{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T18:42:58Z","timestamp":1783536178740,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783468800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100016855","name":"World Resources Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["SDSN-SECR-PR01603"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SDSN-SECR-PR01603"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100016855","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study examines the environmental and resource implications of India\u2019s 20% ethanol blending mandate, with a focus on its effects on land use, water and fertilizer use, and greenhouse gas emissions. Using a global partial equilibrium model of the land-use sector, MAgPIE, we evaluate scenarios involving different feedstock combinations involving molasses and sugarcane juice. Results reveal that ethanol production from molasses exerts considerable pressure on natural resources due to the high land, water, and fertilizer demands of sugarcane. Conversely, ethanol derived from sugarcane juice proves to be a more sustainable option, requiring less water and fertilizer while generating lower greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, all scenarios present challenges related to food security, through increases in food prices, and resource competition. Sensitivity analysis shows that limited technological progress or constrained trade amplify domestic land, water, and emission burdens. Our findings provide directly usable evidence for designing India\u2019s biofuel roadmap. They can inform (a) the choice of feedstock-mix for achieving blending targets with lower land, water, and nitrogen footprints (b) complementary policies on fertilizer management, irrigation efficiency, and trade; and (c) the timing and scale-up of diversified and second-generation feedstocks. Overall, the study highlights that careful management of feedstock portfolios and supporting agricultural policies is essential for aligning India\u2019s ethanol expansion with long-term climate, food security, and resource sustainability goals.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0351419","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T17:26:18Z","timestamp":1783531578000},"page":"e0351419","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["India\u2019s biofuel blending policy presents serious trade-offs with land use, nitrogen emissions and food security"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9490-4470","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Chandan Kumar","family":"Jha","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Miodrag","family":"Stevanovi\u0107","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6458-3899","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Prantika","family":"Das","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jan Philipp","family":"Dietrich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aline","family":"Mosnier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alexander","family":"Popp","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ranjan Kumar","family":"Ghosh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0003-5508","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Hermann","family":"Lotze-Campen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0351419.ref001","unstructured":"UNFCCC. Paris Agreement. 2015. https:\/\/unfccc.int"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref002","first-page":"6","article-title":"Assessing the cost of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions: Global timber markets and the Paris Agreement","volume":"24","author":"N Forsell","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of Forest Economics"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0351419.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"850","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2392","article-title":"Betting on negative emissions","volume":"4","author":"S Fuss","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nature Clim Change"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0351419.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-018-0091-3","article-title":"Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 \u00b0C","volume":"8","author":"J Rogelj","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature Clim Change"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0351419.ref005","first-page":"91","article-title":"Understanding the social cost of carbon: A global assessment","volume":"4","author":"SK Rose","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nat Clim Chang"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref006","first-page":"307","article-title":"Environmental impact assessment of molasses-based ethanol in India","volume":"83","author":"D Pant","year":"2015","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref007","article-title":"Environmental assessment of sugarcane-based sugar, ethanol, and electricity production in India","author":"H Pathak","year":"2021","journal-title":"Bioresource Technology"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114246","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2023.114246","article-title":"Can biofuels help achieve sustainable development goals in India? A systematic review","volume":"192","author":"P Das","year":"2024","journal-title":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0351419.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2450","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2008.08.005","article-title":"Biofuels, biodiversity, and people: understanding the conflicts and finding opportunities","volume":"141","author":"LP Koh","year":"2008","journal-title":"Biological Conservation"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0351419.ref010","first-page":"283","article-title":"Impact of bioenergy demand on food prices and land-use change","volume":"1","author":"A Muller","year":"2011","journal-title":"Nature Climate Change"},{"issue":"5958","key":"pone.0351419.ref011","first-page":"1397","article-title":"Biofuels: economic and policy issues","volume":"326","author":"D Zilberman","year":"2012","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0351419.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"82","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gfs.2013.04.005","article-title":"How biofuels policies affect the level of grains and oilseed prices: Theory, models and evidence","volume":"2","author":"H de Gorter","year":"2013","journal-title":"Global Food Security"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0351419.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3235","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biombioe.2011.04.039","article-title":"Indirect land use change for biofuels: testing predictions and improving analytical methodologies","volume":"35","author":"S Kim","year":"2011","journal-title":"Biomass and Bioenergy"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0351419.ref014","first-page":"1356","article-title":"Biofuels and indirect land-use change effects: The debate continues","volume":"37","author":"JA Mathews","year":"2009","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"issue":"5867","key":"pone.0351419.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1238","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1151861","article-title":"Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change","volume":"319","author":"T Searchinger","year":"2008","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref016","first-page":"1332","article-title":"Biofuels and the politics of land-use in Ghana: a review","volume":"70","author":"B Aha","year":"2017","journal-title":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref017","first-page":"252","article-title":"Wasteland energy-scapes: a comparative energy flow analysis of India\u2019s biofuel and biodiesel programs","volume":"54","author":"J Baka","year":"2014","journal-title":"Geoforum"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"879","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2015.02.006","article-title":"Biofuels in sub-Sahara Africa: Drivers, impacts and priority policy areas","volume":"45","author":"A Gasparatos","year":"2015","journal-title":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref019","article-title":"Bioenergy\u2019s carbon costs and alternatives","author":"Z Cheng","year":"2024","journal-title":"Environ Res Lett"},{"issue":"36","key":"pone.0351419.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21968","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1920877117","article-title":"Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels","volume":"117","author":"JL Field","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0351419.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-017-0064-y","article-title":"Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries","volume":"8","author":"V Heck","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature Clim Change"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0351419.ref022","first-page":"153","article-title":"The bioenergy and land use trade-off","volume":"4","author":"SN Djomo","year":"2012","journal-title":"Global Change Biology Bioenergy"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0351419.ref023","first-page":"421","article-title":"Bioenergy and carbon neutrality: myth or reality?","volume":"7","author":"T Searchinger","year":"2017","journal-title":"Nature Climate Change"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref024","first-page":"3006","article-title":"Holistic biofuel policies: balancing environmental and socio-economic impacts","volume":"81","author":"R Saravanan","year":"2018","journal-title":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0351419.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5737","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2010.07.044","article-title":"Biofuel production and implications for land use, food production and environment in India","volume":"39","author":"NH Ravindranath","year":"2011","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0351419.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1325","DOI":"10.1093\/ajae\/aat037","article-title":"Economic, Energy Security, and Greenhouse Gas Effects of Biofuels: Implications for Policy","volume":"95","author":"M Khanna","year":"2013","journal-title":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0351419.ref027","first-page":"643","article-title":"Ethanol production in India: sectoral contributions and sustainability challenges","volume":"9","author":"R Sakthivel","year":"2018","journal-title":"Biofuels"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0351419.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1471","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-12-1299-2019","article-title":"MAgPIE 4\u2014a modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems","volume":"12","author":"JP Dietrich","year":"2019","journal-title":"Geoscientific Model Development"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref029","article-title":"Land use trade-offs for India\u2019s ethanol blending target","author":"CK Jha","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environmental Research Letters"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0351419.ref030","first-page":"191","article-title":"Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of resources","volume":"39","author":"H Lotze-Campen","year":"2008","journal-title":"Agricultural Economics"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"331","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002","article-title":"Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways","volume":"42","author":"A Popp","year":"2017","journal-title":"Global Environmental Change"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0351419.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"679","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x","article-title":"Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance","volume":"13","author":"A Bondeau","year":"2006","journal-title":"Global Change Biology"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref033","first-page":"107","article-title":"Improving agricultural yield potentials: a new global assessment for 2050","volume":"24","author":"JP Dietrich","year":"2014","journal-title":"Global Environmental Change"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref034","first-page":"22","article-title":"The impact of agricultural trade policies on global food and nutrition security","volume":"46","author":"M Stevanovic","year":"2017","journal-title":"Global Environmental Change"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0351419.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1111\/gcbb.12226","article-title":"Trade\u2010offs between land and water requirements for large\u2010scale bioenergy production","volume":"8","author":"M Bonsch","year":"2014","journal-title":"GCB Bioenergy"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0351419.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1111\/agec.12092","article-title":"Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison","volume":"45","author":"H Lotze-Campen","year":"2013","journal-title":"Agricultural Economics"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref037","volume-title":"India\u2019s petroleum demand: empirical estimations and projections for the future","author":"P Agarwal","year":"2012"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref038","first-page":"377","article-title":"The environmental impacts of sugarcane ethanol production in India","volume":"118","author":"DY Lee","year":"2020","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref039","article-title":"Biofuels Annual.","author":"A Chandra","year":"2022","journal-title":"GAIN Report IN2022-0056."},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref040","volume-title":"Sugarcane processing and by-products","author":"FAO","year":"2010"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref041","volume-title":"Technical Notes on Ethanol Production from Molasses and Sugarcane","author":"National Sugar Institute (NSI)","year":"2016"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref042","unstructured":"Mini-Brazil Industry Report. Ethanol Production Directly from Cane Juice: Industrial Yields and Technology Pathways. 2022."},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref043","volume-title":"Ethanol production from sugarcane syrup expected to increase","author":"Times of India","year":"2023"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004","article-title":"The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century","volume":"42","author":"BC O\u2019Neill","year":"2017","journal-title":"Global Environmental Change"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0351419.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13229","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-023-40223-4","article-title":"Water-efficient genotypes along with conservation measures significantly reduce the green and blue water footprints in sugarcane (Saccharum spp.)","volume":"13","author":"AS Tayade","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0351419.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1272","DOI":"10.1007\/s12155-016-9763-x","article-title":"Nitrogen use efficiency for sugarcane-biofuel production: what is next?","volume":"9","author":"R Otto","year":"2016","journal-title":"Bioenerg Res"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"141795","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.141795","article-title":"Global direct nitrous oxide emissions from the bioenergy crop sugarcane (Saccharum spp. inter-specific hybrids)","volume":"752","author":"L Yang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0351419.ref048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1041","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2011.02.013","article-title":"An integrated approach to modelling land-use change on continental and global scales","volume":"26","author":"R Schaldach","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environmental Modelling & Software"},{"issue":"8","key":"pone.0351419.ref049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3388","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0907318107","article-title":"Indirect land-use changes can overcome carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil","volume":"107","author":"DM Lapola","year":"2010","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"133501","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2022.133501","article-title":"Is biofuel expansion in developing countries reasonable? A review of empirical evidence of food and land use impacts","volume":"372","author":"P Das","year":"2022","journal-title":"Journal of Cleaner Production"},{"issue":"5867","key":"pone.0351419.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1235","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1152747","article-title":"Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt","volume":"319","author":"J Fargione","year":"2008","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pone.0351419.ref052","first-page":"106962","article-title":"Water and nutrient dynamics in sugarcane cultivation in India","volume":"254","author":"B Felix","year":"2021","journal-title":"Agricultural Water Management"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0351419.ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1007\/s10311-020-01088-5","article-title":"Techniques of lipid extraction from microalgae for biofuel production: a review","volume":"19","author":"SY Lee","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environmental Chemistry Letters"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0351419.ref054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"559","DOI":"10.1890\/1051-0761(1998)008[0559:NPOSWW]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Nonpoint pollution of surface waters with phosphorus and nitrogen","volume":"8","author":"SR Carpenter","year":"1998","journal-title":"Ecological Applications"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0351419","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T17:26:27Z","timestamp":1783531587000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0351419"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Martin","family":"Koller","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]]},"references-count":54,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0351419","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]]}}}