{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]],"date-time":"2026-03-13T18:49:44Z","timestamp":1773427784022,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]],"date-time":"2026-03-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1773360000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Hunan Provincial Undergraduate Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program","award":["042500022"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["042500022"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"\n The step-up effect of great coaches on Olympic performance has been widely recognized, but its dynamic influence mechanism and quantitative evaluation remain methodological challenges. This study proposes a Change-Point Driven Difference-in-Differences with Decay Model (\n \n \n \n \n \n \n CPD-D<\/mml:mtext>\n \n 3<\/mml:mn>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n <\/mml:msup>\n \u00a0<\/mml:mtext>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:alternatives>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n ), which integrates the CUSUM algorithm, dynamic difference method (DID), and exponential decay function. The Great Coach effect\u2019s nonlinear characteristics and time attenuation rule were analyzed systematically. First, based on the improved CUSUM algorithm to detect the abrupt points of performance, the dual test mechanism of medal continuity and competition size stability was introduced to filter the pseudo-abrupt signals (such as the host effect and short-term strategic interference). Secondly, a hierarchical DID model was used to quantify the net effect of heterogeneous coach turnover events to solve the problem of traditional methods ignoring the dynamic confounding bias and run-in period. Finally, the sustainability difference of the coaching effects is revealed by the half-life model. Empirical studies show that the effect half-life of a systematic coaching system (such as Zhou Jihong coaching the Chinese diving team) is more than 20 years, while the technology-driven intervention (such as the AI tactical optimization for Japanese judo) has a half-life of only 5.3 years. The model predicts that in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, the introduction of great coaches will enable the Brazilian swimming team to achieve a breakthrough from 0 to 5 medals (95% CI: 4.7\u20136.3). This study provides an explainable and predictive framework for the allocation of coaching resources in Olympic strategy, and its methodology can be extended to dynamic causal inference in policy evaluation and organizational management.\n <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0334635","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]],"date-time":"2026-03-13T17:50:15Z","timestamp":1773424215000},"page":"e0334635","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Quantifying the impact of great coaches on Olympic medal predictions: A CPD-D3 model analysis"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"You","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Keyu","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Wenyao","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yan","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6368-8645","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shangru","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jun","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xidao","family":"Luan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Changhong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chenggang","family":"Deng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yingxuan","family":"Xiao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0334635.ref001","first-page":"9","article-title":"Marginal gains: Olympic lessons in high performance for organisations","volume":"7","author":"D Hall","year":"2012","journal-title":"HR Bulletin: Research and Practice"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0334635.ref002","first-page":"389","article-title":"Combat sports, towards a tactical purpose model of talent selection","volume":"15","author":"BS C\u00f3rdova","year":"2020","journal-title":"Revista PODIUM"},{"key":"pone.0334635.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"522","DOI":"10.4324\/9781315885094","article-title":"Sport psychology: Performance enhancement, performance inhibition, individuals, and teams","volume-title":"Sport psychology: performance enhancement, performance inhibition, individuals, and teams","author":"NT Gallucci","year":"2013"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0334635.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"300","DOI":"10.1080\/16184742.2019.1606264","article-title":"Elite sport policies and international sporting success: a panel data analysis of European women\u2019s national football team performance","volume":"20","author":"M Valenti","year":"2019","journal-title":"European Sport Management Quarterly"},{"key":"pone.0334635.ref005","first-page":"239","article-title":"Coaching effectiveness in the sport domain","author":"TS Horn","year":"2008","journal-title":"Advances in sport psychology"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0334635.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.5604\/20815735.1127451","article-title":"Dynamics of judo contests performed by top world judokas in the years 2008-2012","volume":"1","author":"D Boguszewski","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Combat Sport Mart Arts"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0334635.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1111\/sms.12029","article-title":"\u201cWhat do coaches do\u201d and \u201chow do they relate\u201d: their effects on athletes\u2019 psychological needs and functioning","volume":"23","author":"L Felton","year":"2013","journal-title":"Scand J Med Sci Sports"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0334635.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"012058","DOI":"10.1088\/1757-899X\/1099\/1\/012058","article-title":"Analyzing evolution of the Olympics by exploratory data analysis using R","volume":"1099","author":"R Pradhan","year":"2021","journal-title":"IOP Conf Ser: Mater Sci Eng"},{"key":"pone.0334635.ref009","unstructured":"Wang Y, Wang J, Huang TY, Yang J, Yang G, Xu Z. 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