{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T05:40:03Z","timestamp":1787636403218,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,12]],"date-time":"2024-07-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1720742400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000071","name":"National Institute of Child Health and Human Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01HD107015"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01HD107015"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000071","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000071","name":"National Institute of Child Health and Human Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01HD090082"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01HD090082"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000071","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV-038624"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV-038624"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Estimates for cause-specific mortality for neonates are generally available for all countries for neonates overall (0 to 28 days). However, cause-specific mortality is generally not being estimated at higher age resolution for neonates, despite evidence of heterogeneity in the causes of deaths during this period. We aimed to use the adapted log quadratic model in a setting where verbal autopsy was the primary means of determining cause of death.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>We examined the timing and causes of death among a cohort of neonates in rural Nepal followed as part of the Nepal Oil Massage Study (NOMS). We adapted methods defined by Wilmoth et al (2012) and Guillot et al. (2022) to estimate age and cause-specific mortality among neonates. We used cross validation to estimate the accuracy of this model, holding out each three month period. We took the average cross validation across hold out as our measure of model performance and compared to a standard approach which did not account for the heterogeneity in cause-specific mortality rate within this age group.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>There were 957 neonates in the NOMS cohort with known age and cause of death. We estimated an average cross-validation error of 0.9 per 1000 live births for mortality due to prematurity in the first week, and 1.1 for mortality due to birth asphyxia, compared to the standard approach, having error 7.4 and 7.8 per 1000 live births, respectively. Generally mortality rates for less common causes such as congenital malformations and pneumonia were estimated with higher cross-validation error.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The stability and precision of these estimates compare favorably with similar estimates developed with higher quality cause-specific mortality surveillance from China, demonstrating that reliably estimating causes of mortality at high resolution is possible for neonates in low resources areas.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0304841","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,12]],"date-time":"2024-07-12T17:23:06Z","timestamp":1720804986000},"page":"e0304841","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Adapting the log quadratic model to estimate age- and cause-specific mortality among neonates"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5482-6620","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jamie","family":"Perin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Li","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luke C.","family":"Mullany","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James M.","family":"Tielsch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrea","family":"Verhulst","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michel","family":"Guillot","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joanne","family":"Katz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,12]]},"reference":[{"issue":"22022","key":"pone.0304841.ref001","first-page":"106","article-title":"Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000\u201319: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals","volume":"6","author":"Jamie Perin","journal-title":"The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health"},{"key":"pone.0304841.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-13-S3-S1","article-title":"Overview of the lives saved tool (LiST)","volume":"13","author":"N Walker","year":"2013","journal-title":"BMC public health"},{"issue":"10255","key":"pone.0304841.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"918","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)31761-X","article-title":"NCD Countdown 2030: pathways to achieving Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4","volume":"396","author":"JE Bennett","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0304841.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e195","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(21)00515-5","article-title":"Global, regional, and national trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2019 with scenario-based projections until 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation","volume":"10","author":"D. Sharrow","year":"2022","journal-title":"The Lancet Global Health"},{"issue":"no. 1","key":"pone.0304841.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.1215\/00703370-9709538","article-title":"Modeling age patterns of under-5 mortality: Results from a log-quadratic model applied to high-quality vital registration data","volume":"59","author":"Michel Guillot","year":"2022","journal-title":"Demography"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0304841.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1080\/00324728.2011.611411","article-title":"A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation","volume":"66","author":"John Wilmoth","year":"2012","journal-title":"Population studies"},{"issue":"no. 1","key":"pone.0304841.ref007","first-page":"1","article-title":"Adapting and validating the log quadratic model to derive under-five age-and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM): a preliminary analysis","volume":"20","author":"Jamie Perin","year":"2022","journal-title":"Population health metrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0304841.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e186","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(16)30334-5","article-title":"National and subnational levels and causes of child mortality in 1996\u20132015 in China: implications for the Sustainable Development Goals","volume":"5","author":"C He","year":"2017","journal-title":"The Lancet Global Health"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0304841.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0001072","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pgph.0001072","article-title":"Verbal Autopsy Methods to Describe Causes of Neonatal Mortality in a Community-based Setting of Southern Nepal, 2010\u20132017","volume":"2","author":"AR Saya","journal-title":"PLOS Glob Public Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0304841.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"652","DOI":"10.1186\/s12884-022-04974-8","article-title":"Risk and protective factors for small-and large-for-gestational-age from a prospective, population-based pregnancy cohort in rural Nepal: A secondary data analysis","volume":"22","author":"E Hazel","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMC Pregnancy Childbirth"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0304841.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-019-1333-6","article-title":"An integrated approach to processing WHO-2016 verbal autopsy data: the InterVA-5 model","volume":"17","author":"P Byass","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMC medicine"},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0304841.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1566","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(22)00337-0","article-title":"Divergent age patterns of under-5 mortality in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study","volume":"10","author":"A Verhulst","year":"2022","journal-title":"The Lancet global health"},{"key":"pone.0304841.ref013","unstructured":"R Core Team (2023). _R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing_. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. <https:\/\/www.R-project.org\/>."},{"issue":"9853","key":"pone.0304841.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1556","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)61878-9","article-title":"Global regional and national causes of child mortality","volume":"380","author":"B Modell","year":"2012","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0304841.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"958","DOI":"10.1038\/jp.2015.107","article-title":"Dangers of death on the first day of life by the minute","volume":"35","author":"N Auger","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Perinatology"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0304841.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e96294","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0096294","article-title":"Maternal and neonatal mortality in south-west Ethiopia: estimates and socio-economic inequality","volume":"9","author":"Y. Yaya","year":"2014","journal-title":"PloS one"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0304841.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"F439","DOI":"10.1136\/archdischild-2014-307636","article-title":"Cause-specific neonatal mortality: analysis of 3772 neonatal deaths in Nepal, Bangladesh, Malawi and India","volume":"100","author":"E. Fottrell","year":"2015","journal-title":"Archives of Disease in Childhood-Fetal and Neonatal Edition"},{"key":"pone.0304841.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.14.139790","article-title":"Neonatal cause-of-death estimates for the early and late neonatal periods for 194 countries: 2000\u20132013","volume":"93","author":"S Oza","year":"2014","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"issue":"5 Suppl","key":"pone.0304841.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.22-0319","article-title":"Multi-Cause Calibration of Verbal Autopsy\u2013Based Cause-Specific Mortality Estimates of Children and Neonates in Mozambique","volume":"108","author":"B. 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