{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,25]],"date-time":"2025-06-25T04:10:55Z","timestamp":1750824655633,"version":"3.41.0"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,24]],"date-time":"2025-06-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1750723200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Diabetes is a significant public health issue due to its high prevalence and multifaceted consequences, impacting both the Brazilian Unified Health System and society. The disease adversely affects people's quality of life and elevates healthcare costs. In 2019, approximately 16 million Brazilians were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus. Understanding the future trends of this disease is crucial for planning effective preventive interventions. This paper aims to estimate the future prevalence type 2 diabetes mellitus on individuals from the Study of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Adolescents (ERICA) sample, based on the progression of their cardiovascular risk factors.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Method<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>A literature review was conducted to identify predictive models for type 2 diabetes mellitus that utilize cardiovascular risk factors assessed during adolescence to forecast diabetes risk in adulthood. A logistic regression model, grounded in the natural history of clinical variables derived from longitudinal studies, was applied to each individual to determine their risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus. Additionally, probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed, incorporating the minimum and maximum values of model parameters.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The predictive model estimated that 15.12% of individuals in the ERICA sample are likely to develop type 2 diabetes mellitus in adulthood, with a range of 1.1% to 28% based on sensitivity analyses. The parameters exerting the most significant influence on these results included diastolic blood pressure and triglycerides, followed by LDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The application of this predictive model to the Study of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Adolescents (ERICA) sample indicates an estimated prevalence of 15.12% for T2DM over a 20.5-year follow-up period. Studies like this one provide valuable insights for designing targeted interventions to mitigate the progression of diabetes and its associated socioeconomic impacts.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0326436","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,24]],"date-time":"2025-06-24T17:46:13Z","timestamp":1750787173000},"page":"e0326436","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Estimation of the future prevalence of diabetes based on data from the Brazilian Study of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Adolescents (ERICA)"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8849-0176","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Barbara","family":"Pozzi Ottavio","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"St\u00e9fani","family":"Sousa Borges","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"M\u00e1rcia Gisele","family":"Santos da Costa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Maria Cristina","family":"Caetano Kuschnir","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0326436.ref001","author":"Expert Committee on the Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes Mellitus","year":"1997"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref002","article-title":"Classification and diagnosis of diabetes: standards of medical care in diabetes 2021","volume":"44","author":"American Diabetes Association","year":"2021","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref003","unstructured":"International Diabetes Foundation IDF. Diabetes Atlas. 2019."},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref004","author":"Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12963-020-00209-0","article-title":"The burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil: a global burden of disease study 2017","volume":"18","author":"BB Duncan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Popul Health Metr"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref006","author":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation","year":"2021"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref007","author":"Institute For Health Metrics and Evaluation","year":"2021"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref008","author":"World Health Organization"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref009"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref010","volume-title":"Plano de a\u00e7\u00f5es estrat\u00e9gicas para o enfrentamento das doen\u00e7as cr\u00f4nicas e agravos n\u00e3o transmiss\u00edveis no Brasil - 2021-2030","year":"2020"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref011","author":"Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade B","year":"2024"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-015-1442-x","article-title":"The study of cardiovascular risk in adolescents - ERICA: rationale, design and sample characteristics of a national survey examining cardiovascular risk factor profile in Brazilian adolescents","volume":"15","author":"K Vergetti Bloch","year":"2015","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref013","article-title":"The regression analysis of binary sequences","volume":"20","author":"DR Cox","year":"1958","journal-title":"J Royal Statistical Soc Series B (Methodological)"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cobas RA, Rodacki M, Giacaglia LR, Calliari LEP, Noronha de RM, Val\u00e9rio CM. Diagn\u00f3stico do diabetes e rastreamento do diabetes tipo 2. 2021.","DOI":"10.29327\/540652.1-2"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref015","author":"Sociedade Brasileira de Diabetes","year":"2019"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0326436.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1816","DOI":"10.2337\/dc19-0430","article-title":"Variabilities in childhood cardiovascular risk factors and incident diabetes in adulthood: the Bogalusa heart study","volume":"42","author":"T Du","year":"2019","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0326436.ref017","first-page":"921","article-title":"Desenho da amostra do Estudo de Riscos Cardiovasculares em Adolescentes (ERICA)","volume":"31","author":"MTL de Vasconcellos","year":"2015","journal-title":"Cad Saude Publica"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref018","author":"Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0326436.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1111\/pedi.12828","article-title":"Prevalence of type 2 diabetes among adolescents in Brazil: findings from Study of Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescents (ERICA)","volume":"20","author":"GH Telo","year":"2019","journal-title":"Pediatr Diabetes"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cct.2018.04.009","article-title":"The International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) consortium outcomes study of childhood cardiovascular risk factors and adult cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: design and recruitment","volume":"69","author":"AR Sinaiko","year":"2018","journal-title":"Contemp Clin Trials"},{"key":"pone.0326436.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1186\/s13098-019-0448-4","article-title":"Economic burden of diabetes in Brazil in 2014","volume":"11","author":"LR Bahia","year":"2019","journal-title":"Diabetol Metab Syndr"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0326436.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"258","DOI":"10.2337\/dci20-0053","article-title":"Social determinants of health and diabetes: a scientific review [Internet].","volume":"44","author":"F Hill-Briggs","year":"2020","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0326436","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,24]],"date-time":"2025-06-24T17:46:21Z","timestamp":1750787181000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0326436"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Hidetaka","family":"Hamasaki","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,24]]},"references-count":22,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,24]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0326436","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,24]]}}}