{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,26]],"date-time":"2026-09-26T10:15:42Z","timestamp":1790417742291,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":183,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,15]],"date-time":"2023-03-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1678838400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/publicdomain\/zero\/1.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service","award":["F430-C-16-0017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["F430-C-16-0017"]}]},{"name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service","award":["F430-c-17-0022"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["F430-c-17-0022"]}]},{"name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service","award":["11-CA-11120101-020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["11-CA-11120101-020"]}]},{"name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service","award":["13-CA-11120101-037"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["13-CA-11120101-037"]}]},{"name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service","award":["F430-C-17-0020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["F430-C-17-0020"]}]},{"name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service","award":["19-CS-11120101-012"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["19-CS-11120101-012"]}]},{"name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service","award":["19-JV-11120101-037"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["19-JV-11120101-037"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["42022060"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42022060"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004377","name":"The Hong Kong Polytechnic University","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["ZVN6"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ZVN6"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004377","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004377","name":"The Hong Kong Polytechnic University","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["ZVVF"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ZVVF"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004377","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Uncertainties about controls on tree mortality make forest responses to land-use and climate change difficult to predict. We tracked biomass of tree functional groups in tropical forest inventories across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and with random forests we ranked 86 potential predictors of small tree survival (young or mature stems 2.5\u201312.6 cm diameter at breast height). Forests span dry to cloud forests, range in age, geology and past land use and experienced severe drought and storms. When excluding species as a predictor, top predictors are tree crown ratio and height, two to three species traits and stand to regional factors reflecting local disturbance and the system state (widespread recovery, drought, hurricanes). Native species, and species with denser wood, taller maximum height, or medium typical height survive longer, but short trees and species survive hurricanes better. Trees survive longer in older stands and with less disturbed canopies, harsher geoclimates (dry, edaphically dry, <jats:italic>e<\/jats:italic>.<jats:italic>g<\/jats:italic>., serpentine substrates, and highest-elevation cloud forest), or in intervals removed from hurricanes. Satellite image phenology and bands, even from past decades, are top predictors, being sensitive to vegetation type and disturbance. Covariation between stand-level species traits and geoclimate, disturbance and neighboring species types may explain why most neighbor variables, including introduced <jats:italic>vs<\/jats:italic>. native species, had low or no importance, despite univariate correlations with survival. As forests recovered from a hurricane in 1998 and earlier deforestation, small trees of introduced species, which on average have lighter wood, died at twice the rate of natives. After hurricanes in 2017, the total biomass of trees \u226512.7 cm dbh of the introduced species <jats:italic>Spathodea campanulata<\/jats:italic> spiked, suggesting that more frequent hurricanes might perpetuate this light-wooded species commonness. If hurricane recovery favors light-wooded species while drought favors others, climate change influences on forest composition and ecosystem services may depend on the frequency and severity of extreme climate events.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0280322","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,15]],"date-time":"2023-03-15T17:27:22Z","timestamp":1678901242000},"page":"e0280322","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Multiscale predictors of small tree survival across a heterogeneous tropical landscape"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3731-0056","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Eileen H.","family":"Helmer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shannon","family":"Kay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Humfredo","family":"Marcano-Vega","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jennifer S.","family":"Powers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tana E.","family":"Wood","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6967-786X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Xiaolin","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Gwenzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas S.","family":"Ruzycki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0280322.ref001","article-title":"Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress","author":"D Bauman","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"30","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1635","article-title":"Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress","volume":"3","author":"WRL Anderegg","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature Clim Change"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"531","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0240-x","article-title":"Triggers of tree mortality under drought","volume":"558","author":"B Choat","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0169770","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0169770","article-title":"Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality","volume":"12","author":"Q Zhang","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"660","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foreco.2009.09.001","article-title":"A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests","volume":"259","author":"CD Allen","year":"2010","journal-title":"Forest Ecology and Management"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref006","article-title":"Using terrestrial laser scanning to constrain forest ecosystem structure and functions in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2.2)","author":"F Meunier","year":"2021","journal-title":"Biogeosciences"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"355","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266467400001450","article-title":"Impact of severe drought associated with the 1997\u20131998 El Ni\u00f1o in a tropical forest in Sarawak","volume":"16","author":"M Nakagawa","year":"2000","journal-title":"J Trop Ecol"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"631","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-8137.2010.03359.x","article-title":"Drought-mortality relationships for tropical forests","volume":"187","author":"OL Phillips","year":"2010","journal-title":"New Phytologist"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114","DOI":"10.1007\/s00442-004-1635-y","article-title":"El Ni\u00f1o droughts and their effects on tree species composition and diversity in tropical rain forests","volume":"141","author":"JWF Slik","year":"2004","journal-title":"Oecologia"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3122","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15037","article-title":"A catastrophic tropical drought kills hydraulically vulnerable tree species","volume":"26","author":"JS Powers","year":"2020","journal-title":"Glob Change Biol"},{"key":"pone.0280322.ref011","first-page":"nph.17914","article-title":"The other side of tropical forest drought: do shallow water table regions of Amazonia act as large\u2010scale hydrological refugia from drought? 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