{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T14:05:50Z","timestamp":1789740350229,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,27]],"date-time":"2024-06-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1719446400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/publicdomain\/zero\/1.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U38-PS004646"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U38-PS004646"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U38-PS004646"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U38-PS004646"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U38-PS004646"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U38-PS004646"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U38-PS004646"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U38-PS004646"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) among high school students includes standard questions about sexual identity and sex of sexual contacts, but these questions are not consistently included in every state that conducts the survey. This study aimed to develop and apply a method to predict state-level proportions of high school students identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB) or reporting any same-sex sexual contacts in those states that did not include these questions in their 2017 YRBS.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>We used state-level high school YRBS data from 2013, 2015, and 2017. We defined two primary outcomes relating to self-reported LGB identity and reported same-sex sexual contacts. We developed machine learning models to predict the two outcomes based on other YRBS variables, and comparing different modeling approaches. We used a leave-one-out cross-validation approach and report results from best-performing models.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Modern ensemble models outperformed traditional linear models at predicting state-level proportions for the two outcomes, and we identified prediction methods that performed well across different years and prediction tasks. Predicted proportions of respondents reporting LGB identity in states that did not include direct measurement ranged between 9.4% and 12.9%. Predicted proportions of respondents reporting any same-sex contacts, where not directly observed, ranged between 7.0% and 10.4%.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Comparable population estimates of sexual minority adolescents can raise awareness among state policy makers and the public about what proportion of youth may be exposed to disparate health risks and outcomes associated with sexual minority status. This information can help decision makers in public health and education agencies design, implement and evaluate community and school interventions to improve the health of LGB youth.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0304175","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,27]],"date-time":"2024-06-27T21:03:24Z","timestamp":1719522204000},"page":"e0304175","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["State-level population estimates of sexual minority adolescents in the United States: A predictive modeling study"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"given":"Johannes O.","family":"Ferstad","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria","family":"Aslam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Li Yan","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katherine","family":"Henaghan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8382-961X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jiayi","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jingjing","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3929-5515","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Joshua A.","family":"Salomon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,27]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0304175.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"365","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jadohealth.2021.04.026","article-title":"A scoping review of adolescent health indicators.","volume":"69","author":"H Newby","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Adolesc Health"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0304175.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.ss6708a1","article-title":"Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance\u2014United States, 2017.","volume":"67","author":"L Kann","year":"2018","journal-title":"MMWR Surveill Summ."},{"key":"pone.0304175.ref003","first-page":"252","volume-title":"Handbook of psychology and sexual orientation","author":"IH Meyer","year":"2013"},{"key":"pone.0304175.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-09556-1_4","volume-title":"Contemporary perspectives on lesbian, gay, and bisexual identities.","author":"GM Herek","year":"2009"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0304175.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2013.301748","article-title":"Identifying sexual orientation health disparities in adolescents: analysis of pooled data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2005 and 2007.","volume":"104","author":"B Mustanski","year":"2014","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0304175.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.ss6509a1","article-title":"Sexual identity, sex of sexual contacts, and health-related behaviors among students in grades 9\u201312\u2014United States and selected sites, 2015.","volume":"65","author":"L Kann","year":"2016","journal-title":"MMWR Surveill Summ"},{"issue":"43","key":"pone.0304175.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1211","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6743a4","article-title":"Violence victimization, substance use, and suicide risk among sexual minority high school students\u2014United States, 2015\u20132017.","volume":"67","author":"MM Johns","year":"2018","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"issue":"36","key":"pone.0304175.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1007","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6736a3","article-title":"Sexual risk behavior differences among sexual minority high school students\u2014United States, 2015 and 2017.","volume":"67","author":"CN Rasberry","year":"2018","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0304175.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.su6901a1","article-title":"Overview and methods for the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System\u2014United States, 2019.","volume":"69","author":"JM Underwood","year":"2020","journal-title":"MMWR Suppl."},{"key":"pone.0304175.ref010","first-page":"2021","volume":"32","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2019","journal-title":"HIV Surveillance Report"},{"key":"pone.0304175.ref011","volume":"2023","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0304175.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"204.e1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajog.2013.06.036","article-title":"Sexual orientation differences in teen pregnancy and hormonal contraceptive use: an examination across 2 generations.","volume":"209","author":"BM Charlton","year":"2013","journal-title":"Am J Obstet Gynecol"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0304175.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"342","DOI":"10.1089\/lgbt.2018.0206","article-title":"Sexual orientation disparities in pregnancy risk behaviors and pregnancy among sexually active teenage girls: updates from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey.","volume":"6","author":"BG Everett","year":"2019","journal-title":"LGBT Health"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0304175.ref014","first-page":"1","article-title":"Youth risk behavior surveillance\u2014United States, 2013.","volume":"63","author":"L Kann","year":"2014","journal-title":"MMWR Suppl."},{"key":"pone.0304175.ref015","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2018","journal-title":"Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) 2017 National, State, and District Combined Dataset User\u2019s Guide 2017."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0304175.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.1109\/72.478409","article-title":"Confidence interval prediction for neural network models","volume":"7","author":"G Chryssolouris","year":"1996","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Neural Netw"},{"key":"pone.0304175.ref017","year":"2024","journal-title":"Prevention Policy Modeling Lab"},{"issue":"15","key":"pone.0304175.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8398","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1915006117","article-title":"Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration","volume":"117","author":"MJ Salganik","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0304175.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.su6901a3","article-title":"Trends in violence victimization and suicide risk by sexual identity among high school students\u2014Youth Risk Behavior Survey, United States, 2015\u20132019.","volume":"69","author":"MM Johns","year":"2020","journal-title":"MMWR Suppl."},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0304175.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1020","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapediatrics.2018.2140","article-title":"Nonconforming gender expression and associated mental distress and substance use among high school students","volume":"172","author":"R Lowry","year":"2018","journal-title":"JAMA Pediatr"},{"key":"pone.0304175.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1145\/1143844.1143865","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on machine learning.","author":"R Caruana","year":"2006"},{"key":"pone.0304175.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"128","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eswa.2017.04.003","article-title":"An up-to-date comparison of state-of-the-art classification algorithms","volume":"82","author":"C Zhang","year":"2017","journal-title":"Expert Systems with Applications"},{"issue":"S4","key":"pone.0304175.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S258","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2018.304407","article-title":"Bias from potentially mischievous responders on large-scale estimates of lesbian, gay, bisexual, or questioning (LGBQ)-heterosexual youth health disparities.","volume":"108","author":"JR Cimpian","year":"2018","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0304175.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"681","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwaa226","article-title":"leveraging technology to blend large-scale epidemiologic surveillance with social and behavioral science methods: successes, challenges, and lessons learned implementing the UNITE longitudinal cohort study of HIV risk factors among sexual minority men in the United States","volume":"190","author":"HJ Rendina","year":"2021","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0304175.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"345.e1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jadohealth.2004.06.002","article-title":"Measuring sexual orientation in adolescent health surveys: evaluation of eight school-based surveys.","volume":"35","author":"EM Saewyc","year":"2004","journal-title":"J Adolesc Health"},{"key":"pone.0304175.ref026","author":"National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine","year":"2022"}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0304175","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,27]],"date-time":"2024-06-27T21:03:46Z","timestamp":1719522226000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0304175"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Leona","family":"Cilar Budler","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,27]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,27]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0304175","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,27]]}}}