{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,13]],"date-time":"2026-04-13T19:01:07Z","timestamp":1776106867324,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,13]],"date-time":"2026-04-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776038400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1211169 and INV-031593"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1211169 and INV-031593"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100011523","name":"College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100011523","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Free-roaming dogs pose a significant public health concern due to their role in disease transmission. Rabies has been endemic in Kenya for over a century, yet a sustainable and standardized method for estimating dog populations remains unestablished. To address this gap, we applied kriging and co-kriging spatial interpolation techniques to predict the distribution of free-roaming domestic dogs across different Kenyan counties. To improve the model\u2019s accuracy, we incorporated environmental and demographic predictors such as daily temperature, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and human density. Dog population data at the village level were collected from 34 counties through an online survey of veterinary professionals in both the public and private sectors. A spherical model was used to construct the semivariogram, integrating temperature, NDVI, and human density to refine spatial predictions. Kenya\u2019s total free-roaming dog population was estimated to be 7.46 million. The density of dogs per square kilometer varied across counties, corresponding to a median national density of 12.13 dogs per square kilometer. Compared to models incorporating no or only single or multiple covariates, the co-kriging model incorporating human density provided the best fit, with the minimum estimated difference between observed and predicted values. The spatial distribution map highlights arid and sparsely populated pastoral counties having lower dog densities, whereas peri-urban, densely populated, and agricultural counties exhibit higher dog numbers. This study provides a spatial framework for estimating free-roaming dog populations, which can inform the design and implementation of rabies control programs and public health interventions in Kenya and other infected countries.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0343347","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,13]],"date-time":"2026-04-13T17:36:08Z","timestamp":1776101768000},"page":"e0343347","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Spatial prediction of dog population distribution in Kenya"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5848-9054","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Moumita","family":"Das","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Maria Sol Perez","family":"Aguirreburualde","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Shepelo Getrude","family":"Peter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anima","family":"Sirma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andres","family":"Perez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0343347.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20928","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-25038-z","article-title":"Habitat selection by free-roaming domestic dogs in rabies endemic countries in rural and urban settings","volume":"12","author":"L Cunha Silva","year":"2022","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hampson K, Coudeville L, Lembo T, Sambo M, Kieffer A, Attlan M, et al. Estimating the Global Burden of Endemic Canine Rabies. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.2015;9:e0003709. https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosntds\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003709","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003709"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0343347.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.1186\/s12917-018-1485-1","article-title":"Bat rabies surveillance and risk factors for rabies spillover in an urban area of Southern Brazil","volume":"14","author":"J Ribeiro","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMC Vet Res"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2018.11.035","article-title":"The impact of transmission dynamics of rabies control: systematic review","volume":"37","author":"W Rattanavipapong","year":"2019","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0343347.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2020-048551","article-title":"Rabies mortality and morbidity associated with animal bites in Africa: a case for integrated rabies disease surveillance, prevention and control: a scoping review","volume":"11","author":"PS Nyasulu","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"502","DOI":"10.3390\/ani10030502","article-title":"Humanity\u2019s best friend: a dog-centric approach to addressing global challenges","volume":"10","author":"N Sykes","year":"2020","journal-title":"Animals"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0343347.ref007","first-page":"1693","article-title":"Size, spatial and household distribution, and rabies vaccination coverage of the Brazilian owned-dog population","volume":"66","author":"OS Baquero","year":"2019","journal-title":"Transbound Emerg Dis"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0343347.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.2328","article-title":"Spatial and temporal dynamics of space use by free-ranging domestic dogs Canis familiaris in rural Africa","volume":"31","author":"JK Wilson-Aggarwal","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ecol Appl"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31746","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-82358-y","article-title":"Estimation of the size, density, and demographic distribution of the UK pet dog population in 2019","volume":"14","author":"KM McMillan","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100411","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2022.100411","article-title":"Identifying high-risk areas for dog-mediated rabies using Bayesian spatial regression","volume":"15","author":"KST Kanankege","year":"2022","journal-title":"One Health"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref011","first-page":"77","article-title":"Estimating the Size of Dog Populations in Tanzania to Inform Rabies Control","volume":"5","author":"M Sambo","year":"2018","journal-title":"Vet Sci"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"790701","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2021.790701","article-title":"Spatial Distribution and Population Estimation of Dogs in Thailand: Implications for Rabies Prevention and Control","volume":"8","author":"W Thanapongtharm","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front Vet Sci"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1126","DOI":"10.3390\/ani13071126","article-title":"Evaluation of dynamics, demography and estimation of free-roaming dog population in Herat city, Afghanistan","volume":"13","author":"Z Nasiry","year":"2023","journal-title":"Animals"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0124092","article-title":"Owned and unowned dog population estimation, dog management and dog bites to inform rabies prevention and response on Lombok Island, Indonesia","volume":"10","author":"A Mustiana","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLOS ONE"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0343347.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"190","DOI":"10.1186\/s12917-019-1938-1","article-title":"A comparison of population estimation techniques for individually unidentifiable free-roaming dogs","volume":"15","author":"NV Meunier","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMC Vet Res"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Porras G, Diaz EW, Puente MDl, Gavidia CM, Castillo-Neyra R. Estimation of free-roaming dog populations using Google Street View: A validation study. bioRxiv. 2024. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2024.06.03.596211v1","DOI":"10.1101\/2024.06.03.596211"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"280","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2006.05.013","article-title":"Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data","volume":"76","author":"AM Perez","year":"2006","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"issue":"9","key":"pone.0343347.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4218","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.7317","article-title":"Who let the dogs out? Exploring the spatial ecology of free-roaming domestic dogs in western Kenya","volume":"11","author":"P Muinde","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0343347.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1016\/S0001-706X(01)00082-1","article-title":"Dog ecology and demography information to support the planning of rabies control in Machakos District, Kenya","volume":"78","author":"P Kitala","year":"2001","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.12688\/aasopenres.12902.1","article-title":"Dog health and demographic surveillance survey in Western Kenya: Demography and management practices relevant for rabies transmission and control","volume":"2","author":"EN Kwoba","year":"2019","journal-title":"AAS Open Research"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0343347.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008260","article-title":"Volunteer based approach to dog vaccination campaigns to eliminate human rabies: Lessons from Laikipia County, Kenya","volume":"14","author":"AW Ferguson","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0343347.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"558","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2005.01.006","article-title":"A cokriging method for estimating population density in urban areas","volume":"29","author":"C Wu","year":"2005","journal-title":"Computers, Environment and Urban Systems"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref023","article-title":"A probability co-kriging model to account for reporting bias and recognize areas at high risk for zebra mussels and Eurasian watermilfoil invasions in Minnesota","volume":"4","author":"KST Kanankege","year":"2018","journal-title":"Frontiers in Veterinary Science"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref024","first-page":"060034","author":"SAD Safitri","year":"2021"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0343347.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1214","DOI":"10.1093\/jmammal\/gyv130","article-title":"Ecological predictors of African wild dog ranging patterns in northern Botswana","volume":"96","author":"MA Pomilia","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Mammalogy"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.3354\/cr00936","article-title":"The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): unforeseen successes in animal ecology","volume":"46","author":"N Pettorelli","year":"2011","journal-title":"Climate Research"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0343347.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"677","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-020-02394-3","article-title":"Environmental factors regulate occupancy of free-ranging dogs on a sub-Antarctic island, Chile","volume":"23","author":"J Contardo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Biol Invasions"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0343347.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4302","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5086","article-title":"WorldClim 2: new 1\u2010km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"37","author":"SE Fick","year":"2017","journal-title":"Intl Journal of Climatology"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref029","unstructured":"Understanding cokriging\u2014ArcMap. https:\/\/desktop.arcgis.com\/en\/arcmap\/latest\/extensions\/geostatistical-analyst\/understanding-cokriging.htm 2025 February 9."},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref030","unstructured":"Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. Kriging interpolation explanation. https:\/\/www.publichealth.columbia.edu\/research\/population-health-methods\/kriging-interpolation. 2016. 2025 February 9."},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref031","unstructured":"Creating empirical semivariograms\u2014ArcGIS Pro. https:\/\/pro.arcgis.com\/en\/pro-app\/latest\/help\/analysis\/geostatistical-analyst\/creating-empirical-semivariograms.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com 2025 February 9."},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref032","unstructured":"Kriging Variogram Model. https:\/\/vsp.pnnl.gov\/help\/Vsample\/Kriging_Variogram_Model.htm 2025 February 9."},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref033","unstructured":"Zoonotic Disease Unit. Strategic plan for the elimination of human rabies in Kenya 2014\u20132030. https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar_lookup?&title=Strategic%20Plan%20for%20the%20Elimination%20of%20Human%20Rabies%20in%20Kenya%202014%E2%80%932030&publication_year=2014 2014. 2025 February 20."},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref034","unstructured":"World Bank. Demographic transition and growth in Kenya. https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/news\/opinion\/2010\/04\/28\/demographic-transition-growth-kenya 2025 February 20."},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref035","first-page":"109","article-title":"The character and profile of artisanal and small-scale gemstone mining community in Taita Taveta county, Kenya","author":"S Anyona","year":"2022","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Sustainable Research and Innovation Conference"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2021.e08347","article-title":"Owned and free-roaming dogs in the North West of Tunisia: estimation, characteristics and application for the control of dog rabies","volume":"7","author":"S Kalthoum","year":"2021","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref037","unstructured":"Syomiti M, Mwangi J, Nginyi J, Opondo M, Muta P. Current Status of Dairy Production Systems and Management Practices in Taita-Taveta and Makueni Counties of Kenya. https:\/\/www.apsk.or.ke\/APSK-Documents\/PDF\/2019\/APSK_2019_Symposium_Proceedings.pdf#page=83"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0343347.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"605","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2013.06.010","article-title":"Conceptual domain of the matrix in fragmented landscapes","volume":"28","author":"DA Driscoll","year":"2013","journal-title":"Trends Ecol Evol"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0276880","article-title":"Investigating the free-roaming dog population and gastrointestinal parasite diversity in Tul\u00fam, M\u00e9xico","volume":"17","author":"MA Lyons","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLOS ONE"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref040","unstructured":"Pingle T. Reasons contributing to free-roaming dog populations and their effects on society. https:\/\/nhsjs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Reasons-Contributing-to-Free-Roaming-Dog-Populations-and-their-Effects-on-Society.pdf 2024. 2025 March 18."},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"164324","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2023.164324","article-title":"On the causes and consequences of the free-roaming dog problem in southern Chile","volume":"891","author":"EA Silva-Rodr\u00edguez","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0343347.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/fes3.70037","article-title":"Improved Dietary Diversity Through Potato Commercialization in Nyandarua County, Kenya","volume":"14","author":"D Wakaba","year":"2025","journal-title":"Food and Energy Security"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref043","unstructured":"Rotich RK, Kibett J, Kere GM. Factors influencing farmers\u2019 access to the market on food produced on urban and peri-urban areas of Kericho County, Kenya. 2021. http:\/\/ir-library.kabianga.ac.ke\/handle\/123456789\/294"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0343347.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009220","article-title":"Dog ownership practices and responsibilities for children\u2019s health in terms of rabies control and prevention in rural communities in Tanzania","volume":"15","author":"L Sikana","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1526551","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2025.1526551","article-title":"Assessing veterinary professionals\u2019 perspectives on community knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding dog rabies in Turkana, Kenya","volume":"12","author":"M Das","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Vet Sci"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1020","DOI":"10.3390\/ani9121020","article-title":"The Effectiveness of Dog Population Management: A Systematic Review","volume":"9","author":"LM Smith","year":"2019","journal-title":"Animals"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-017-0306-2","article-title":"The impact of poverty on dog ownership and access to canine rabies vaccination: results from a knowledge, attitudes and practices survey, Uganda 2013","volume":"6","author":"RM Wallace","year":"2017","journal-title":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty"},{"key":"pone.0343347.ref048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"272","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2010.01.002","article-title":"Demography of domestic dogs in rural and urban areas of the Coquimbo region of Chile and implications for disease transmission","volume":"94","author":"G Acosta-Jamett","year":"2010","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0343347.ref049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.2307\/2843971","article-title":"Transhumance, Migratory Drift, Migration; Patterns of Pastoral Fulani Nomadism","volume":"87","author":"DJ Stenning","year":"1957","journal-title":"The Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0343347.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.2979\/jims.3.2.04","article-title":"The Canine Companion of the Cave: The Place of the Dog in Qur\u2019\u0101nic Taxonomy","volume":"3","author":"Tlili","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Islamic and Muslim Studies"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0343347","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,13]],"date-time":"2026-04-13T17:36:21Z","timestamp":1776101781000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0343347"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Mehdi","family":"Borhani","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,13]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,13]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0343347","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,13]]}}}