{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,14]],"date-time":"2026-09-14T18:53:09Z","timestamp":1789411989667,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,21]],"date-time":"2024-05-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1716249600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Southern California Permanente Medical Group"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background and aims<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Population-based screening for gastric cancer (GC) in low prevalence nations is not recommended. The objective of this study was to develop a risk-prediction model to identify high-risk patients who could potentially benefit from targeted screening in a racial\/ethnically diverse regional US population.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>We performed a retrospective cohort study from Kaiser Permanente Southern California from January 2008-June 2018 among individuals age \u226550 years. Patients with prior GC or follow-up &lt;30 days were excluded. Censoring occurred at GC, death, age 85 years, disenrollment, end of 5-year follow-up, or study conclusion. Cross-validated LASSO regression models were developed to identify the strongest of 20 candidate predictors (clinical, demographic, and laboratory parameters). Records from 12 of the medical service areas were used for training\/initial validation while records from a separate medical service area were used for testing.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>1,844,643 individuals formed the study cohort (1,555,392 training and validation, 289,251 testing). Mean age was 61.9 years with 53.3% female. GC incidence was 2.1 (95% CI 2.0\u20132.2) cases per 10,000 person-years (pyr). Higher incidence was seen with family history: 4.8\/10,000 pyr, history of gastric ulcer: 5.3\/10,000 pyr, <jats:italic>H<\/jats:italic>. <jats:italic>pylori<\/jats:italic>: 3.6\/10,000 pyr and anemia: 5.3\/10,000 pyr. The final model included age, gender, race\/ethnicity, smoking, proton-pump inhibitor, family history of gastric cancer, history of gastric ulcer, <jats:italic>H<\/jats:italic>. <jats:italic>pylori<\/jats:italic> infection, and baseline hemoglobin. The means and standard deviations (SD) of c-index in validation and testing datasets were 0.75 (SD 0.03) and 0.76 (SD 0.02), respectively.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>This prediction model may serve as an aid for pre-endoscopic assessment of GC risk for identification of a high-risk population that could benefit from targeted screening.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0303153","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,21]],"date-time":"2024-05-21T17:32:36Z","timestamp":1716312756000},"page":"e0303153","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Stomach Cancer Prediction Model (SCoPM): An approach to risk stratification in a diverse U.S. population"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3304-2704","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Bechien U.","family":"Wu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth Y.","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qiaoling","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5825-9248","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tiffany Q.","family":"Luong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6719-6090","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Eva","family":"Lustigova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5739-2477","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Christie Y.","family":"Jeon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wansu","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0303153.ref001","unstructured":"GLOBOCAN Cancer Fact Sheets: stomach Cancers. Available from: http:\/\/globocan.iarc.fr\/old\/FactSheets\/cancers\/stomach-new.asp."},{"key":"pone.0303153.ref002","unstructured":"Cancer Stat Facts: Stomach Cancer. Available from: https:\/\/seer.cancer.gov\/statfacts\/html\/stomach.html."},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0303153.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"921","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0142(20000215)88:4<921::AID-CNCR24>3.0.CO;2-S","article-title":"The National Cancer Data Base Report on poor survival of U.S. gastric carcinoma patients treated with gastrectomy: Fifth Edition American Joint Committee on Cancer staging, proximal disease, and the \"different disease\" hypothesis.","volume":"88","author":"SA Hundahl","year":"2000","journal-title":"Cancer"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0303153.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.5230\/jgc.2014.14.2.87","article-title":"Clinical practice guidelines for gastric cancer in Korea: an evidence-based approach.","volume":"14","author":"JH Lee","year":"2014","journal-title":"Journal of gastric cancer"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0303153.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"673","DOI":"10.1093\/jjco\/hyy077","article-title":"Update version of the Japanese Guidelines for Gastric Cancer Screening","volume":"48","author":"Guideline Development Group for Gastric Cancer Screening G","year":"2018","journal-title":"Japanese journal of clinical oncology"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0303153.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(08)70072-X","article-title":"Screening for gastric cancer in Asia: current evidence and practice","volume":"9","author":"WK Leung","year":"2008","journal-title":"The Lancet Oncology"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0303153.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.2183\/pjab.90.251","article-title":"Strategies for eliminating death from gastric cancer in Japan","volume":"90","author":"M Asaka","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Japan Academy Series B, Physical and biological sciences"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0303153.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"190","DOI":"10.1097\/MCG.0000000000000466","article-title":"The Influence of Gastric Cancer Screening on the Stage at Diagnosis and Survival: A Meta-Analysis of Comparative Studies in the Far East.","volume":"50","author":"E Khanderia","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of clinical gastroenterology"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0303153.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"608","DOI":"10.1038\/bjc.2014.608","article-title":"Effect of endoscopy screening on stage at gastric cancer diagnosis: results of the National Cancer Screening Programme in Korea","volume":"112","author":"KS Choi","year":"2015","journal-title":"British journal of cancer"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0303153.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"135","DOI":"10.5230\/jgc.2011.11.3.135","article-title":"Gastric cancer epidemiology in Korea","volume":"11","author":"A Shin","year":"2011","journal-title":"Journal of gastric cancer"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0303153.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1319","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2017.01.029","article-title":"Effectiveness of the Korean National Cancer Screening Program in Reducing Gastric Cancer Mortality","volume":"152","author":"JK Jun","year":"2017","journal-title":"Gastroenterology"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0303153.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"511","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cgh.2016.11.033","article-title":"Racial and Ethnic Minorities at Increased Risk for Gastric Cancer in a Regional US Population Study","volume":"15","author":"E Dong","year":"2017","journal-title":"Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology: the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0303153.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"519","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2018.146","article-title":"A Comprehensive Assessment of the Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the Incidence of Gastric Cancer in the United States, 1992\u20132014","volume":"51","author":"Q Yao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cancer research and treatment"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0303153.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1989","DOI":"10.14309\/ajg.0000000000000748","article-title":"Gastric Cancer Among American Indian and Alaska Native Populations in the United States, 2005\u20132016","volume":"115","author":"SC Melkonian","year":"2020","journal-title":"The American journal of gastroenterology"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0303153.ref015","first-page":"ooad039","article-title":"Research data warehouse: using electronic health records to conduct population-based observational studies.","volume":"6","author":"W Chen","year":"2023","journal-title":"JAMIA Open."},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0303153.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.7812\/TPP\/12-031","article-title":"Sociodemographic characteristics of members of a large, integrated health care system: comparison with US Census Bureau data.","volume":"16","author":"C Koebnick","year":"2012","journal-title":"The Permanente journal"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0303153.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"648","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2018.05.026","article-title":"Cost Effectiveness of Gastric Cancer Screening According to Race and Ethnicity","volume":"155","author":"M Saumoy","year":"2018","journal-title":"Gastroenterology"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0303153.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x","article-title":"Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso","volume":"58","author":"R. Tibshirani","year":"1996","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Series B Stat Methodol."},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0303153.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2237","DOI":"10.1002\/1097-0142(20001201)89:11<2237::AID-CNCR12>3.0.CO;2-9","article-title":"Is gastric carcinoma different between Japan and the United States?","volume":"89","author":"Y Noguchi","year":"2000","journal-title":"Cancer"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0303153.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cgh.2014.07.043","article-title":"A tool to predict risk for gastric cancer in patients with peptic ulcer disease on the basis of a nationwide cohort","volume":"13","author":"TY Lee","year":"2015","journal-title":"Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology: the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0303153.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"598","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.29411","article-title":"Healthy lifestyle index and risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in the EPIC cohort study","volume":"137","author":"G Buckland","year":"2015","journal-title":"International journal of cancer"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0303153.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4500","DOI":"10.1007\/s10620-021-07309-3","article-title":"Risk Score Using Demographic and Clinical Risk Factors Predicts Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia Risk in a U.S. Population","volume":"67","author":"MC Tan","year":"2022","journal-title":"Digestive diseases and sciences"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0303153.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1251","DOI":"10.1080\/14737159.2023.2277377","article-title":"A systematic review and meta-analysis on the relative and attributable risk of Helicobacter pylori infection and cardia and non-cardia gastric cancer","volume":"23","author":"J Gu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Expert Rev Mol Diagn"},{"issue":"15","key":"pone.0303153.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers13153844","article-title":"Family History and Gastric Cancer Risk: A Pooled Investigation in the Stomach Cancer Pooling (STOP) Project Consortium.","volume":"13","author":"F Vitelli-Storelli","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cancers (Basel)."},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0303153.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1007\/s10120-023-01459-1","article-title":"Dose-response association between cigarette smoking and gastric cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"27","author":"M Rota","year":"2024","journal-title":"Gastric cancer: official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0303153.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2017-314605","article-title":"Long-term proton pump inhibitors and risk of gastric cancer development after treatment for Helicobacter pylori: a population-based study","volume":"67","author":"KS Cheung","year":"2018","journal-title":"Gut"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0303153.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"242","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199607253350404","article-title":"The risk of stomach cancer in patients with gastric or duodenal ulcer disease","volume":"335","author":"LE Hansson","year":"1996","journal-title":"The New England journal of medicine"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0303153.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"39","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.10659","article-title":"Vegetables, fruit and risk of gastric cancer in Japan: a 10-year follow-up of the JPHC Study Cohort I","volume":"102","author":"M Kobayashi","year":"2002","journal-title":"International journal of cancer"}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0303153","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,21]],"date-time":"2024-05-21T17:32:56Z","timestamp":1716312776000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0303153"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Hee-Taik","family":"Kang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,21]]},"references-count":28,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,21]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0303153","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,21]]}}}