{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,16]],"date-time":"2025-09-16T17:09:59Z","timestamp":1758042599449,"version":"3.44.0"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]],"date-time":"2025-09-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757548800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/publicdomain\/zero\/1.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000180","name":"U.S. Department of Homeland Security","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["18STCBT00001-03-00"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["18STCBT00001-03-00"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000180","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), has been widely used as a benchmark to measure the state of vulnerability of counties across the United States. The SVI is integrated using a simple aggregation methodology on a set of variables reflecting the region\u2019s socioeconomic status, household characteristics, racial &amp; ethnic minority status, and housing type\/transportation. Due to its simple construction and inclusion of significant variables publicly available, the SVI has grown exponentially in popularity among organizations and government officials as a tool for decision-making, especially for resource allocation and for regional risk assessment. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic brought a set of unprecedented challenges in the bi-national health between the United States and Mexico, particularly on the state of risk of supply chains. Since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) became effective in 1994 and then renewed in 2020 as USMCA, Mexico has grown to be the biggest trading partner of the U.S., fast approaching a trade value of more than a trillion USD a year. For which conducting regional risk assessment following the SVI formulation can be a significant impact for multiple stakeholders and organizations. In this work, the formulation of the SVI is analyzed using a risk framework as a reference, to corroborate its applicability for decision-making, and to expand it to account for variables and processes impacting supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic. This analysis shows that vulnerability is only one of three factors required to conduct risk assessment (i.e., hazards vulnerability, and consequences), needed to produce a baseline of reference to make informed decisions. A case study is also developed based on the use of the SVI during the COVID-19 pandemic for supply chains between the U.S. and Mexico, by introducing the formulation of a risk index that is compatible with the proposed risk framework. The first step to expand the SVI into a risk index for supply chains between U.S. and Mexico, was to reproduce the CDC methodology, followed by using an Empirical Cumulative Density Function (ECDF) aggregation methodology to justify it statistically, and then to illustrate its benefits and limitations when extended into a new risk index (accounting for the three required risk components). As a result, a bi-national risk index map is produced after harmonizing publicly available variables in the U.S. and Mexico, illustrating the potential to quantify the state of regional risk for supply chains and other path-dependent systems, and setting a reference to further improve it.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0327526","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]],"date-time":"2025-09-11T17:32:34Z","timestamp":1757611954000},"page":"e0327526","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A pandemic risk index to improve supply chains decision-making between US and Mexico: A COVID-19 case study"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-9372-9659","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Billy","family":"Hernawan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Guillermo F.","family":"Duran-Sierra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Enrique","family":"Zarate-Losoya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1132-2035","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Zenon","family":"Medina-Cetina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Miriam","family":"Olivares","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Maria J.","family":"Perez-Patron","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Matt","family":"Cochran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gregory","family":"Pompelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0327526.ref001","article-title":"A social vulnerability index for disaster management","volume":"8","author":"BE Flanagan","year":"2011","journal-title":"J Homel Secur Emerg Manage"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0327526.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"409","DOI":"10.1111\/disa.12198","article-title":"Mapping fires and American Red Cross aid using demographic indicators of vulnerability","volume":"41","author":"E Lue","year":"2017","journal-title":"Disasters"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0327526.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"982","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12677","article-title":"Validating resilience and vulnerability indices in the context of natural disasters","volume":"37","author":"LA Bakkensen","year":"2017","journal-title":"Risk Anal"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0327526.ref004","first-page":"7","article-title":"Social vulnerability and obesity among U.S. adults","volume":"3","author":"R An","year":"2015","journal-title":"IJHS"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0327526.ref005","first-page":"1131","article-title":"How valid are social vulnerability models","volume":"109","author":"S Rufat","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ann Am Assoc Geograph"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0327526.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"242","DOI":"10.1111\/1540-6237.8402002","article-title":"Social vulnerability to environmental hazards*","volume":"84","author":"SL Cutter","year":"2003","journal-title":"Soc Sci Quarterly"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101329","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2019.101329","article-title":"Social vulnerability in the coastal region of Bangladesh: an investigation of social vulnerability index and scalar change effects","volume":"41","author":"YW Rabby","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Disast Risk Red"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"158","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsci.2018.12.011","article-title":"A social vulnerability index to changes in ecosystem services provision at local scale: a methodological approach","volume":"93","author":"L Berrouet","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environ Sci Pol"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102531","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cities.2019.102531","article-title":"Social Vulnerability Index and obesity: an empirical study in the US","volume":"97","author":"C-Y Yu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cities"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100052","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hpopen.2021.100052","article-title":"A time-varying vulnerability index for COVID-19 in New Mexico, USA using generalized propensity scores","volume":"2","author":"ME Gorris","year":"2021","journal-title":"Health Policy Open"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101679","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2020.101679","article-title":"Developing a multi-facet social vulnerability measure for flood disasters at the micro-level assessment","volume":"49","author":"AY Karunarathne","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Disast Risk Red"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0327526.ref012","first-page":"223","article-title":"Stochastic design of an early warning system","volume":"2","author":"Z Medina-Cetina","year":"2008","journal-title":"Georisk"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111574","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2021.111574","article-title":"A dynamic risk assessment model to assess the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the sustainability of the biomass supply chain: A case study of a U.S. biofuel industry","volume":"151","author":"Z Sajid","year":"2021","journal-title":"Renew Sustain Energy Rev"},{"article-title":"Disruptions in global supply chains and their effects in Mexico\u2019s regional gross output in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic","volume-title":"The Center for Latin American Monetary Studies\u2019 Macroeconomic Policy Responses to COVID-19","author":"J Alvarado","key":"pone.0327526.ref014"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0327526.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.1520\/SSMS20200067","article-title":"Grow local manufacturing along US\/Mexico Border Region for an integrated supply chain in the post\u2013COVID-19 era","volume":"4","author":"J Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Smart Sustain Manuf Syst"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0327526.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2053","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ifacol.2015.06.391","article-title":"Modeling the supply chain disruptions: a study based on the supply chain interdependencies","volume":"48","author":"MF Blos","year":"2015","journal-title":"IFAC-PapersOnLine"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103373","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2023.103373","article-title":"Exploring the risk and economic vulnerability of global energy supply chain interruption in the context of Russo-Ukrainian war","volume":"81","author":"L Cui","year":"2023","journal-title":"Resourc Pol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0327526.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"250","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2020.10.016","article-title":"Building disaster preparedness and response capacity in humanitarian supply chains using the Social Vulnerability Index","volume":"292","author":"D Alem","year":"2021","journal-title":"Eur J Oper Res"},{"journal-title":"R7 \u2013 Internal report on Bayesian risk assessment & management model development V1.0","year":"2021","author":"Z Medina-Cetina","key":"pone.0327526.ref019"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0327526.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"417","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-019-03820-z","article-title":"Evaluating social vulnerability indicators: criteria and their application to the Social Vulnerability Index","volume":"100","author":"SE Spielman","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Hazards"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0327526.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(20)30300-4","article-title":"A vulnerability index for the management of and response to the COVID-19 epidemic in India: an ecological study","volume":"8","author":"R Acharya","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref022","unstructured":"Surgo Ventures. Vulnerable communities and COVID-19: the damage done, and the way forward. 2021 Jan [cited 2023 Aug 01]. Available from: https:\/\/precisionforcovid.org\/ccvi"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0327526.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1097\/FJC.0000000000001116","article-title":"Role of hypertension on the severity of COVID-19: a review","volume":"78","author":"M Peng","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Cardiovasc Pharmacol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0327526.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"76","DOI":"10.1097\/MCP.0000000000000834","article-title":"Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and COVID-19: interrelationships","volume":"28","author":"D Singh","year":"2022","journal-title":"Curr Opin Pulm Med"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0327526.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"782","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-8587(20)30238-2","article-title":"COVID-19 in people with diabetes: understanding the reasons for worse outcomes","volume":"8","author":"M Apicella","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol"},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0327526.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1111\/obr.13128","article-title":"Individuals with obesity and COVID-19: A global perspective on the epidemiology and biological relationships","volume":"21","author":"BM Popkin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Obes Rev"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0327526.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"790","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaci.2020.08.008","article-title":"Allergic disorders and susceptibility to and severity of COVID-19: a nationwide cohort study.","volume":"146","author":"JM Yang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Allergy Clin Immunol"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref028","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Community Profile Report. c2020 \u2013 [cited 2025 May 07]. Available from: https:\/\/healthdata.gov\/dataset\/COVID-19-Community-Profile-Report-County-Level\/di4u-7yu6\/about_data"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0327526.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1295","DOI":"10.3390\/jpm12081295","article-title":"Global challenges to public health care systems during the COVID-19 pandemic: a review of pandemic measures and problems","volume":"12","author":"R Filip","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Pers Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0327526.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"76","DOI":"10.1186\/s12939-022-01629-0","article-title":"COVID-19 double jeopardy: the overwhelming impact of the social determinants of health","volume":"21","author":"E Badalov","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int J Equity Health"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0327526.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"606","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.56.8.606","article-title":"Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies","volume":"56","author":"RF Heller","year":"2002","journal-title":"J Epidemiol Community Health"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0327526.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"348","DOI":"10.1016\/j.healthpol.2006.10.001","article-title":"Population impact--definition, calculation and its use in prevention science in the example of tobacco smoking reduction","volume":"82","author":"JR Thyrian","year":"2007","journal-title":"Health Policy"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-98096-2_13","article-title":"A dynamic social vulnerability index to COVID-19 in Mexico.","author":"R Sierra-Alcocer","year":"2022","journal-title":"Advances in geospatial data science"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0327526.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"66","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi13030066","article-title":"Spatial and temporal changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards in Mexico","volume":"13","author":"JF Le\u00f3n-Cruz","year":"2024","journal-title":"IJGI"},{"key":"pone.0327526.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107511","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpe.2019.09.032","article-title":"Modeling transportation disruptions in the supply chain of automotive parts manufacturing company","volume":"222","author":"S-R Fartaj","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Prod Econ"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0327526.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-020-00649-4","article-title":"Criticality analysis of a country\u2019s transport network via an agent-based supply chain model","volume":"4","author":"C Colon","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Sustain"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0327526","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]],"date-time":"2025-09-11T17:32:41Z","timestamp":1757611961000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0327526"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Chenfeng","family":"Xiong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]]},"references-count":36,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0327526","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1932-6203"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]]}}}