{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,2]],"date-time":"2025-08-02T14:32:28Z","timestamp":1754145148396,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":70,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]],"date-time":"2025-07-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1752624000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005089","name":"Ohio Environmental Protection Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005089","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100012759","name":"Ohio Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100012759","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Identifying temporal patterns in dynamics of acute, immunizing infectious diseases informs our understanding of transmission, epidemic prediction, and disease control. However, for emerging pathogens like SARS-CoV-2, temporal dynamics remain underinformed, even though COVID-19 cases varied greatly over time. Using nested compartmental models, we quantified transmission and immune dynamics in part of Columbus, the capital city of the state of Ohio, United States (US). We parameterized models using state-reported COVID-19 case counts and wastewater-based surveillance (WWS) for SARS-CoV-2. We used the models to reconstruct transmission and the rate of waning immunity in three distinct pandemic phases from April 2020 to August 2022. On average, transmission rates were lowest for the ancestral strain and highest for the Omicron variant. Transmission did not display consistent seasonal changes but did vary through time in ways that might have been influenced by host behavior or viral strain switching. Our findings also indicate that vaccine-induced and infection-induced SARS-CoV-2 immunity wane at similar rates. Gaining a better understanding of population-level transmission and immune dynamics following the emergence of a novel pathogen can inform future public health interventions including vaccine schedules.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0327817","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]],"date-time":"2025-07-16T17:26:30Z","timestamp":1752686790000},"page":"e0327817","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Quantifying transmission and immunity dynamics of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants using models and epidemic data from a highly populated area"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-6876-7505","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Monica S.","family":"Shah","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8936-1555","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jiyoung","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Laura W.","family":"Pomeroy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0327817.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1890\/0012-9615(2002)072[0169:DOMEES]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Dynamics of measles epidemics: estimating scaling of transmission rates using a time series sir model","volume":"72","author":"ON Bj\u00f8rnstad","year":"2002","journal-title":"Ecological Monographs"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0327817.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0075806","article-title":"Impact of birth seasonality on dynamics of acute immunizing infections in Sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"8","author":"AM Dor\u00e9lien","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0327817.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"607","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268816002673","article-title":"Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico","volume":"145","author":"AS Mahmud","year":"2017","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0327817.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1007327","article-title":"The calendar of epidemics: Seasonal cycles of infectious diseases","volume":"14","author":"ME Martinez","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog"},{"issue":"1676","key":"pone.0327817.ref005","first-page":"4111","article-title":"Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen","volume":"276","author":"CJE Metcalf","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proc Biol Sci"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100700","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2023.100700","article-title":"Mumps epidemic dynamics in the United States before vaccination (1923-1932)","volume":"44","author":"LW Pomeroy","year":"2023","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"issue":"10223","key":"pone.0327817.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"470","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30185-9","article-title":"A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern","volume":"395","author":"C Wang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"year":"2024","author":"World Health Organization","key":"pone.0327817.ref008"},{"issue":"6593","key":"pone.0327817.ref009","article-title":"Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa","volume":"376","author":"JRC Pulliam","year":"2022","journal-title":"Science"},{"year":"2023","author":"World Health Organization WHO","key":"pone.0327817.ref010"},{"issue":"16","key":"pone.0327817.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1532","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2119451","article-title":"Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant","volume":"386","author":"N Andrews","year":"2022","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0327817.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2101196","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.4.2101196","article-title":"Increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 compared with Delta in vaccinated and previously infected individuals, the Netherlands, 22 November 2021 to 19 January 2022","volume":"27","author":"D Eggink","year":"2022","journal-title":"Euro Surveill"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0327817.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579-022-00708-x","article-title":"Towards SARS-CoV-2 serotypes?","volume":"20","author":"E Simon-Loriere","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol"},{"issue":"5721","key":"pone.0327817.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1038\/280361a0","article-title":"Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I","volume":"280","author":"RM Anderson","year":"1979","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/37.3-4.193","article-title":"A Simple Stochastic Epidemic","volume":"37","author":"NTJ Bailey","year":"1950","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"issue":"772","key":"pone.0327817.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"700","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118","article-title":"A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics","volume":"115","author":"WO Kermack","year":"1927","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond A"},{"issue":"434","key":"pone.0327817.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/scitranslmed.aaj1748","article-title":"The impact of past vaccination coverage and immunity on pertussis resurgence","volume":"10","author":"M Domenech de Cell\u00e8s","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci Transl Med"},{"volume-title":"The ecological detective: confronting models with data","year":"1997","author":"R Hilborn","key":"pone.0327817.ref018"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0327817.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0072086","article-title":"Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics","volume":"8","author":"JS Lavine","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0327817.ref020","article-title":"Host species heterogeneity in the epidemiology of Nesopora caninum","volume":"12","author":"KI Moreno-Torres","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0327817.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0136642","article-title":"Serotype-Specific Transmission and Waning Immunity of Endemic Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Cameroon","volume":"10","author":"LW Pomeroy","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0327817.ref022","article-title":"Global Percentage of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among the Tested Population and Individuals With Confirmed COVID-19 Diagnosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis","volume":"4","author":"Q Ma","year":"2021","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0327817.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1186\/s12961-023-00963-1","article-title":"Limitations of COVID-19 testing and case data for evidence-informed health policy and practice","volume":"21","author":"E Alvarez","year":"2023","journal-title":"Health Res Policy Syst"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-14-147","article-title":"Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods","volume":"14","author":"CL Gibbons","year":"2014","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"issue":"13","key":"pone.0327817.ref025","article-title":"Polio and Measles Down the Drain: Environmental Enterovirus Surveillance in the Netherlands, 2005 to 2015","volume":"83","author":"KSM Benschop","year":"2017","journal-title":"Appl Environ Microbiol"},{"issue":"383","key":"pone.0327817.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/scitranslmed.aaf6786","article-title":"Estimation of polio infection prevalence from environmental surveillance data","volume":"9","author":"Y Berchenko","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci Transl Med"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"461","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.mi.49.100195.002333","article-title":"Environmental virology: from detection of virus in sewage and water by isolation to identification by molecular biology--a trip of over 50 years","volume":"49","author":"TG Metcalf","year":"1995","journal-title":"Annu Rev Microbiol"},{"issue":"21","key":"pone.0327817.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6771","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.01981-14","article-title":"Detection of pathogenic viruses in sewage provided early warnings of hepatitis A virus and norovirus outbreaks","volume":"80","author":"M Hellm\u00e9r","year":"2014","journal-title":"Appl Environ Microbiol"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0327817.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1539","DOI":"10.1111\/jam.15027","article-title":"Assessment of enteric viruses during a hepatitis outbreak in Detroit MI using wastewater surveillance and metagenomic analysis","volume":"131","author":"C McCall","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Appl Microbiol"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0327817.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"687","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.estlett.2c00350","article-title":"Wastewater-Based Detection of Two Influenza Outbreaks","volume":"9","author":"MK Wolfe","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ Sci Technol Lett"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0327817.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1101\/mcs.a006031","article-title":"The gut microbiome: a missing link in understanding the gastrointestinal manifestations of COVID-19?","volume":"7","author":"EF Brooks","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cold Spring Harb Mol Case Stud"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0327817.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2020.03.065","article-title":"Gastrointestinal Manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Virus Load in Fecal Samples From a Hong Kong Cohort: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis","volume":"159","author":"KS Cheung","year":"2020","journal-title":"Gastroenterology"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0327817.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1276","DOI":"10.1111\/apt.16036","article-title":"Systematic review with meta-analysis: SARS-CoV-2 stool testing and the potential for faecal-oral transmission","volume":"52","author":"AS van Doorn","year":"2020","journal-title":"Aliment Pharmacol Ther"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"149757","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.149757","article-title":"Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 monitoring as a community-level COVID-19 trend tracker and variants in Ohio, United States","volume":"801","author":"Y Ai","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114290","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2022.114290","article-title":"Socioeconomic status correlations with confirmed COVID-19 cases and SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations in small-medium sized communities","volume":"215","author":"E Lancaster","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ Res"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0327817.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1164","DOI":"10.1038\/s41587-020-0684-z","article-title":"Measurement of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater tracks community infection dynamics","volume":"38","author":"J Peccia","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Biotechnol"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0327817.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"833","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.25825","article-title":"The presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the feces of COVID-19 patients","volume":"92","author":"Y Chen","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0327817.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"997","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2020-321013","article-title":"Gastrointestinal symptoms of 95 cases with SARS-CoV-2 infection","volume":"69","author":"L Lin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Gut"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"118070","DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2022.118070","article-title":"Metrics to relate COVID-19 wastewater data to clinical testing dynamics","volume":"212","author":"A Xiao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Water Res"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0327817.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1151","DOI":"10.1038\/s41587-020-0690-1","article-title":"Tracking COVID-19 with wastewater","volume":"38","author":"DA Larsen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Biotechnol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0327817.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.14309\/ctg.0000000000000343","article-title":"Prevalence and Persistent Shedding of Fecal SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Patients With COVID-19 Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis","volume":"12","author":"Y Zhang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Clin Transl Gastroenterol"},{"year":"2023","author":"Ohio Department of Health","key":"pone.0327817.ref042"},{"year":"2022","author":"Ohio Department of Health","key":"pone.0327817.ref043"},{"year":"2018","author":"US Census Bureau","key":"pone.0327817.ref044"},{"year":"2022","author":"Ohio Department of Health","key":"pone.0327817.ref045"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0327817.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"845","DOI":"10.1097\/PHH.0000000000001783","article-title":"Ohio Coronavirus Wastewater Monitoring Network: Implementation of Statewide Monitoring for Protecting Public Health","volume":"29","author":"Z Bohrerova","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Public Health Manag Pract"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0327817.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(21)00230-8","article-title":"COVID-19 wastewater epidemiology: a model to estimate infected populations","volume":"5","author":"CS McMahan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0327817.ref048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2020-039856","article-title":"Inferred duration of infectious period of SARS-CoV-2: rapid scoping review and analysis of available evidence for asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 cases","volume":"10","author":"AW Byrne","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"volume-title":"Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control","year":"1992","author":"RM Anderson","key":"pone.0327817.ref049"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400841035","volume-title":"Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"2008"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0327817.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1678","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciab746","article-title":"Estimating the Latent Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)","volume":"74","author":"H Xin","year":"2022","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0327817.ref052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268802007148","article-title":"A clarification of transmission terms in host-microparasite models: numbers, densities and areas","volume":"129","author":"M Begon","year":"2002","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0327817.ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"716","DOI":"10.1109\/TAC.1974.1100705","article-title":"A new look at the statistical model identification","volume":"19","author":"H Akaike","year":"1974","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Automat Contr"},{"year":"2023","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","key":"pone.0327817.ref054"},{"volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","year":"2022","author":"Team R Core","key":"pone.0327817.ref055"},{"volume-title":"RStudio: Integrated Development Environment for R","year":"2016","author":"ST R","key":"pone.0327817.ref056"},{"year":"2021","author":"The Ohio State University","key":"pone.0327817.ref057"},{"year":"n.d","author":"The Ohio State University","key":"pone.0327817.ref058"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref059","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"159165","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2022.159165","article-title":"Variant-specific SARS-CoV-2 shedding rates in wastewater","volume":"857","author":"SM Prasek","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0327817.ref060","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"467","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2005.00879.x","article-title":"Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases","volume":"9","author":"S Altizer","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol Lett"},{"year":"2022","author":"United States Census Bureau","key":"pone.0327817.ref061"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0327817.ref062","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004337","article-title":"Impact of School Cycles and Environmental Forcing on the Timing of Pandemic Influenza Activity in Mexican States, May-December 2009","volume":"11","author":"J Tamerius","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0327817.ref063","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100583","DOI":"10.1016\/j.xcrm.2022.100583","article-title":"Comparative transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Alpha in New England, USA","volume":"3","author":"R Earnest","year":"2022","journal-title":"Cell Rep Med"},{"issue":"10379","key":"pone.0327817.ref064","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"833","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(22)02465-5","article-title":"Past SARS-CoV-2 infection protection against re-infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"401","author":"COVID-19 Forecasting Team","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100734","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2021.100734","article-title":"Antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 decline, but do not disappear for several months","volume":"32","author":"S Yamayoshi","year":"2021","journal-title":"EClinicalMedicine"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0327817.ref066","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiaa618","article-title":"Dynamics of Neutralizing Antibody Titers in the Months After Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection","volume":"223","author":"KHD Crawford","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"key":"pone.0327817.ref067","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annepidem.2021.03.001","article-title":"Regional and socioeconomic predictors of perceived ability to access coronavirus testing in the United States: results from a nationwide online COVID-19 survey","volume":"58","author":"SH Ali","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ann Epidemiol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0327817.ref068","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1089\/pop.2020.0163","article-title":"Disparities in SARS-CoV-2 Positivity Rates: Associations with Race and Ethnicity","volume":"24","author":"HW Kaufman","year":"2021","journal-title":"Popul Health Manag"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0327817.ref069","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2002083","DOI":"10.1080\/21645515.2021.2002083","article-title":"A comprehensive review of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna & Johnson & Johnson","volume":"18","author":"R Patel","year":"2022","journal-title":"Hum Vaccin Immunother"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0327817.ref070","article-title":"Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibody responses and duration of immunity: a longitudinal study","volume":"2","author":"WN Chia","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Microbe"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0327817","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]],"date-time":"2025-07-16T17:26:42Z","timestamp":1752686802000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0327817"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Mohammad","family":"Barary","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]},"references-count":70,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0327817","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1932-6203"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]}}}