{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,5]],"date-time":"2026-02-05T07:21:09Z","timestamp":1770276069224,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]],"date-time":"2025-11-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1763337600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study aims to solve the problem of the shortage of professional nursing staff and the inability of the quality of nursing services to meet the needs of the elderly. Therefore, a longitudinal research type was adopted for long-term tracking and observation, with a time span from 2017 to 2020. The disability status of the elderly in China was analyzed, and appropriate sample data were selected to construct a comprehensive disability level assessment system. Then, a prediction method for disability scale and level based on the queue element method was proposed. Finally, based on the prediction results, a pension cost optimization strategy was designed, and the current pension methods and economic costs of the elderly were discussed, aiming to providing new ways to solve the deep aging dilemma of Chinese society and families. The results showed that the disability scale prediction method calculated that the growth rate of elderly people from 2025 to 2035 would exceed 65%. Moreover, the prediction error accuracy of elderly people nationwide in 2025 was only \u22120.03%, and the growth rate of elderly people has reached 69.07%. Compared with mainstream random forests, artificial neural networks, and long short-term memory networks, the research method showed excellent prediction performance, with average absolute error, mean square error, average prediction error, and running time of 0.617576, 0.000053, 0.005007, and 10.24\u2009ms, respectively. The economic cost of nursing for severe disabilities in institutions was nearly 3 times that of mild disabilities and 3.8 times that of home care. The above information shows that the research method can accurately assess the disability level and care needs of the elderly and propose targeted improvement strategies. This method can strengthen the establishment of the nursing service system for disabled elderly people, and build a full chain nursing system including hospitals, elderly care institutions, families, and communities. The study provides strong support for the comprehensive implementation of the long-term care insurance system.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0336605","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]],"date-time":"2025-11-17T18:24:53Z","timestamp":1763403893000},"page":"e0336605","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Prediction of disability levels and research on nursing economic costs for elderly people in China"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-7113-3185","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shiyan","family":"Lu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yongxiu","family":"Kuang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]]},"reference":[{"issue":"13","key":"pone.0336605.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0000000000207665","article-title":"Age-Related Changes in Neurologic Examination and Sensory Nerve Amplitude in the General Population: Aging of the Peripheral Nervous System","volume":"101","author":"NE Taams","year":"2023","journal-title":"Neurology"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0336605.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"381","DOI":"10.1097\/HJH.0000000000003023","article-title":"Influencing factors of supernormal vascular aging in Chinese population","volume":"40","author":"B Tao","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Hypertens"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0336605.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2258","DOI":"10.1007\/s12011-022-03351-y","article-title":"Association of Blood Selenium Level with Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in the Aging Population: a Cross-sectional Study","volume":"201","author":"D Chen","year":"2023","journal-title":"Biol Trace Elem Res"},{"issue":"13","key":"pone.0336605.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5784","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.est.3c06268","article-title":"Aging Increases Global Annual Food Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 300 Million Tonnes by 2100","volume":"58","author":"K Yin","year":"2024","journal-title":"Environ Sci Technol"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0336605.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2126","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.27594","article-title":"Case fatality and mortality rates, socio-demographic profile, and clinical features of COVID-19 in the elderly population: A population-based registry study in Iran","volume":"94","author":"ED Esmaeili","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0336605.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0000000000209371","article-title":"Author Response: Eligibility for Anti-Amyloid Treatment in a Population-Based Study of Cognitive Aging","volume":"103","author":"M Vassilaki","year":"2024","journal-title":"Neurology"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0336605.ref007","first-page":"30","article-title":"Cisplatin Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in an Aging Population With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer","volume":"36","author":"J Gong","year":"2022","journal-title":"Oncology (Williston Park)"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0336605.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1177\/1524838020925773","article-title":"Cumulative Contexts of Vulnerability to Intimate Partner Violence Among Women With Disabilities, Elderly Women, and Immigrant Women: Prevalence, Risk Factors, Explanatory Theories, and Prevention","volume":"23","author":"N Sasseville","year":"2022","journal-title":"Trauma Violence Abuse"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0336605.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1396","DOI":"10.1177\/0192513X19841659","article-title":"Care Stress Experienced by Caregivers of Elderly Individuals With Disabilities and the Coping Strategies Utilized: A Survey Study in the City of Nanjing, China","volume":"40","author":"S Shen","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Family Issues"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0336605.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"405","DOI":"10.1108\/ER-04-2018-0117","article-title":"Job crafting and well-being in the elderly care sector: the effect of over-commitment","volume":"41","author":"M Romeo","year":"2019","journal-title":"ER"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0336605.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"674","DOI":"10.1111\/ggi.13936","article-title":"Patterns of elderly people\u2019s long-term care risks and determinants: A methodological study in a Japanese city","volume":"20","author":"K Sato Osaki","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geriatr Gerontol Int"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0336605.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"878","DOI":"10.1111\/scs.12684","article-title":"Tracheostomy care education and its effect on knowledge and burden of caregivers of elderly patients: a quasi-experimental study","volume":"33","author":"T Karaca","year":"2019","journal-title":"Scand J Caring Sci"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0336605.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"628","DOI":"10.1093\/eurpub\/ckaa045","article-title":"The relationship between physical activity and out-of-pocket health care costs of the elderly in Europe","volume":"30","author":"S Dallmeyer","year":"2020","journal-title":"Eur J Public Health"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0336605.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1477","DOI":"10.1111\/jar.12890","article-title":"Mitigating the impact of the \u2018silos\u2019 between the disability and aged\u2010care sectors in Australia: Development of a Best Practice Framework","volume":"34","author":"R Hussain","year":"2021","journal-title":"Research Intellect Disabil"},{"key":"pone.0336605.ref015","first-page":"1","article-title":"Effects of horticultural therapy on health in the elderly: A review and meta-analysis","author":"J Yun","year":"2023","journal-title":"Z Gesundh Wiss"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0336605.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1613","DOI":"10.1007\/s10209-023-01011-z","article-title":"A comprehensive review of mobile user interfaces in mHealth applications for elderly and the related ageing barriers","volume":"23","author":"H Ramdowar","year":"2023","journal-title":"Univ Access Inf Soc"},{"issue":"19","key":"pone.0336605.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17927","DOI":"10.1007\/s12144-023-05283-9","article-title":"Impact of Covid-19 on the mental health of elderly people: a review-based investigation","volume":"43","author":"S Kaur","year":"2023","journal-title":"Curr Psychol"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0336605.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"549","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jagp.2023.03.011","article-title":"Asian Immigrants and Mass Shootings: Discrimination, Cultural Taboos, Isolated Communities, and Mental Health in Elderly Asians","volume":"31","author":"W Sun","year":"2023","journal-title":"Am J Geriatr Psychiatry"},{"issue":"05","key":"pone.0336605.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"567","DOI":"10.4236\/health.2019.115048","article-title":"Significant Differences in Elderly Health between Urban and Rural Communities: A Literature Review","volume":"11","author":"J Imaiso","year":"2019","journal-title":"Health"},{"key":"pone.0336605.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2020.00231","article-title":"Socioeconomic Status and Access to Healthcare: Interrelated Drivers for Healthy Aging","volume":"8","author":"DJ McMaughan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0336605.ref021","first-page":"3712","article-title":"H \u221e Pinning Synchronization Control for Markovian Intermittent Time-Varying Coupled Neural Networks Under Multiplicative Noises","volume":"70","author":"H Peng","year":"2023","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Circuits Syst I"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0336605.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1275","DOI":"10.1111\/jonm.12809","article-title":"Potential of a nurse telephone triage line to direct elderly to appropriate health care settings","volume":"27","author":"M J\u00e1come","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Nurs Manag"},{"key":"pone.0336605.ref023","article-title":"Frailty and Associated Risk Factors in Elderly People with Health Examination in Rural Areas of China","author":"J Gu","year":"2020","journal-title":"ijph"},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0336605.ref024","first-page":"4171","article-title":"Alcohol consumption patterns and associated factors among elderly Brazilians: National Health Survey (2013)","volume":"24","author":"BP Noronha","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cien Saude Colet"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0336605.ref025","first-page":"2392","article-title":"The Influence of Pain on Frailty among the Elderly: Based on Korea Health Panel","volume":"49","author":"SM Shin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Iran J Public Health"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0336605.ref026","first-page":"2041","article-title":"Factors associated with functional capacity in the elderly enrolled in the Family Health Strategy","volume":"25","author":"LB Moreira","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cien Saude Colet"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0336605.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"595","DOI":"10.1109\/JBHI.2023.3348248","article-title":"Guest Editorial Camera-Based Health Monitoring in Real-World Scenarios","volume":"28","author":"W Wang","year":"2024","journal-title":"IEEE J Biomed Health Inform"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0336605.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3954","DOI":"10.1109\/TSE.2021.3108162","article-title":"Accessible or Not? An Empirical Investigation of Android App Accessibility","volume":"48","author":"S Chen","year":"2022","journal-title":"IIEEE Trans Software Eng"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0336605.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1205","DOI":"10.1109\/JBHI.2022.3174033","article-title":"Biceph-Net: A Robust and Lightweight Framework for the Diagnosis of Alzheimer\u2019s Disease Using 2D-MRI Scans and Deep Similarity Learning","volume":"27","author":"AH Rashid","year":"2023","journal-title":"IEEE J Biomed Health Inform"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0336605.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.47852\/bonviewGLCE3202955","article-title":"The Administrative Center or Economic Center: Which Dominates the Regional Green Development Pattern? A Case Study of Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration, China","volume":"1","author":"K Liu","year":"2023","journal-title":"GLCE"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0336605.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.47852\/bonviewGLCE32021065","article-title":"Exploring the Way to Harmonize Sustainable Development Assessment Methods in Article 6.2 Cooperative Approaches of the Paris Agreement","volume":"1","author":"C Oh","year":"2023","journal-title":"GLCE"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0336605.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"90","DOI":"10.1080\/1059924X.2022.2137617","article-title":"Thinking the Future of Agricultural Worker Health on a Warming Planet and an Automating Farm","volume":"28","author":"M Comi","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Agromedicine"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0336605.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1420","DOI":"10.1177\/00207640231164014","article-title":"Does migrant workers\u2019 subjective social status affect their mental health? Job satisfaction as a longitudinal mediator","volume":"69","author":"J Zhou","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Soc Psychiatry"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0336605.ref034","article-title":"Can Government Expenditure Improve the Efficiency of Institutional Elderly-Care Service? \u2013 Take Wuhan as an Example","volume":"18","author":"Z Rui","year":"2024","journal-title":"Economics"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0336605.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"602","DOI":"10.1097\/SCS.0000000000009960","article-title":"The Burden of Care of Nasoalveolar Molding: An Institutional Experience","volume":"35","author":"AR Alfonso","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Craniofac Surg"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0336605","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]],"date-time":"2025-11-17T18:25:00Z","timestamp":1763403900000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0336605"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Hyun Woo","family":"Jung","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0336605","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]]}}}