{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,28]],"date-time":"2026-07-28T07:11:49Z","timestamp":1785222709690,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,21]],"date-time":"2025-07-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1753056000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a costly disease in Britain and Ireland shared by cattle and badgers (\n                    <jats:italic>Meles meles<\/jats:italic>\n                    ), and to reduce the infection in cattle to low levels some form of badger management is considered necessary. We compare the results of a badger field trial where test-positive badgers are culled, and test-negative badgers vaccinated (a TVR approach) with the results of the simulation model originally used to predict the effect of the trial in Northern Ireland. Initial model results depended strongly on whether social perturbation occurred in the badger population following culling, and the field study demonstrated no evidence for such behavior. Here we re-run the model with the initial conditions of the TVR study and with no social perturbation and predict a similar outcome in terms of number of badgers caught, number testing positive, and the substantial decline in prevalence. These results validate our model and demonstrate the utility of such predictive modelling for this disease system. This is particularly important as the UK government moves away from widespread badger culling in England toward more vaccination, as this combined approach of vaccination and selective culling based on test results may give a more robust method of disease management than just vaccination on its own.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0320830","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,21]],"date-time":"2025-07-21T17:22:25Z","timestamp":1753118545000},"page":"e0320830","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Bovine tuberculosis model validation against a field study of badger vaccination with selective culling"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9897-6794","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Graham C.","family":"Smith","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9938-2584","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Richard","family":"Budgey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0320830.ref001","author":"Defra"},{"issue":"49","key":"pone.0320830.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17588","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0509003102","article-title":"Simple model for tuberculosis in cattle and badgers","volume":"102","author":"DR Cox","year":"2005","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0320830.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1445","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268813000721","article-title":"Long-term temporal trends and estimated transmission rates for Mycobacterium bovis infection in an undisturbed high-density badger (Meles meles) population","volume":"141","author":"RJ Delahay","year":"2013","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"issue":"1783","key":"pone.0320830.ref004","article-title":"Estimating epidemiological parameters for bovine tuberculosis in British cattle using a Bayesian partial-likelihood approach","volume":"281","author":"A O\u2019Hare","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc R Soc B: Biol Sci"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.45833","article-title":"Combining genomics and epidemiology to analyse bi-directional transmission of Mycobacterium bovis in a multi-host system","volume":"8","author":"J Crispell","year":"2019","journal-title":"Elife"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0320830.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21980","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-78900-3","article-title":"Identifying likely transmissions in Mycobacterium bovis infected populations of cattle and badgers using the Kolmogorov Forward Equations","volume":"10","author":"G Rossi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref007","article-title":"Genomic epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis infection in sympatric badger and cattle populations in Northern Ireland","author":"A Akhmetova","year":"2021","journal-title":"bioRxiv"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0320830.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"210","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2664.14046","article-title":"Phylodynamic analysis of an emergent Mycobacterium bovis outbreak in an area with no previously known wildlife infections","volume":"59","author":"G Rossi","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Appl Ecol"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0320830.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"509","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2664.2001.00609.x","article-title":"A model of bovine tuberculosis in the badger Meles meles: an evaluation of control strategies","volume":"38","author":"GC Smith","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Appl Ecol"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2015.12.012","article-title":"Effect of culling and vaccination on bovine tuberculosis infection in a European badger (Meles meles) population by spatial simulation modelling","volume":"125","author":"M Abdou","year":"2016","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1985.0123","article-title":"Population dynamics of the badger (Meles meles) and the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis","volume":"310","author":"RM Anderson","year":"1985","journal-title":"). Phil Trans R Soc Lond B"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0320830.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0248426","article-title":"Simulating the next steps in badger control for bovine tuberculosis in England","volume":"16","author":"GC Smith","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0320830.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2005.01144.x","article-title":"Effects of culling on badger Meles meles spatial organization: implications for the control of bovine tuberculosis","volume":"43","author":"R Woodroffe","year":"2005","journal-title":"J Appl Ecol"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"843","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04454","article-title":"Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle","volume":"439","author":"CA Donnelly","year":"2006","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0320830.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"240386","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.240386","article-title":"An extensive re-evaluation of evidence and analyses of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial II: in neighbouring areas","volume":"11","author":"CL Mills","year":"2024","journal-title":"Royal Soc Open Sci"},{"issue":"1713","key":"pone.0320830.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1913","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2010.1953","article-title":"Bacillus Calmette-Gu\u00e9rin vaccination reduces the severity and progression of tuberculosis in badgers","volume":"278","author":"MA Chambers","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proc R Soc B: Biol Sci"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0320830.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0049833","article-title":"BCG vaccination reduces risk of tuberculosis infection in vaccinated badgers and unvaccinated badger cubs","volume":"7","author":"SP Carter","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105004","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2020.105004","article-title":"Is moving from targeted culling to BCG-vaccination of badgers (Meles meles) associated with an unacceptable increased incidence of cattle herd tuberculosis in the Republic of Ireland? A practical non-inferiority wildlife intervention study in the Republic of Ireland (2011-2017)","volume":"179","author":"SW Martin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref019","author":"GC Smith","year":"2013"},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0320830.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0167206","article-title":"Model of selective and non-selective management of badgers (Meles meles) to control bovine tuberculosis in badgers and cattle","volume":"11","author":"GC Smith","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/vetr.248","article-title":"Test and vaccinate or remove: methodology and preliminary results from a badger intervention research project.","author":"FD Menzies","year":"2021"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0320830.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"492","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0021-8901.2004.00898.x","article-title":"A model of bovine tuberculosis in the badger Meles meles: an evaluation of different vaccination strategies","volume":"41","author":"D Wilkinson","year":"2004","journal-title":"J Appl Ecol"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0320830.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0039250","article-title":"Comparing badger (Meles meles) management strategies for reducing tuberculosis incidence in cattle","volume":"7","author":"GC Smith","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0320830.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0246141","article-title":"A Bayesian analysis of a test and vaccinate or remove study to control bovine tuberculosis in badgers (Meles meles)","volume":"16","author":"ME Arnold","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2006.04.023","article-title":"A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models","volume":"198","author":"V Grimm","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol Model"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0320830.ref026","article-title":"The ODD protocol for describing agent-based and other simulation models: a second update to improve clarity, replication, and structural realism","volume":"23","author":"V Grimm","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Artif Societ Soc Simul"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1429","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268812003019","article-title":"Multi-state modelling reveals sex-dependent transmission, progression and severity of tuberculosis in wild badgers","volume":"141","author":"J Graham","year":"2013","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref028","first-page":"271","volume-title":"Badgers","author":"E Neal","year":"1996"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"705","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-7998.1997.tb05821.x","article-title":"The demography of a high-density badger (Meles meles) population in the west of England","volume":"242","author":"LM Rogers","year":"1997","journal-title":"J Zool"},{"issue":"1403","key":"pone.0320830.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1269","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.1998.0429","article-title":"Movement of badgers (Meles meles) in a high-density population: individual, population and disease effects","volume":"265","author":"LM Rogers","year":"1998","journal-title":"Proc Biol Sci"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105635","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2022.105635","article-title":"Simulating partial vaccine protection: BCG in badgers","volume":"204","author":"GC Smith","year":"2022","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"pone.0320830.ref032","article-title":"Effect of selective removal of badgers (Meles meles) on ranging behaviour during a \u201cTest and Vaccinate or Remove\u201d intervention in Northern Ireland","volume":"149","author":"MJH O\u2019Hagan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0320830.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2592","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-023-28620-1","article-title":"Impact of test, vaccinate or remove protocol on home ranges and nightly movements of badgers a medium density population","volume":"13","author":"SHA Redpath","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0320830.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0009090","article-title":"The duration of the effects of repeated widespread badger culling on cattle tuberculosis following the cessation of culling","volume":"5","author":"HE Jenkins","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS One"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0320830","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,21]],"date-time":"2025-07-21T17:22:30Z","timestamp":1753118550000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0320830"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Frederick","family":"Quinn","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,21]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,21]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0320830","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2025.02.27.640543","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,21]]}}}