{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,2]],"date-time":"2026-11-02T17:02:46Z","timestamp":1793638966534,"version":"4.5.1"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,11]],"date-time":"2024-09-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1726012800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Dengue outbreaks are common in tropical or temperate countries, and climate change can exacerbate the problem by creating conditions conducive to the spread of mosquitoes and prolonging the transmission season. Warmer temperatures can allow mosquitoes to mature faster and increase their ability to spread disease. Additionally, changes in rainfall patterns can create more standing water, providing a breeding ground for mosquitoes.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The objective of this study is to investigate the correlation between environmental and demographic factors and the dissemination of dengue fever. The study will use yearly data from 2000 to 2021 from 11 countries highly affected by dengue, considering multiple factors such as dengue cases, temperatures, precipitation, and population to better understand the impact of these variables on dengue transmission.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>In this research, Poisson regression (PR) and negative binomial regression (NBR) models are used to model count data and estimate the effect of different predictor variables on the outcome. Also, histogram plots and pairwise correlation plots are used to provide an initial overview of the distribution and relationship between the variables. Moreover, Goodness-of-fit tests, t-test analysis, diagnostic plots, influence plots, and residual vs. leverage plots are used to check the assumptions and validity of the models and identify any outliers or influential observations that may be affecting the results.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The findings indicate that mean temperature and log(Urban) had a positive impact on dengue infection rates, while maximum temperature, log(Precipitation), and population density had a negative impact. However, minimum temperature, log(Rural), and log(Total population) did not demonstrate any significant effects on the incidence of dengue.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec005\">\n<jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The impact of demographic-environmental factors on dengue outbreaks in 11 Asian countries is illuminated by this study. The results highlight the significance of mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax), log(Urban), log(Precipitation), and population density in influencing dengue incidence rates. However, further research is needed to gain a better understanding of the role of additional variables, such as immunity levels, awareness, and vector control measures, in the spread of dengue.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0305854","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,11]],"date-time":"2024-09-11T17:25:01Z","timestamp":1726075501000},"page":"e0305854","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Demographic-environmental effect on dengue outbreaks in 11 countries"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-0583-4045","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Anamul Haque","family":"Sajib","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-0888-7240","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sabina","family":"Akter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6467-298X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Goutam","family":"Saha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zakir","family":"Hossain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0305854.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2013.11.002","article-title":"Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh","volume":"63","author":"S Banu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Environment international"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101437","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tmaid.2019.06.008","article-title":"Spatial and temporal variation of dengue incidence in the island of Bali, Indonesia: An ecological study","volume":"32","author":"PW Dhewantara","year":"2019","journal-title":"Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoinf.2018.11.001","article-title":"Social-ecological modelling of the spatial distribution of dengue fever and its temporal dynamics in Guayaquil, Ecuador for climate change adaption","volume":"49","author":"G J\u00e1come","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecological Informatics"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105055","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2019.105055","article-title":"Developing a dengue prediction model based on climate in Tawau, Malaysia","volume":"197","author":"VJ Jayaraj","year":"2019","journal-title":"Acta Tropica"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2019.05.021","article-title":"Using dengue epidemics and local weather in Bali, Indonesia to predict imported dengue in Australia","volume":"175","author":"Z Xu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environmental Research"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109190","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2020.109190","article-title":"Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China","volume":"183","author":"K Liu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environmental Research"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138269","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138269","article-title":"Coherence of dengue incidence and climate in the wet and dry zones of Sri Lanka","volume":"724","author":"RR Prabodanie","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science of the Total Environment"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110285","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2020.110285","article-title":"Climate variability, socio-ecological factors and dengue transmission in tropical Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian spatial analysis","volume":"195","author":"R Akter","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environmental Research"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110900","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2021.110900","article-title":"Extreme weather conditions and dengue outbreak in Guangdong, China: Spatial heterogeneity based on climate variability","volume":"196","author":"J Cheng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environmental Research"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110849","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2021.110849","article-title":"A regional suitable conditions index to forecast the impact of climate change on dengue vectorial capacity","volume":"195","author":"C Davis","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environmental Research"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100063","DOI":"10.1016\/j.crpvbd.2021.100063","article-title":"Dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: Historic epidemic patterns suggest earlier mosquito control intervention in the transmission season could reduce the monthly growth factor and extent of epidemics","volume":"1","author":"N Haider","year":"2021","journal-title":"Current Research in Parasitology & Vector-Borne Diseases"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106136","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2021.106136","article-title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO","volume":"224","author":"E Mu\u00f1oz","year":"2021","journal-title":"Acta Tropica"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145117","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.145117","article-title":"The effects of maximum ambient temperature and heatwaves on dengue infections in the tropical city-state of Singapore\u2013A time series analysis","volume":"775","author":"A Seah","year":"2021","journal-title":"Science of the Total Environment"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107518","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2022.107518","article-title":"Impact of extreme weather on dengue fever infection in four Asian countries: A modeling analysis","volume":"169","author":"Y Wang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environment International"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S408","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gaceta.2021.10.063","article-title":"Climate factors and dengue fever occurrence in Makassar during period of 2011\u20132017","volume":"35","author":"A Susilawaty","year":"2021","journal-title":"Gaceta Sanitaria"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106657","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2022.106657","article-title":"Influence of hydroclimatic variability on dengue incidence in a tropical dryland area","volume":"235","author":"AC Costa","year":"2022","journal-title":"Acta Tropica"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"315","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-021-04785-4","article-title":"Dengue fever and insecticide resistance in Aedes mosquitoes in Southeast Asia: A review","volume":"14","author":"SJ Gan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e06979","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2021.e06979","article-title":"Effect of environmental and socio-economic factors on the spreading of COVID-19 at 70 cities\/provinces","volume":"7","author":"J Ahmed","year":"2021","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hilbe JM. Negative binomial regression. 2nd edition. Cambridge University Press. 2011;","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511973420"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref020","volume-title":"Selected papers of Hirotugu Akaike. Springer Series in Statistics","author":"H. Akaike","year":"1998"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref021","unstructured":"CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved on 3 May 2024. Link: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/dengue\/transmission\/index.html"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0305854.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0009631","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009631","article-title":"The role of urbanisation in the spread of Aedes mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit-A systematic review","volume":"15","author":"A Kolimenakis","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0305854.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.3329\/jom.v25i1.70530","article-title":"Dengue: The Enduring Endemic Challenge in Bangladesh","volume":"25","author":"G Saha","year":"2024","journal-title":"Journal of Medicine"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0305854.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0009773","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009773","article-title":"The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil","volume":"15","author":"SA Lee","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0305854.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"523","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-016-1778-9","article-title":"Oviposition ecology and species composition of Aedes spp. and Aedes aegypti dynamics in variously urbanized settings in arbovirus foci in southeastern Cote d\u2019Ivoire","volume":"9","author":"JB Zahouli","year":"2016","journal-title":"Parasites & Vectors"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0305854.ref026","first-page":"158","article-title":"Effects of the environmental temperature on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes: A review","volume":"9","author":"JM Reinhold","year":"2018","journal-title":"Insects (Basel, Switzerland)"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref027","first-page":"41","article-title":"Climatic factors affecting dengue haemorrhagic fever incidence in southern Thailand","volume":"29","author":"S Promprou","year":"2005","journal-title":"Dengue Bulletin"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0305854.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1066","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.13-0321","article-title":"The complex relationship between weather and dengue virus transmission in Thailand","volume":"89","author":"KM Campbell","year":"2013","journal-title":"American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0305854.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0003901","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003901","article-title":"Interaction of mean temperature and daily fluctuation influences dengue incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh","volume":"9","author":"S Sharmin","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"811","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2009.0098","article-title":"Effects of temperature and rainfall on the activity and dynamics of host-seeking Aedes albopictus females in northern Italy","volume":"10","author":"D Roiz","year":"2010","journal-title":"Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-011-0402-0","article-title":"The effects of simulated rainfall on immature population dynamics of Aedes albopictus and female oviposition","volume":"56","author":"H Dieng","year":"2011","journal-title":"International Journal of Biometeorology"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0305854.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"847","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjaa222","article-title":"Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) monitoring in the Lazio region (central Italy)","volume":"58","author":"F Romiti","year":"2021","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Entomology"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0305854.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001082","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001082","article-title":"Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: Cohort study and spatial analysis","volume":"8","author":"W-P Schmidt","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLOS Medicine"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0305854.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"146","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bjid.2014.10.004","article-title":"S\u00e3o Paulo urban heat islands have a higher incidence of dengue than other urban areas","volume":"9","author":"RV Araujoa","year":"2015","journal-title":"Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"T2","key":"pone.0305854.ref035","first-page":"63","article-title":"Correlation study between elevation, population density, and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Kendari City in 2014\u20132018","volume":"8","author":"SNA Istiqamah","year":"2020","journal-title":"Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences"},{"key":"pone.0305854.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108707","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compbiomed.2024.108707","article-title":"Mathematical analysis and prediction of future outbreak of dengue on time-varying contact rate using machine learning approach","volume":"178","author":"MS Islam","year":"2024","journal-title":"Computers in biology and medicine"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0342211","type":"correction","label":"Correction","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,4]],"date-time":"2026-02-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770163200000}}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0305854","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,11]],"date-time":"2024-09-11T17:25:26Z","timestamp":1726075526000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0305854"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"James","family":"Colborn","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,11]]},"references-count":36,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,11]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0305854","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,11]]}}}