{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T18:14:10Z","timestamp":1780510450671,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780444800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Life expectancy (LE) serves as a central indicator of population health, reflecting the combined effects of social, economic, and demographic factors. Despite global improvements, substantial disparities persist across regions and development levels. This study aims to analyze temporal and spatial trends in life expectancy at birth (LEB) and assess its relationship with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) from 1960 to 2023, with projections to 2050.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>LE data for 190 countries from 1960 to 2023 were obtained from Our World in Data, while the SDI, reflecting overall social and economic development, was derived from GBD data. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate annual and average annual percentage changes (APC, AAPC) across countries, regions, and SDI groups. Correlation analyses assessed the strength of association between LEB and SDI. Future trends were projected using a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, generating estimates up to 2050 with 95% credible intervals.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Global LE increased steadily from 1960 to 2023, with an overall AAPC of 0.58%. Despite this progress, large regional and socio-demographic gaps persist. Lower-SDI and low-income regions exhibited faster relative growth but greater fluctuations, whereas higher-SDI regions demonstrated slower yet stable improvement. The correlation between LEB and SDI remained strong throughout the study period (r\u2009=\u20090.82\u20130.90). Projections from the BAPC model indicate continued increases in LE, from 73.6 years in 2025 to 82.8 years in 2050, although uncertainty widens toward mid-century, reflecting potential divergence in global health trajectories.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>LE has improved globally but remains uneven across socio-demographic contexts. Strengthening social and economic systems, expanding equitable healthcare access, and integrating SDI-based evidence into policy frameworks are essential to sustain progress toward health equity and longevity through 2050 and beyond.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0347865","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T17:38:26Z","timestamp":1780508306000},"page":"e0347865","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A study of trends and projection of life expectancy and its association with socio-demographic index: Results from GBD study 2023"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9658-130X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Reza","family":"Taherian","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0822-9104","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Maryam","family":"Karimi Ghahfarokhi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7791-8122","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Farid","family":"Zayeri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0347865.ref001","first-page":"1","article-title":"Determinant factors of life expectancy at birth in the European union countries","volume":"38","author":"V Bilas","year":"2014","journal-title":"Coll Antropol"},{"issue":"10053","key":"pone.0347865.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1459","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(16)31012-1","article-title":"Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980\u20132015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015","volume":"388","author":"H Wang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0347865.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s41118-019-0071-0","article-title":"Socioeconomic development and life expectancy relationship: evidence from the EU accession candidate countries","volume":"76","author":"G Miladinov","year":"2020","journal-title":"Genus"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref004","volume-title":"World development indicators: World Bank","author":"Group WBIEDDD, Group WBIEDDD","year":"1978"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref005","volume-title":"World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results: Stylus Publishing, LLC","author":"Economic Do","year":"2024"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref006","volume-title":"Human development report 2023-24. Human Development Reports","author":"U Nations","year":"2024"},{"issue":"10100","key":"pone.0347865.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1084","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)31833-0","article-title":"Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970\u20132016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016","volume":"390","author":"H Wang","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0347865.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"476","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-018-5377-x","article-title":"Correlates of healthy life expectancy in low- and lower-middle-income countries","volume":"18","author":"MS Islam","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref009","unstructured":"Desa U. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division World Population Prospects. 2019. \u200c\u200c"},{"issue":"9464","key":"pone.0347865.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1099","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(05)71146-6","article-title":"Social determinants of health inequalities","volume":"365","author":"M Marmot","year":"2005","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.17654\/0972361722063","article-title":"FORECASTING LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH USING TIME SERIES AND HOLT\u2019S METHOD IN SAUDI ARABIA ACCORDING TO SAUDI VISION 2030","volume":"79","author":"R Alharbi","year":"2022","journal-title":"ADAS"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref012","volume-title":"Life tables for the United States social security area, 1900-2100: Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary","author":"FC Bell","year":"2005"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bergeron-Boucher MP, Strozza C, Simonacci V, Oeppen J. Modeling and forecasting healthy life expectancy with compositional data analysis. 2022.","DOI":"10.31235\/osf.io\/ksrbj"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0347865.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1177\/1010539520983671","article-title":"A Systematic Review of Sociodemographic, Macroeconomic, and Health Resources Factors on Life Expectancy","volume":"33","author":"AAB Wirayuda","year":"2021","journal-title":"Asia Pac J Public Health"},{"issue":"10258","key":"pone.0347865.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1160","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30977-6","article-title":"Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950\u20132019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019","volume":"396","author":"H Wang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0347865.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1093\/eurpub\/ckae010","article-title":"Global health inequality: analyses of life disparity and healthy life disparity","volume":"34","author":"Y Zheng","year":"2024","journal-title":"Eur J Public Health"},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0347865.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0030442","article-title":"Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030","volume":"3","author":"CD Mathers","year":"2006","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref018","unstructured":"Feigin V, GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for249 causes of death, 1980\u20132015 - Supplementary Information 1. 2016;1980\u20132015."},{"issue":"10440","key":"pone.0347865.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2204","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00685-8","article-title":"Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022\u20132050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"403","author":"SE Vollset","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"10159","key":"pone.0347865.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1859","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)32335-3","article-title":"Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990\u20132017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017","volume":"392","author":"HH Kyu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"04185","DOI":"10.7189\/jogh.13.04185","article-title":"Healthy life expectancy for 202 countries up to 2030: Projections with a Bayesian model ensemble","volume":"13","author":"J Cai","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Glob Health"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shang HL. Mortality and life expectancy forecasting for a group of populations in developed countries: A multilevel functional data method. 2016.","DOI":"10.1214\/16-AOAS953"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref023","unstructured":"Dattani S, Rod\u00e9s-Guirao L, Ritchie H, Ortiz-Ospina E, Roser M. Life expectancy. Our world in data. 2023."},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0347865.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1615","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2017.303932","article-title":"Standard Period Life Table Used to Compute the Life Expectancy of Diseased Subpopulations: More Confusing Than Helpful","volume":"107","author":"L Perron","year":"2017","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0347865.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"537","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1728-4457.2005.00083.x","article-title":"Estimates of regional and global life expectancy, 1800\u20132001","volume":"31","author":"JC Riley","year":"2005","journal-title":"Population and Dev Rev"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0347865.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1005","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2004.00256.x","article-title":"Comparability of segmented line regression models","volume":"60","author":"H-J Kim","year":"2004","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0347865.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v021.i08","article-title":"Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction -BAMP","volume":"21","author":"VJ Schmid","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Stat Soft"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref028","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Age\u2013period\u2013cohort analysis. Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online","author":"TR Holford","year":"2014"},{"issue":"46","key":"pone.0347865.ref029","article-title":"Global, Regional, and National Trends in Liver Disease-Related Mortality Across 112 Countries From 1990 to 2021, With Projections to 2050: Comprehensive Analysis of the WHO Mortality Database","volume":"39","author":"JW Hahn","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Korean Med Sci"},{"issue":"10100","key":"pone.0347865.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1460","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)32367-X","article-title":"Measuring global health: motivation and evolution of the Global Burden of Disease Study","volume":"390","author":"CJL Murray","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref031","volume-title":"Global Trends in Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Global Public Health","author":"E Cambois","year":"2023"},{"issue":"10053","key":"pone.0347865.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1459","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(16)31012-1","article-title":"Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015","volume":"388","author":"OA Uthman","year":"2016","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"37","key":"pone.0347865.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87145","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-023-28330-1","article-title":"Spatiotemporal evolution and characteristics of worldwide life expectancy","volume":"30","author":"Y Li","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ Sci Pollut Res Int"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0347865.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5250","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1915884117","article-title":"Dynamics of life expectancy and life span equality","volume":"117","author":"JM Aburto","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref035","first-page":"166","article-title":"Six-Decade Trend Analysis of Life Expectancy at Birth in Asia, Regions of Asia and Iran: A Joinpoint Analysis","volume":"36","author":"M Salehi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Med J Islam Repub Iran"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2024.107167","article-title":"COVID-19 increased existing gender mortality gaps in high-income more than middle-income countries","volume":"148","author":"K Beegle","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int J Infect Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0347865.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2023.6041","article-title":"Widening gender gap in life expectancy in the US, 2010-2021","volume":"184","author":"BW Yan","year":"2024","journal-title":"JAMA Internal Medicine"},{"issue":"10440","key":"pone.0347865.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2259","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00769-4","article-title":"Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"403","author":"CJL Murray","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"10440","key":"pone.0347865.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2133","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00757-8","article-title":"Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990\u20132021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","volume":"403","author":"AJ Ferrari","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0347865.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyab207","article-title":"Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries","volume":"51","author":"JM Aburto","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0347865.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(20000215)19:3<335::AID-SIM336>3.0.CO;2-Z","article-title":"Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates","volume":"19","author":"HJ Kim","year":"2000","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0347865.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"845","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.5954","article-title":"Bayesian age-period-cohort models with versatile interactions and long-term predictions: mortality and population in Finland 1878-2050","volume":"33","author":"AS Havulinna","year":"2014","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"pone.0347865.ref043","first-page":"142","volume-title":"Bayesian age\u2013period\u2013cohort models. Age, period and cohort effects","author":"E Fosse","year":"2020"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0347865.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x","article-title":"Approximate Bayesian Inference for Latent Gaussian models by using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations","volume":"71","author":"H Rue","year":"2009","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser B Methodol"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0347865","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T17:38:33Z","timestamp":1780508313000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0347865"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Claudio Alberto","family":"D\u00e1vila-Cervantes","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]]},"references-count":44,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0347865","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]]}}}