{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T17:55:18Z","timestamp":1782928518908,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782864000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100010459","name":"Fundaci\u00f3n para el futuro de Colombia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1016000947"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1016000947"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100010459","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002322","name":"Coordena\u00e7\u00e3o de Aperfei\u00e7oamento de Pessoal de N\u00edvel Superior","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1016000947"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1016000947"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002322","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Identifying wild bird species associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is essential for optimizing surveillance and mitigating spillover risks. This study analyzes Brazil\u2019s nationwide HPAI surveillance data (up to July 2025), comprising 1,153 records across 127 bird and mammal species from 525 municipalities. Using a multi-model framework\u2014including chi-square association tests, binary logistic regression, and spatial Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). Species\u2013outbreak associations were significative and positive for\n                    <jats:italic>Thalasseus maximus<\/jats:italic>\n                    (\u03c7\u00b2\u2009=\u2009237.34, p\u2009&lt;\u20090.0001),\n                    <jats:italic>Thalasseus acuflavidus<\/jats:italic>\n                    (\u03c7\u00b2\u2009=\u2009216.12, p\u2009&lt;\u20090.0001),\n                    <jats:italic>Sterna hirundo<\/jats:italic>\n                    (\u03c7\u00b2\u2009=\u200983.88, p\u2009&lt;\u20090.0001), and\n                    <jats:italic>Sterna hirundinacea<\/jats:italic>\n                    (\u03c7\u00b2\u2009=\u200977.56, p\u2009&lt;\u20090.0001). An optimized logistic regression model (model 3) highlighted\n                    <jats:italic>T. acuflavidus<\/jats:italic>\n                    as the strongest predictor of HPAI (OR = 80.74; 95% CI: 21.85\u2013298.39; p\u2009&lt;\u20090.001), achieving good predictive performance (AUC\u2009=\u20090.85; Pseudo R\u00b2\u2009=\u20090.48). To account for spatial dependence, we fit a binomial GAM incorporating a bivariate longitude\u2013latitude spatial smoother, significantly improving model fit (AUC\u2009=\u20090.96; Pseudo R\u00b2\u2009=\u20090.58) and effectively accounting for residual spatial autocorrelation (Moran\u2019s I\u2009=\u20090.0399, z\u2009=\u20092.10, p\u2009=\u20090.044). Outbreaks were concentrated along Brazil\u2019s southeastern coast, overlapping with high-density poultry zones, while inland spread remained sporadic, suggesting migratory routes as key transmission pathways. These results underscore the critical role of seabirds\u2014particularly\n                    <jats:italic>T. acuflavidus<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2014in HPAI H5N1 dynamics in Brazil. The enhanced predictive power of the spatial GAM supports its utility in risk mapping. We recommend integrating biodiversity data with spatial modeling to guide targeted surveillance in high-risk coastal areas, reducing spillover threats to poultry and wild populations.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0350505","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T17:22:11Z","timestamp":1782926531000},"page":"e0350505","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Spatial association of seabirds and aquatic birds with highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in Brazil: A nationwide ecological and statistical modelling approach"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2390-4323","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Byron 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