{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,16]],"date-time":"2026-04-16T18:48:04Z","timestamp":1776365284706,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,16]],"date-time":"2026-04-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776297600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Though Bayesian methods are flexible, intuitive, and readily incorporated into clinical decision-making, with particular utility when prior information is available, they remain underutilized in the analysis of clinical trials.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In PINETREE, a Phase 3 randomized controlled trial (RCT) of remdesivir (RDV) for the treatment of outpatients with COVID-19 at high risk of severe disease, the primary outcome of COVID-19\u2013related hospitalization or all-cause death was reanalyzed using a range of reference and data-driven priors. Posterior probability distributions were used to calculate the probability that the estimated hazard ratio (HR) was below a range of clinically meaningful specified thresholds and to estimate the treatment effect and its 95% credible interval (CrI).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Under a minimally informative prior, the posterior probability of an estimated HR less than 1 for COVID-19\u2013related hospitalization or all-cause death was 1 with a posterior median HR 0.13 and 95% CrI 0.02\u20130.47, recovering the frequentist estimates. Moreover, estimated posterior probability distributions, posterior median HRs, and 95% CrIs were robust across a range of both reference and data-driven prior choices, indicating the strength of the trial data. Lastly, using priors that incorporate historical RCT data, precision of the estimated posterior median HR and 95% CrI was improved over na\u00efve, frequentist estimates.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In a Bayesian reanalysis of the PINETREE trial, there was a 98.9% or greater probability that treatment with RDV reduced the risk of COVID-19\u2013related hospitalization or all-cause death across all prior probability distributions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0346878","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,16]],"date-time":"2026-04-16T17:50:13Z","timestamp":1776361813000},"page":"e0346878","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Bayesian reanalysis of early remdesivir for the treatment of 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