovirus outbreak risks","volume":"128","author":"SS Chenar","year":"2018","journal-title":"Water Res"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"212","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2017.11.032","article-title":"Development of artificial intelligence approach to forecasting oyster Norovirus outbreaks along Gulf of Mexico coast","volume":"111","author":"SS Chenar","year":"2018","journal-title":"Environ Int"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"254","DOI":"10.2166\/wh.2021.251","article-title":"Hybrid modeling and prediction of oyster Norovirus outbreaks.","volume":"19","author":"SS Chenar","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Water Health"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"170602","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.170602","article-title":"Quantifying the relative effects of environmental and direct transmission of Norovirus.","volume":"5","author":"S Towers","year":"2018","journal-title":"R Soc Open Sci"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5565","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2018.07.053","article-title":"Modelling Norovirus transmission and vaccination","volume":"36","author":"KAM Gaythorpe","year":"2018","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref011","author":"Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency","journal-title":"Portal"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref012","author":"The Washington post","journal-title":"Norovirus outbreak at PyeongChang Olympic venues leads to staff quarantine"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref013","first-page":"622","article-title":"Characteristics of Norovirus food poisoning outbreaks in Korea over the past ten years and the relation with climate factors","volume":"45","author":"JG Kim","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Environ Health Sci"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"700","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1348-0421.2012.00494.x","article-title":"Characterization of Norovirus infections in Seoul, Korea.","volume":"56","author":"S Park","year":"2012","journal-title":"Microbiol Immunol"},{"key":"pone.0277671.ref015","unstructured":"Korean Statiatical Information Service. 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