{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,11]],"date-time":"2026-07-11T02:15:38Z","timestamp":1783736138147,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,12]],"date-time":"2026-02-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770854400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study aimed to predict the short-term trends of confirmed COVID-19 cases and the MASI stock index in Morocco using the ARIMA method. COVID-19 case data were obtained from Our World in Data, while MASI stock market data were obtained from Investing.com. The dataset covered the period from March 2, 2020 to April 28, 2022. To develop the predictive model, data from March 2, 2020 to April 28, 2022, were used for training. Data from April 22, 2022 to April 28, 2022, were used for model fitting for COVID-19 cases, and from April 25, 2022 to April 29, 2022, for the MASI index. Based on these models, we conducted short-term forecasts for April 29, 2022 to May 1, 2022, for COVID-19 cases, and May 4, 2022 to May 6, 2022, for the MASI index. The forecasting accuracy was mainly evaluated using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Furthermore, we applied the Granger causality test to investigate the potential directional relationship between COVID-19 case trends and MASI index fluctuations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to perform short-term forecasting of both COVID-19 cases and the MASI stock index in Morocco while also assessing their dynamic interplay, providing a novel contribution to the intersection of epidemiological and financial modeling in the region.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0328202","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,12]],"date-time":"2026-02-12T18:39:21Z","timestamp":1770921561000},"page":"e0328202","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Short-term forecasting and impact analysis of COVID-19 and the stock market in Morocco using ARIMA"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"N\u2019Adoi","family":"Aboagye","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7763-5862","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Saralees","family":"Nadarajah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0328202.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102434","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaut.2020.102434","article-title":"The deadly coronaviruses: the 2003 SARS pandemic and the 2020 novel coronavirus epidemic in China","volume":"109","author":"Y Yang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Autoimmun."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109761","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2020.109761","article-title":"Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France","volume":"134","author":"D Fanelli","year":"2020","journal-title":"Chaos Solitons Fractals."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref003","article-title":"Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th","author":"K Roosa","year":"2020","journal-title":"Infectious Disease Modelling."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105340","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dib.2020.105340","article-title":"Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset","volume":"29","author":"D Benvenuto","year":"2020","journal-title":"Data Brief."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100023","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloepi.2020.100023","article-title":"1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: the date predicted by a simple heuristic","volume":"2","author":"WW Koczkodaj","year":"2020","journal-title":"Glob Epidemiol."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref006","unstructured":"Worldometer. Morocco COVID - coronavirus statistics. 2025. [cite 2025 Apr 29]. https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/country\/morocco\/"},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.22610\/jebs.v11i1(J).2758","article-title":"Analysis of herding behavior in Moroccan stock market","volume":"11","author":"ME Hami","year":"2019","journal-title":"JEBS."},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0328202.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.55897\/ijpo.2022.02.15","article-title":"The weak form efficiency of the stock market: the case of Moroccan market","volume":"1","author":"F Essaf","year":"2022","journal-title":"IJPO."},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0328202.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"99","DOI":"10.3390\/healthcare8020099","article-title":"Epidemiology of coronavirus COVID-19: forecasting the future incidence in different countries","volume":"8","author":"J St\u00fcbinger","year":"2020","journal-title":"Healthcare (Basel)."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref010","article-title":"Proposed robust estimators for the Poisson panel regression model: Application to COVID-19 deaths in Europe","author":"EG Ahmed","year":"2024","journal-title":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fams.2025.1638596","article-title":"New robust estimators for the fixed effects negative binomial model: a simulation and real-world applications to European panel data","volume":"11","author":"MR Abonazel","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Appl Math Stat."},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0328202.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1190","DOI":"10.1080\/00949655.2024.2449102","article-title":"On robust M, S and MM estimations for the Poisson fixed effects panel model with outliers: simulation and applications","volume":"95","author":"MR Abonazel","year":"2025","journal-title":"Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation."},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0328202.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"808","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/20.3.808","article-title":"The use of transfer function models, intervention analysis and related time series methods in epidemiology","volume":"20","author":"U Helfenstein","year":"1991","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol."},{"issue":"20","key":"pone.0328202.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3051","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.963","article-title":"Dynamic linear model and SARIMA: a comparison of their forecasting performance in epidemiology","volume":"20","author":"FF Nobre","year":"2001","journal-title":"Stat Med."},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0328202.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2008.79.933","article-title":"Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil","volume":"79","author":"PM Luz","year":"2008","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268820001983","article-title":"The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa","volume":"148","author":"E Gayawan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"983","DOI":"10.9734\/jpri\/2021\/v33i60B34703","article-title":"Time series models for COVID-19 new cases in top seven infected African Countries","author":"AS Argawu","year":"2021","journal-title":"JPRI."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Oukhouya MH, Angour N, Aboutabit N. Study of COVID-19 impact on Moroccan financial market based on ARDL. In: Proceedings of the International Conference of Machine Learning and Computer Science Applications. 2022. p. 328\u201339.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-031-29313-9_29"},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ktari R, Ghozzi Y, Khemakhem F, Hmani I. Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 positive cases using machine learning models in maghrebian countries. In: 2023 IEEE Afro-Mediterranean Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AMCAI). 2023. p. 1\u20139. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1109\/amcai59331.2023.10431510","DOI":"10.1109\/AMCAI59331.2023.10431510"},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"843","DOI":"10.46481\/jnsps.2022.843","article-title":"Forecasting of the epidemiological situation: case of COVID-19 in Morocco","author":"EM Chouit","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Nig Soc Phys Sci."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref021","unstructured":"Box GEP, Jenkins GM. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day; 1976."},{"issue":"1631","key":"pone.0328202.ref022","first-page":"123","article-title":"Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland","volume":"275","author":"M Pascual","year":"2008","journal-title":"Proc Biol Sci."},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0328202.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"486","DOI":"10.5812\/ijem.3505","article-title":"Normality tests for statistical analysis: a guide for non-statisticians","volume":"10","author":"A Ghasemi","year":"2012","journal-title":"Int J Endocrinol Metab."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0328202.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.20448\/ajeer.v11i1.5487","article-title":"Examining the dynamics of risk, performance, and volatility during COVID-19: evidence from Moroccan stock market","volume":"11","author":"M Amzil","year":"2024","journal-title":"AJEER."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Genov E, Petridis S, Iliadis P, Nikopoulos N, Coosemans T, Messagie M. Short-term load forecasting in a microgrid environment: investigating the series-specific and cross-learning forecasting methods. 2021;2042.","DOI":"10.1088\/1742-6596\/2042\/1\/012035"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0328202.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1770","DOI":"10.11591\/ijece.v14i2.pp1770-1778","article-title":"Comparison of time series temperature prediction with auto-regressive integrated moving average and recurrent neural network","volume":"14","author":"H Jdi","year":"2024","journal-title":"IJECE."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref027","article-title":"Time series analysis and forecasting of COVID-19 cases using LSTM and ARIMA models","author":"A Barman","year":"2020","journal-title":"arXiv preprint"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0328202.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1109\/MSP.2018.2867638","article-title":"Model selection techniques: an overview","volume":"35","author":"J Ding","year":"2018","journal-title":"IEEE Signal Process Mag."},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0328202.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"133","DOI":"10.1007\/s42979-022-01019-x","article-title":"Forecasting covid-19 transmission with ARIMA and LSTM techniques in Morocco","volume":"3","author":"MA Rguibi","year":"2022","journal-title":"SN Comput Sci."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rguibi MA, Madani A, Moussa N. Predicting the growth of COVID-19 in Morocco by adopting an ARIMA model. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Advanced Intelligent Systems for Sustainable Development; 2020. p. 924-9.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-90633-7_79"},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hankar M, Birjali M, Beni-Hssane A. Forecasting COVID-19 cases in Morocco: a deep learning approach. In: Proceedings of the NISS 2021 Conference on Networking, Intelligent Systems and Security, 2022. p. 845\u201357.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-981-16-3637-0_59"},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref032","article-title":"COVID-19 forecasting in Morocco using FBProphet facebook\u2019s framework in Python","volume":"9","author":"T Chafiq","year":"2020","journal-title":"International Journal of Advanced Trends in Computer Science and Engineering."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref033","article-title":"Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 new cases in top 10 infected African countries","volume":"18","author":"AS Argawu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Scientific African."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neucom.2021.10.035","article-title":"Time series predicting of COVID-19 based on deep learning","volume":"468","author":"MO Alassafi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Neurocomputing (Amst)."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref035","unstructured":"Gao HX. SAS System: SAS\/ETS Software Manual. Beijing: China Statistics Press; 2000."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0328202.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"69","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-2070(92)90008-W","article-title":"Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons","volume":"8","author":"JS Armstrong","year":"1992","journal-title":"International Journal of Forecasting."},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0328202.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"596","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm9020596","article-title":"Short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in Guangdong, Zhejiang and China: February 13-23 2020","volume":"9","author":"K Roosa","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Clin Med."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref038","article-title":"ARIMA modelling of predicting COVID-19 infections","author":"WR Anne","year":"2020","journal-title":"medRxiv."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Atkeson A. What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough estimates of disease scenarios. 2686 7. National Bureau of Economic Research. 2020.","DOI":"10.3386\/w26867"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0328202.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1226","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268818001176","article-title":"Imported cases and minimum temperature drive dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China: evidence from ARIMAX model","volume":"146","author":"QL Jing","year":"2018","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0328202.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/rmv.1899","article-title":"Dengue fever virus in Pakistan: effects of seasonal pattern and temperature change on distribution of vector and virus","volume":"27","author":"N Bostan","year":"2017","journal-title":"Rev Med Virol."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref042","article-title":"Temperature and COVID-19: India","volume":"26","author":"MP Roy","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine."},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0328202.ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1579","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-021-02117-w","article-title":"A scoping review on climate change and tuberculosis","volume":"65","author":"B Maharjan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Biometeorol."},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0328202.ref044","article-title":"Improved autoregressive integrated moving average model for COVID-19 prediction by using statistical significance and clustering techniques","volume":"9","author":"SY Ilu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Heliyon."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ayman M, Abdelali E, Mohamed E, Hasbaoui A. Predicting the Moroccan stock market using LSTM networks: an evaluation of MASI as indicator. In: Proceedings of the 2024 International Conference on Ubiquitous Networking (UNet); 2024.","DOI":"10.1109\/UNet62310.2024.10794721"},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.31449\/inf.v49i14.5751","article-title":"Comparative analysis of ARDL, LSTM, and XGBOOST models for forecasting the Moroccan stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"49","author":"MH Oukhouya","year":"2025","journal-title":"Informatica."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sciaf.2025.e02671","article-title":"A comparative study of hybrid and individual models for predicting the Moroccan MASI index: Integrating machine learning and deep learning approaches","volume":"28","author":"H Kadiri","year":"2025","journal-title":"Scientific African."},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0328202.ref048","article-title":"A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory","volume":"12","author":"W Bao","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2018.11.061","article-title":"Financial time series forecasting model based on CEEMDAN and LSTM","volume":"519","author":"J Cao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.21506\/j.ponte.2023.5.2","article-title":"The relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and the stock market indexes of sports clubs: A time series analysis","volume":"79","author":"K Yoka","year":"2023","journal-title":"PONTE."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101702","DOI":"10.1016\/j.irfa.2021.101702","article-title":"Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from the US, Japan, and Germany","volume":"74","author":"W Zhang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int Rev Financ Anal."},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref052","volume-title":"Derivatives and risk management","author":"R Madhumathi","year":"2011"},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Albulescu CT. Coronavirus and oil price crash. 2020.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3553452"},{"key":"pone.0328202.ref054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138883","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138883","article-title":"SutteARIMA: short-term forecasting method, a case: Covid-19 and stock market in Spain","volume":"729","author":"AS Ahmar","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ."}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0328202","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,12]],"date-time":"2026-02-12T18:39:32Z","timestamp":1770921572000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0328202"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Mohamed R.","family":"Abonazel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,12]]},"references-count":54,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,12]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0328202","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,12]]}}}