{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]],"date-time":"2026-07-16T18:06:18Z","timestamp":1784225178900,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":65,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]],"date-time":"2026-07-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784160000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Europen Union\u2019s Horizon","award":["101000365"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["101000365"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Climate change impacts oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, precipitation, air and sea surface temperatures leading to altered intermediate host vector distribution, reproduction, and maturation. With temperatures predicted to rise by 1.5\u00b0C or more, understanding the influence of environmental characteristics and climatic conditions on distribution of intermediate host vectors, occurrence and habitat suitability is vital in vector borne diseases and their control policies. Hence, the study focused on the predicted changes in habitat suitability of\n                      <jats:italic>Pseudosuccinea columella<\/jats:italic>\n                      and\n                      <jats:italic>Radix natalensis<\/jats:italic>\n                      in uMgungundlovu district under climate change scenarios.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Freshwater\n                      <jats:italic>Pseudosuccinea columella<\/jats:italic>\n                      and\n                      <jats:italic>Radix natalensis<\/jats:italic>\n                      were collected from seven localities in uMgungundlovu using stratified random cluster sampling. Snail samples were collected at 45 sites. The sites were selected based on local knowledge and accessibility. The ensemble model assessed climate variability, while Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) predicted habitat appropriateness for\n                      <jats:italic>P. columella<\/jats:italic>\n                      and\n                      <jats:italic>R. natalensis<\/jats:italic>\n                      . Maps were created using the MaxEnt model, and the model\u2019s performance was assessed using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Our study indicates that\n                      <jats:italic>P. columella<\/jats:italic>\n                      and\n                      <jats:italic>R. natalensis<\/jats:italic>\n                      under current climatic conditions have suitable habitats in the Mpofana, Impendle, Richmond, and Mkhambathini municipalities within the uMgungundlovu district, but the central and northern regions are considered unsuitable. Furthermore, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, an estimated 22.31% and 22.57% of areas that are presently suitable are expected to become unsuitable for\n                      <jats:italic>P. columella<\/jats:italic>\n                      in uMgungundlovu, with fragmented areas and unsuitable areas becoming suitable for\n                      <jats:italic>R. natalensis<\/jats:italic>\n                      distribution by 2085.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Climate change could influence the distribution of fasciola intermediate host snails, potentially shifting the hotspots of fascioliasis transmission. Future studies should take into account shifts in land use, evolving agricultural techniques, and the impact of human activities to ensure effective management strategies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0351465","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]],"date-time":"2026-07-16T17:38:01Z","timestamp":1784223481000},"page":"e0351465","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Projected climate change effects on suitable habitat for Pseudosuccinea columella and Radix natalensis in uMgungundlovu, South Africa"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8335-5445","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mpumelelo Ian","family":"Hadebe","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tawanda","family":"Manyangadze","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chester","family":"Kalinda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Moses John","family":"Chimbari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0351465.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"168388","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2023.168388","article-title":"Impacts of climate change on the fate of contaminants through extreme weather events","volume":"909","author":"S Bolan","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"pone.0351465.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1178633617732296","DOI":"10.1177\/1178633617732296","article-title":"Climate Change Contribution to the Emergence or Re-Emergence of Parasitic Diseases","volume":"10","author":"EE Short","year":"2017","journal-title":"Infect Dis (Auckl)"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0351465.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetpar.2009.03.024","article-title":"Climate change effects on trematodiases, with emphasis on zoonotic fascioliasis and schistosomiasis","volume":"163","author":"S Mas-Coma","year":"2009","journal-title":"Vet Parasitol"},{"key":"pone.0351465.ref004","volume-title":"WMO greenhouse gas bulletin","author":"M Ak-Bhd","year":"2021"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0351465.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"434","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-024-06514-z","article-title":"Global warming induced spread of the highest human fascioliasis hyperendemic area","volume":"17","author":"PF Cuervo","year":"2024","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"key":"pone.0351465.ref006","article-title":"Schistosomiasis and climate change","author":"GA De Leo","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"pone.0351465.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"381","DOI":"10.1016\/B0-12-176480-X\/00432-0","article-title":"Climate Change and Public Health: Emerging Infectious Diseases","author":"PR Epstein","year":"2004","journal-title":"Encyclopedia of Energy. 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