{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T12:56:21Z","timestamp":1787316981934,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]],"date-time":"2026-01-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769472000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000268","name":"Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BB\/M01116X\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BB\/M01116X\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000268","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Deprivation and age can both drive disparities in infectious disease transmission and outcomes; however, few models capture their combined effects. We developed a deterministic ordinary differential equation model stratified by age and deprivation decile coupled with time-dependent testing proportion to examine how mixing patterns shape inequalities in disease burden, using COVID-19 in England as a case study. The framework allows three mixing scenarios\u2013diagonal, preferred, and proportionate, and we simulated the epidemic with movement restrictions to reflect lockdown measures. We assessed the effectiveness of these restrictions in reducing transmission and explored their implications for different social groups. Results show that under diagonal mixing, disease outcomes are significantly higher than under the other mixing scenarios, with the most deprived deciles experiencing disproportionately greater burdens. Lockdown measures substantially reduced overall disease outcomes across all deciles, but relative inequalities persisted, indicating that generalised restrictions alone were insufficient to eliminate these inequalities. Our age\u2013deprivation structured model provides a foundation for designing targeted interventions, such as deprivation-focused testing, vaccination campaigns, or localised movement restrictions, to mitigate unequal health outcomes during epidemics.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0330273","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]],"date-time":"2026-01-27T18:47:47Z","timestamp":1769539667000},"page":"e0330273","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Differential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on sociodemographic groups: A mathematical model framework"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5071-8366","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Gbeminiyi J.","family":"Oyedele","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ivo","family":"Vlaev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael J.","family":"Tildesley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0330273.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1321","DOI":"10.1007\/s00148-021-00848-z","article-title":"Stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and trust","volume":"34","author":"A Brodeur","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Popul Econ."},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0330273.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30982-8","article-title":"Importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in lowering the viral inoculum to reduce susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 and potentially disease severity","volume":"21","author":"MA Spinelli","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis."},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0330273.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1514","DOI":"10.1177\/02692163211022959","article-title":"The association between ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation and receipt of hospital-based palliative care for people with Covid-19: a dual centre service evaluation","volume":"35","author":"S Bajwah","year":"2021","journal-title":"Palliat Med."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101029","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2021.101029","article-title":"Race, ethnicity, community-level socioeconomic factors, and risk of COVID-19 in the United States and the United Kingdom","volume":"38","author":"C-H Lo","year":"2021","journal-title":"EClinicalMedicine."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100835","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2021.100835","article-title":"Longitudinal assessment of symptoms and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare workers across 5 hospitals to understand ethnic differences in infection risk","volume":"34","author":"AM Valdes","year":"2021","journal-title":"EClinicalMedicine."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0330273.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjresp-2021-000951","article-title":"COVID-19 admission risk tools should include multiethnic age structures, multimorbidity and deprivation metrics for air pollution, household overcrowding, housing quality and adult skills","volume":"8","author":"MA Soltan","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ Open Respir Res."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref007","unstructured":"English indices of deprivation 2019 . Ministry of Housing CaLG. 2019. https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/statistics\/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0330273.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"777","DOI":"10.1302\/2633-1462.310.BJO-2022-0037.R1","article-title":"The impact of deprivation on patients awaiting planned care","volume":"3","author":"K Kulkarni","year":"2022","journal-title":"Bone Jt Open."},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0330273.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"624","DOI":"10.1136\/jech-2020-215039","article-title":"Is area deprivation associated with greater impacts of COVID-19 in care homes across England? A preliminary analysis of COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths","volume":"75","author":"AM Bach-Mortensen","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Epidemiol Community Health."},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0330273.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1207","DOI":"10.1017\/S095026881800119X","article-title":"Best practice assessment of disease modelling for infectious disease outbreaks","volume":"146","author":"ZF Dembek","year":"2018","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect."},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0330273.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1177","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMc2001737","article-title":"SARS-CoV-2 viral load in upper respiratory specimens of infected patients","volume":"382","author":"L Zou","year":"2020","journal-title":"N Engl J Med."},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0330273.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1205","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-020-0962-9","article-title":"Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics","volume":"26","author":"NG Davies","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Med."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100526","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2021.100526","article-title":"Precautionary breaks: planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease","volume":"37","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"2021","journal-title":"Epidemics."},{"issue":"6498","key":"pone.0330273.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1481","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb8001","article-title":"Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China","volume":"368","author":"J Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science."},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0330273.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"712","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jemermed.2020.04.006","article-title":"Epidemiological characteristics of 2143 pediatric patients with 2019 coronavirus disease in China","volume":"58","author":"C Eastin","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Journal of Emergency Medicine."},{"issue":"41","key":"pone.0330273.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.adk4606","article-title":"Generalized contact matrices allow integrating socioeconomic variables into epidemic models","volume":"10","author":"A Manna","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci Adv."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0330273.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4137","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-024-48332-y","article-title":"Importance of social inequalities to contact patterns, vaccine uptake, and epidemic dynamics","volume":"15","author":"A Manna","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat Commun."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref018","unstructured":"Hale AC, Read JM, Jewell CP. Modelling the impact of social mixing and behaviour on infectious disease transmission: application to SARS-CoV-2. 2022. https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2211.02371"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0330273.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"162","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-024-03387-y","article-title":"COVID-19 inequalities in England: a mathematical modelling study of transmission risk and clinical vulnerability by socioeconomic status","volume":"22","author":"L Goodfellow","year":"2024","journal-title":"BMC Med."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref020","article-title":"Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics","volume":"10","author":"KC Ma","year":"2021","journal-title":"Elife."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0330273.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2429","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-22601-6","article-title":"Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile","volume":"12","author":"N Gozzi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Commun."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"947","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-015-2284-2","article-title":"Is population structure sufficient to generate area-level inequalities in influenza rates? An examination using agent-based models","volume":"15","author":"S Kumar","year":"2015","journal-title":"BMC Public Health."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.03.004","article-title":"Social deprivation and burden of influenza: testing hypotheses and gaining insights from a simulation model for the spread of influenza","volume":"11","author":"A Hyder","year":"2015","journal-title":"Epidemics."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref024","unstructured":"ONS. Census 2021 geographies. https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/methodology\/geography\/ukgeographies\/censusgeographies\/census2021geographies#: :text=Lower"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0330273.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050074","article-title":"Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases","volume":"5","author":"J Mossong","year":"2008","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref026","first-page":"1025","article-title":"Mathematical modelling of the spread of COVID-19 on a university campus","volume":"6","author":"K Muller","year":"2021","journal-title":"Infect Dis Model."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105378","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rinp.2022.105378","article-title":"Modeling of COVID-19 spread with self-isolation at home and hospitalized classes","volume":"36","author":"N Anggriani","year":"2022","journal-title":"Results Phys."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref028","unstructured":"Office for National Statistics. Monthly populations by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) decile, England: January 2019 to August 2022. 2022. https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/populationandmigration\/populationprojections\/adhocs\/15363monthlypopulationsbyindexofmultipled\/eprivationimddecileenglandjanuary2019toaugust2022"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0330273.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1561","DOI":"10.1007\/s11071-020-05862-6","article-title":"Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak: comparing the dynamics in the 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world","volume":"101","author":"K Wu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nonlinear Dyn."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref030","unstructured":"UK Government. Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK. 2023. https:\/\/coronavirus.data.gov.uk\/details\/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0330273.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1009965","article-title":"Inferring age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon SARS-CoV-2 infection based on Belgian social contact data","volume":"18","author":"N Franco","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0330273.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15194","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-94609-3","article-title":"A modified age-structured SIR model for COVID-19 type viruses","volume":"11","author":"V Ram","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Rep."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref033","first-page":"238","article-title":"Modeling heterogeneous mixing in infectious disease dynamics.","volume":"215","author":"HW Hethcote","year":"1996","journal-title":"Models for infectious human diseases: their structure and relation to data."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref034","article-title":"Association between area-level material deprivation and incidence of hospitalization among children with SARS-CoV-2 in Montreal","volume":"27","author":"A Abda","year":"2022","journal-title":"Paediatr Child Health."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0330273.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1098","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-15917-z","article-title":"Impact of social and demographic factors on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the town of Nice","volume":"23","author":"E Marin\u00e9 Barjoan","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Public Health."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0330273.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1186\/s12942-023-00332-9","article-title":"Association of socio-economic deprivation with COVID-19 incidence and fatality during the first wave of the pandemic in Italy: lessons learned from a local register-based study","volume":"22","author":"F Fortunato","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Health Geogr."},{"key":"pone.0330273.ref037","first-page":"313","article-title":"A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic","volume":"6","author":"MI Betti","year":"2021","journal-title":"Infect Dis Model."},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0330273.ref038","first-page":"1","article-title":"Sequential bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models of cumulative incidence","volume":"1","author":"SA Whitaker","year":"2025","journal-title":"Bayesian Anal."}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0330273","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]],"date-time":"2026-01-27T18:47:53Z","timestamp":1769539673000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0330273"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Youssef","family":"El Khatib","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]]},"references-count":38,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0330273","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]]}}}