{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,25]],"date-time":"2025-09-25T00:20:44Z","timestamp":1758759644412,"version":"3.44.0"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,24]],"date-time":"2025-09-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1758672000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Guangxi Clinical Research Center for Urology and Nephrology","award":["grant No. Guike20297081"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["grant No. Guike20297081"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>To evaluate the temporal trends and projected burden of gout in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries from 1990 to 2021, based on Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, and to explore the contributions of key risk factors.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), years lived with disability rates (ASYR), and case counts were extracted from the GBD Results Tool. Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Joinpoint regression evaluated time-varying changes in ASYR attributable to high BMI (Body Mass Index) and kidney dysfunction. ARIMA models forecasted ASPR and ASYR through 2036.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>From 1990 to 2021, ASPR and ASYR increased globally and in all BRICS nations. In 2021, China recorded the highest ASPR and ASYR in males (1232.34 and 38.83 per 100,000, respectively), with EAPC of 1.14 and 1.13. Brazil had the lowest burden. In 2021, China and India reported the highest absolute burdens of gout, with approximately 16.79 million prevalent cases and 525,967 YLDs in China, and 5.32 million prevalent cases and 164,153 YLDs in India. High BMI and kidney dysfunction were key contributors to ASYR, especially in older adults. Forecasts indicate ASPR and ASYR will decline globally by 2036, but rise in Brazil, India, Russia, and South Africa. Chinese males show projected declines, while female rates increase modestly.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The burden of gout is rising across BRICS countries, shaped by aging populations, metabolic risk exposures, and distinct sex-specific trends. These findings highlight the importance of developing locally adapted prevention and control strategies to address this growing challenge.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0332265","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,24]],"date-time":"2025-09-24T17:43:48Z","timestamp":1758735828000},"page":"e0332265","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Burden, risk factors, and forecasts of gout in BRICS countries, 1990\u20132021: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"given":"Qizhou","family":"Mo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Shufeng","family":"Luo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fengyi","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Haiqi","family":"Liang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jiayin","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Naikai","family":"Liao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Min","family":"Qin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0900-760X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jiwen","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0332265.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1843","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(21)00569-9","article-title":"Gout","volume":"397","author":"N Dalbeth","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1863","DOI":"10.1142\/S0192415X24500733","article-title":"Natural bioactive compounds: emerging therapies for hyperuricemia","volume":"52","author":"Y Liu","year":"2024","journal-title":"The American Journal of Chinese Medicine"},{"issue":"24","key":"pone.0332265.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7616","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm13247616","article-title":"Gout and Hyperuricemia: A Narrative Review of Their Comorbidities and Clinical Implications","volume":"13","author":"J Timsans","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Clin Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0332265.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"218","DOI":"10.1016\/j.kint.2020.08.024","article-title":"A cross-sectional study of 502 patients found a diffuse hyperechoic kidney medulla pattern in patients with severe gout","volume":"99","author":"T Bardin","year":"2021","journal-title":"Kidney Int"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0332265.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1016\/j.semarthrit.2015.02.004","article-title":"The economic burden of gout: A systematic review","volume":"45","author":"SK Rai","year":"2015","journal-title":"Semin Arthritis Rheum"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0332265.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1111\/eci.13937","article-title":"Global burden of gout in 1990-2019: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019","volume":"53","author":"YJ Jeong","year":"2023","journal-title":"Eur J Clin Invest"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0332265.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"36","DOI":"10.1186\/s41256-023-00318-x","article-title":"The priority areas and possible pathways for health cooperation in BRICS countries","volume":"8","author":"Z Liu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Glob Health Res Policy"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1186\/s12992-023-00947-4","article-title":"Future health expenditure in the BRICS countries: a forecasting analysis for 2035","volume":"19","author":"PM Sahoo","year":"2023","journal-title":"Globalization and Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0332265.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3298","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-024-20799-w","article-title":"Global, regional, and national burden of gout in elderly 1990-2021: an analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021","volume":"24","author":"Y Li","year":"2024","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0332265.ref010","article-title":"Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"6","author":"Collaborators GBD 2021 Gout","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet Rheumatol"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2133","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00757-8","article-title":"Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"403","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0332265.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2799","DOI":"10.1007\/s10067-024-07083-3","article-title":"Trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality of rheumatoid arthritis in China: a systematic analysis based on GBD 2021 data","volume":"43","author":"H Gu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Clin Rheumatol"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2162","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00933-4","article-title":"Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"403","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0332265.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/rmdopen-2023-003025","article-title":"Global, regional and national burdens of gout in the young population from 1990 to 2019: a population-based study","volume":"9","author":"J Zhang","year":"2023","journal-title":"RMD Open"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0332265.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"764","DOI":"10.21037\/tau-2025-12","article-title":"Tracking and analysis of benign prostatic hyperplasia and prostate cancer burden globally: 1990-2021 epidemiological trends","volume":"14","author":"Q Mo","year":"2025","journal-title":"Transl Androl Urol"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0332265.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3629","DOI":"10.1007\/s00345-023-04658-8","article-title":"Benign prostatic hyperplasia burden comparison between China and United States based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019","volume":"41","author":"D Liu","year":"2023","journal-title":"World J Urol"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3124","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-024-20624-4","article-title":"Global burden and cross-country health inequalities of early-onset colorectal cancer and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021 and its projection until 2036","volume":"24","author":"J Zhang","year":"2024","journal-title":"BMC public health"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1526524","DOI":"10.3389\/fneur.2025.1526524","article-title":"Analysis of the burden of intracerebral hemorrhage in the Asian population aged 45 and older and ARIMA model prediction trends: a systematic study based on the GBD 2021","volume":"16","author":"M Xu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Neurol"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1503144","DOI":"10.3389\/fendo.2025.1503144","article-title":"Global burden of thyroid cancer among adolescents and young adults, 1990-2021, and projections to 2050: an analysis based on the GBD 2021","volume":"16","author":"MJ Jia","year":"2025","journal-title":"Frontiers in Endocrinology"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0332265.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"134","DOI":"10.2478\/jtim-2022-0031","article-title":"Prevalence and Risk Factors of Hyperuricemia and Gout: A Cross-sectional Survey from 31 Provinces in Mainland China","volume":"10","author":"J Song","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Transl Int Med"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1591","DOI":"10.2147\/JIR.S284759","article-title":"Managing Gout in Women: Current Perspectives","volume":"15","author":"AV Patel","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Inflamm Res"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0332265.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"62","DOI":"10.1186\/s12882-023-03109-1","article-title":"The prevalence of chronic kidney disease in South Africa - limitations of studies comparing prevalence with sub-Saharan Africa, Africa, and globally","volume":"24","author":"S Hariparshad","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Nephrol"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0332265.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1799","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ekir.2020.06.036","article-title":"Predictors and Prognosis of HIV-Associated Nephropathy on Kidney Biopsy in South Africa","volume":"5","author":"H Bookholane","year":"2020","journal-title":"Kidney Int Rep"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0332265.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.3892\/mmr.2024.13424","article-title":"Insights into renal damage in hyperuricemia: Focus on renal protection (Review)","volume":"31","author":"H Yang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Mol Med Rep"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1455726","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1455726","article-title":"The changing burden of gout in adults aged 70 and above based on the global burden of disease 2019","volume":"13","author":"Y Yang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112066","DOI":"10.1016\/j.diabres.2025.112066","article-title":"Global, regional and national burden and trends of disease attributable to high body mass index in adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2021","volume":"222","author":"R Li","year":"2025","journal-title":"Diabetes Res Clin Pract"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0332265.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"653","DOI":"10.1007\/s40266-024-01132-x","article-title":"Managing Gout in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome","volume":"41","author":"E Ebstein","year":"2024","journal-title":"Drugs Aging"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0332265.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3310","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-025-86090-z","article-title":"A comprehensive analysis of trends in the burden of gout in China and globally from 1990 to 2021","volume":"15","author":"S Xie","year":"2025","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"pone.0332265.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"80","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2020.00080","article-title":"Health System Outcomes in BRICS Countries and Their Association With the Economic Context","volume":"8","author":"P Romaniuk","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0332265.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"638","DOI":"10.1093\/rheumatology\/keac369","article-title":"Genetic contributions to female gout and hyperuricaemia using genome-wide association study and polygenic risk score analyses","volume":"62","author":"C-Y Lin","year":"2023","journal-title":"Rheumatology (Oxford)"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0332265.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1119","DOI":"10.1007\/s40618-023-02224-y","article-title":"Clustering of gout-related comorbidities and their relationship with gout flares: a data-driven cluster analysis of eight comorbidities","volume":"47","author":"S Liu","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Endocrinol Invest"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0332265","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,24]],"date-time":"2025-09-24T17:43:55Z","timestamp":1758735835000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0332265"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Junzheng","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,24]]},"references-count":31,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,24]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0332265","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,24]]}}}