{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,3]],"date-time":"2025-01-03T05:37:56Z","timestamp":1735882676212,"version":"3.32.0"},"reference-count":14,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,2]],"date-time":"2025-01-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735776000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["221003\/Z\/20\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["221003\/Z\/20\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100016962","name":"South African Department of Science and Innovation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100016962","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100016962","name":"South African Department of Science and Innovation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100016962","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001321","name":"National Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001321","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Monitoring trends in multiple infections with SARS-CoV-2, following several pandemic waves, provides insight into the biological characteristics of new variants, but also necessitates methods to understand the risk of multiple reinfections.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>We generalised a catalytic model designed to detect increases in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, to assess the population-level risk of multiple reinfections.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The catalytic model assumes the risk of reinfection is proportional to observed infections and uses a Bayesian approach to fit model parameters to the number of <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic><jats:sup><jats:italic>th<\/jats:italic><\/jats:sup> infections among individuals that occur at least 90 days after a previous infection. Using a posterior draw from the fitted model parameters, a 95% projection interval of daily <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic><jats:sup><jats:italic>th<\/jats:italic><\/jats:sup> infections is calculated under the assumption of a constant <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic><jats:sup><jats:italic>th<\/jats:italic><\/jats:sup> infection hazard coefficient. An additional model parameter was incorporated for the increased reinfection risk detected during the Omicron wave. The generalised model\u2019s performance was then assessed using simulation-based validation.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Key findings<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>No additional increase in the risk of third infection was detected after the increase detected during the Omicron wave. Using simulation-based validation, we show that the model can successfully detect increases in the risk of third infections under different scenarios.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec005\">\n<jats:title>Limitations<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Even though the generalised model is intended to detect the risk of <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic><jats:sup><jats:italic>th<\/jats:italic><\/jats:sup> infections, it is validated specifically for third infections, with its applicability for four or more infections being unconfirmed. Furthermore, the method\u2019s sensitivity to low counts of <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic><jats:sup><jats:italic>th<\/jats:italic><\/jats:sup> infections, limits application in settings with small epidemics, limited testing coverage or early in an outbreak.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec006\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The catalytic model was successfully adapted to detect increases in the risk of <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic><jats:sup><jats:italic>th<\/jats:italic><\/jats:sup> infections, enhancing our capacity to identify future changes in the risk of <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic><jats:sup><jats:italic>th<\/jats:italic><\/jats:sup> infections by SARS-CoV-2 or other similar pathogens.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0315476","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,2]],"date-time":"2025-01-02T19:28:10Z","timestamp":1735846090000},"page":"e0315476","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A generalised catalytic model to assess changes in risk for multiple reinfections with SARS-CoV-2"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6116-0479","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Belinda","family":"Lombard","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Cheryl","family":"Cohen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0243-7455","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Anne","family":"von Gottberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0506-4794","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jonathan","family":"Dushoff","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3314-8223","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Juliet R. C.","family":"Pulliam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Cari","family":"van Schalkwyk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0315476.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijsu.2020.02.034","article-title":"World Health Organization declares global emergency: A review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19).","volume":"76","author":"C Sohrabi","year":"2020","journal-title":"International Journal of Surgery"},{"key":"pone.0315476.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prrv.2020.06.014","article-title":"Modelling insights into the COVID-19 pandemic.","volume":"35","author":"MT Meehan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Paediatric Respiratory Reviews"},{"key":"pone.0315476.ref003","first-page":"2021","article-title":"Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Transmission in Kenya: A Model with Reinfection Transmission Mechanism.","author":"IM Wangari","year":"2021","journal-title":"Comput Math Methods Med."},{"key":"pone.0315476.ref004","article-title":"Estimating protection afforded by prior infection in preventing reinfection: Applying the test-negative study design","author":"HH Ayoub","year":"2023","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"6593","key":"pone.0315476.ref005","article-title":"Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa","volume":"376","author":"JRC Pulliam","year":"2022","journal-title":"Science (1979)."},{"key":"pone.0315476.ref006","unstructured":"National Institute for Communicable Diseases, SACEMA. 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