{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T17:50:03Z","timestamp":1782150603149,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":74,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782086400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000065","name":"National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NS120617"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NS120617"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000065","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Adolescent alcohol consumption is a known risk factor for developing alcohol use disorder (AUD) in adulthood, but individual susceptibility varies widely, contributed to by differences in factors that are not well-understood. Identifying patterns of developmental trajectories in voluntary alcohol consumption behavior during adolescence could provide insight into biological underpinnings of AUD risk. Machine learning (ML) offers powerful pattern recognition capabilities that may help forecast future behavioral trajectories based on early-stage data.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study aimed to evaluate the performance of twelve supervised ML algorithms in predicting developmental trajectories of voluntary alcohol consumption behavior in adolescent mice using sequentially truncated datasets.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Simulated balanced datasets of alcohol consumption in adolescent mice were generated based on previously published biological data. We applied a sequential dataset truncation strategy to train and evaluate ML models on progressively longer spans of behavioral data. Prediction accuracy for trajectory pattern classification was assessed for each truncation point, and goodness-of-fit was modeled using four curve-fitting equations, including locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS), which provided best fit and was selected for downstream comparative analysis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>LOESS-fitted accuracy progression curves enabled quantitative comparison across models. Six ML algorithms\u2014Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Multilayer Perceptron, Linear Discriminant Analysis, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Support Vector Machine\u2014achieved outstanding results, with 98% or better prediction accuracy by experiment end and 90% or better accuracy at midpoint. Four additional algorithms\u2014Stochastic Gradient Descent, Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting Classifier, and Multinomial Naive Bayes\u2014achieved acceptable accuracy values (77\u201395% at midpoint, and 91\u201396% at experiment end). In contrast, two models (Quadratic Discriminant Analysis and Gaussian Process Classifier) performed poorly and displayed declining accuracy trends with more data.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec005\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study demonstrates that certain supervised ML algorithms can accurately predict behavioral outcomes from early-stage data. This approach holds promise for guiding molecular and cellular analyses at time points prior to behavioral phenotype\u2019s fully manifesting, making it possible to identify potential biological drivers that initiate the onset of harmful behavior of alcohol consumption during adolescence development.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0352197","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T17:26:19Z","timestamp":1782149179000},"page":"e0352197","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Evaluating machine learning algorithms at predicting developmental trajectories using sequential dataset truncation of voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescent mice"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"Nathan","family":"Yu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven","family":"Buyske","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Uthman","family":"Qureshi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4339-3951","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lei","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0352197.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"283","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.me.19.020168.001435","article-title":"Growth and physiological development during adolescence","volume":"19","author":"WA Marshall","year":"1968","journal-title":"Annu Rev Med"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0352197.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-8721.00072","article-title":"Neurobehavioral Changes in Adolescence","volume":"9","author":"LP Spear","year":"2000","journal-title":"Current Directions in Psychological Science"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352197.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dr.2007.08.002","article-title":"A social neuroscience perspective on adolescent risk-taking","volume":"28","author":"L Steinberg","year":"2008","journal-title":"Dev Rev"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352197.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pbb.2008.12.013","article-title":"Neurobiology of the development of motivated behaviors in adolescence: a window into a neural systems model","volume":"93","author":"M Ernst","year":"2009","journal-title":"Pharmacol Biochem Behav"},{"key":"pone.0352197.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"162","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuroscience.2012.10.048","article-title":"Stress and the developing adolescent brain","volume":"249","author":"L Eiland","year":"2013","journal-title":"Neuroscience"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352197.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1016\/j.yfrne.2013.10.004","article-title":"Puberty and adolescence as a time of vulnerability to stressors that alter neurobehavioral processes","volume":"35","author":"MK Holder","year":"2014","journal-title":"Front Neuroendocrinol"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0352197.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"272","DOI":"10.12968\/bjon.2021.30.5.272","article-title":"Adolescence: physical changes and neurological development","volume":"30","author":"O Best","year":"2021","journal-title":"Br J Nurs"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0352197.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"745","DOI":"10.1176\/appi.ajp.157.5.745","article-title":"Age at first alcohol use: a risk factor for the development of alcohol disorders","volume":"157","author":"DJ DeWit","year":"2000","journal-title":"Am J Psychiatry"},{"key":"pone.0352197.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"234","DOI":"10.1196\/annals.1308.028","article-title":"Adolescence and the trajectory of alcohol use: basic to clinical studies","volume":"1021","author":"SA Brown","year":"2004","journal-title":"Ann N Y Acad Sci"},{"key":"pone.0352197.ref010","first-page":"143","article-title":"Adolescence. 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