{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T14:09:35Z","timestamp":1740146975632,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,12]],"date-time":"2024-01-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1705017600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5 K23 EY032204-02"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5 K23 EY032204-02"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100001818","name":"Research to Prevent Blindness","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Unrestricted grant"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Unrestricted grant"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100001818","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Linear regression of optical coherence tomography measurements of peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness is often used to detect glaucoma progression and forecast future disease course. However, current measurement frequencies suggest that clinicians often apply linear regression to a relatively small number of measurements (e.g., less than a handful). In this study, we estimate the accuracy of linear regression in predicting the next reliable measurement of average retinal nerve fiber layer thickness using Zeiss Cirrus optical coherence tomography measurements of average retinal nerve fiber layer thickness from a sample of 6,471 eyes with glaucoma or glaucoma-suspect status. Linear regression is compared to two null models: no glaucoma worsening, and worsening due to aging. Linear regression on the first M \u2265 2 measurements was significantly worse at predicting a reliable M+1<jats:sup>st<\/jats:sup> measurement for 2 \u2264 M \u2264 6. This range was reduced to 2 \u2264 M \u2264 5 when retinal nerve fiber layer thickness measurements were first \u201ccorrected\u201d for scan quality. Simulations based on measurement frequencies in our sample\u2014on average 393 \u00b1 190 days between consecutive measurements\u2014show that linear regression outperforms both null models when M \u2265 5 and the goal is to forecast moderate (75<jats:sup>th<\/jats:sup> percentile) worsening, and when M \u2265 3 for rapid (90<jats:sup>th<\/jats:sup> percentile) worsening. If linear regression is used to assess disease trajectory with a small number of measurements over short time periods (e.g., 1\u20132 years), as is often the case in clinical practice, the number of optical coherence tomography examinations needs to be increased.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0296674","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,12]],"date-time":"2024-01-12T18:33:48Z","timestamp":1705084428000},"page":"e0296674","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Assessment of linear regression of peripapillary optical coherence tomography retinal nerve fiber layer measurements to forecast glacuoma trajectory"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7663-6759","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Chris","family":"Bradley","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5534-8341","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Kaihua","family":"Hou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Patrick","family":"Herbert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mathias","family":"Unberath","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Greg","family":"Hager","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2506-7095","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Michael V.","family":"Boland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Pradeep","family":"Ramulu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jithin","family":"Yohannan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0296674.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2081","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2014.05.013","article-title":"Global Prevalence of Glaucoma and Projections of Glaucoma Burden through 2040","volume":"121","author":"YC Tham","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"key":"pone.0296674.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5741","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.09-3715","article-title":"Detection of glaucoma progression with Stratus OCT retinal nerve fiber layer, optic nerve head, and macular thickness measurements","volume":"50","author":"FA Medeiros","year":"2009","journal-title":"Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci"},{"key":"pone.0296674.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1350","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2014.01.017","article-title":"Rates of Retinal Nerve Fiber layer Thickness in Glaucoma Suspect Eyes","volume":"121","author":"A Miki","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"key":"pone.0296674.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajo.2019.11.002","article-title":"Ganglion Cell-Inner Plexiform Layer and Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Changes in Glaucoma Suspects Enable Prediction of Glaucoma Development","volume":"210","author":"JW Shin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Am J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"pone.0296674.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2005.10.005","article-title":"Errors in Retinal Thickness Measurements Obtained by Optical Coherence Tomography","volume":"113","author":"SR Sadda","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"key":"pone.0296674.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1461","DOI":"10.1136\/bjo.2008.155846","article-title":"Accuracy of retinal thickness measurements obtained with Cirrus optical coherence tomography","volume":"93","author":"PA Keane","year":"2009","journal-title":"Br J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"pone.0296674.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5724","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.10-5222","article-title":"Reproducibility of peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness and optic nerve head parameters measured with cirrus HD-OCT in glaucomatous eyes","volume":"51","author":"JC Mwanza","year":"2010","journal-title":"Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0296674.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e109","DOI":"10.1097\/IJG.0000000000000203","article-title":"Test-Rest Variability of Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Thickness and Macular Ganglion Cell-Inner Plesiform Layer Thickness Measurements Using Spectral-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography","volume":"24","author":"M Wadhwani","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. 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