{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T18:10:43Z","timestamp":1790273443701,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790208000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"2025 Sichuan Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Project","award":["No.~SC25T057"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No.~SC25T057"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100013139","name":"Humanities and Social Science Fund of Ministry of Education of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["No.~2024RW067"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No.~2024RW067"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100013139","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"2024 Project of the Research Center for Resource-Based City Development","award":["No.~ZYZX-YB-2408"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No.~ZYZX-YB-2408"]}]},{"name":"2024 Scientific Research Planning Project of the China Society of Commercial Economics","award":["No.~20252138"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No.~20252138"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Large-scale blackouts increasingly arise from heterogeneous causes such as natural disasters, equipment failures and cyber attacks, which force power utilities to decide, before any event is known, both how large a financial reserve to hold and how to convert it into emergency response capability. This paper develops a coordinated optimization of reserve fund scale and emergency resource allocation under multi-type large-scale blackout risk. A unified set of multi-type blackout scenarios is constructed by Monte Carlo sampling and condensed by a tail-aware scenario reduction into a tractable representative set. The restoration technology distinguishes a repair channel, in which crews and materials enter as complementary inputs, from a re-energization channel supplied by mobile equipment, and both channels carry cause-dependent productivity so that the response mechanism differs across disasters, failures and cyber attacks. A two-stage risk-averse stochastic program co-optimizes the first-stage reserve fund and resource pre-positioning together with the second-stage post-event response, embeds a conditional-value-at-risk measure to limit extreme losses, and is solved by a sample-average-approximation scheme with an L-shaped decomposition. Case studies on a stylized 118-node planning instance show that the coordinated risk-averse plan attains an out-of-sample risk-adjusted cost of 352.1 $M against 558.2 $M for a decoupled scheme and 604.7 $M for a risk-neutral scheme, while holding CVaR\n                    <jats:sub>0.95<\/jats:sub>\n                    to 154.3 $M and expected unserved energy to 1478 MWh. The tail-aware reduction keeps the CVaR\n                    <jats:sub>0.95<\/jats:sub>\n                    error at 1.08% of its raw-sample value with 200 retained scenarios, against 11.91% for random subsampling. The cause mix governs the resource portfolio, and the value of lost load is the dominant economic driver of the appropriate reserve scale, with a standardized regression coefficient of 0.66 under joint parameter uncertainty. The study is presented as a methodological proof of concept: the instance is synthetic and network operability is not modelled, so the results characterize the structure of the preparedness trade-off rather than a validated prescription for a specific utility.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0352511","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T17:42:48Z","timestamp":1790271768000},"page":"e0352511","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Coordinated optimization of reserve fund scale and emergency resource allocation for power utilities under multi-type large-scale blackout risks"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-5007-7003","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yongju","family":"Gu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Accounting, Chengdu College of Arts and Sciences","place":["Chengdu, China"]},{"name":"School of Economics and Management, Southwest Petroleum University","place":["Chengdu, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhiwei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, Southwest Petroleum University","place":["Chengdu, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liyun","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Science, Xihua University","place":["Chengdu, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]]},"reference":[{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0352511.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4774","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.2022.3212688","article-title":"Methods for Analysis and Quantification of Power System Resilience","volume":"38","author":"AM Stankovi\u0107","year":"2023","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0352511.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"762","DOI":"10.1109\/JPROC.2022.3175070","article-title":"Massively Digitized Power Grid: Opportunities and Challenges of Use-Inspired AI","volume":"111","author":"L Xie","year":"2023","journal-title":"Proc IEEE"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0352511.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"432","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfineco.2022.12.002","article-title":"Pirates without borders: The propagation of cyberattacks through firms\u2019 supply chains","volume":"147","author":"M Crosignani","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Financ Econ"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4766","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-024-49207-y","article-title":"Real-time outage management in active distribution networks using reinforcement learning over graphs","volume":"15","author":"RA Jacob","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109515","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2023.109515","article-title":"Dependent failure behavior modeling for risk and reliability: A systematic and critical literature review","volume":"239","author":"Z Zeng","year":"2023","journal-title":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety"},{"issue":"15","key":"pone.0352511.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2074","DOI":"10.1111\/mice.13445","article-title":"Multi-hazard probabilistic risk assessment and equitable multi-objective optimization of building retrofit strategies in hurricane-vulnerable communities","volume":"40","author":"AM Braik","year":"2025","journal-title":"Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/wcc.930","article-title":"Fragility Modeling of Power Grid Infrastructure for Addressing Climate Change Risks and Adaptation","volume":"16","author":"G Karagiannakis","year":"2024","journal-title":"WIREs Climate Change"},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0352511.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2023EF003525","article-title":"Component Assessment of the Electric Transmission Grid to Hurricanes","volume":"11","author":"ZD Schumann","year":"2023","journal-title":"Earth\u2019s Future"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref009","article-title":"Catastrophe Risk Management for Electric Power Distribution Systems: An Insurance Approach","author":"S Sun","year":"2023","journal-title":"CSEE J Power Energy Syst"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112185","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2022.112185","article-title":"Enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructures: Statistical analysis of power grid spectral clustering and post-contingency vulnerability metrics","volume":"159","author":"R Rocchetta","year":"2022","journal-title":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109679","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2023.109679","article-title":"A probabilistic framework for post-disaster recovery modeling of buildings and electric power networks in developing countries","volume":"242","author":"EA Opabola","year":"2023","journal-title":"Reliab Eng Syst Saf"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.2024.3394455","article-title":"Distributed Coordinated Restoration of Transmission and Distribution Systems With Repair Crews and Mobile Emergency Generators","volume":"40","author":"H Wu","year":"2025","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"189","DOI":"10.35833\/MPCE.2023.000012","article-title":"Optimal Coordination of Transportable Power Sources and Repair Crews for Service Restoration of Distribution Networks Considering Uncertainty of Traffic Congestion","volume":"12","author":"Z Shi","year":"2024","journal-title":"Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref014","article-title":"Resilient outage recovery of a distribution system: co-optimizing mobile power sources with network structure","volume":"7","author":"C Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"Prot Control Mod Power Syst"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0352511.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4699","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.2023.3309862","article-title":"Dynamic Restoration of Active Distribution Networks by Coordinated Repair Crew Dispatch and Cold Load Pickup","volume":"39","author":"K Pang","year":"2024","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110050","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2024.110050","article-title":"Field teams coordination for earthquake-damaged distribution system energization","volume":"245","author":"I I\u015f\u0131k","year":"2024","journal-title":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1196","DOI":"10.1109\/TIA.2023.3274615","article-title":"Robust Emergency Preparedness Planning for Resilience Enhancement of Energy-Transportation Nexus Against Extreme Rainfalls","volume":"60","author":"Z Hua","year":"2024","journal-title":"IEEE Trans on Ind Applicat"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101321","DOI":"10.1016\/j.segan.2024.101321","article-title":"Optimal two-stage dispatch method of distribution network emergency resources under extreme weather disasters","volume":"38","author":"C Qin","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105039","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2023.105039","article-title":"A cooperative resilience-oriented planning framework for integrated distribution energy systems and multi-carrier energy microgrids considering energy trading","volume":"100","author":"V Sabzpoosh Saravi","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sustainable Cities and Society"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113991","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2023.113991","article-title":"Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations","volume":"189","author":"S Paul","year":"2024","journal-title":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108536","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2022.108536","article-title":"Network hardening and optimal placement of microgrids to improve transmission system resilience: A two-stage linear program","volume":"224","author":"K Jalilpoor","year":"2022","journal-title":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.35833\/MPCE.2022.000467","article-title":"A Two-stage Stochastic Mixed-integer Programming Model for Resilience Enhancement of Active Distribution Networks","volume":"11","author":"H Chen","year":"2023","journal-title":"Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0352511.ref023","first-page":"564","article-title":"Preparedness with a system integrating inventory, capacity, and capability for future pandemics and other disasters","volume":"32","author":"MK Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"Prod Oper Manag"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108886","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpe.2023.108886","article-title":"A food bank supply chain model: Optimizing investments to maximize food assistance","volume":"261","author":"M Reusken","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Prod Econ"},{"issue":"13","key":"pone.0352511.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12163","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-024-06678-y","article-title":"Fiscal resilience over time and its management in the context of multi-risks: an application to the Danube Region","volume":"120","author":"S Hochrainer-Stigler","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat Hazards"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2023.2230324","article-title":"Distributionally robust multi-period humanitarian relief network design integrating facility location, supply inventory and allocation","volume":"62","author":"Y Yin","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Prod Res"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0352511.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2129","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2022.2060770","article-title":"Two-stage risk-averse stochastic programming approach for multi-item single source ordering problem: CVaR minimisation with transportation cost","volume":"61","author":"E Taghizadeh","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int J Prod Res"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111784","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2021.111784","article-title":"Multi-stage stochastic programming for resilient integrated electricity and natural gas distribution systems against typhoon natural disaster attacks","volume":"159","author":"Z Wang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1007\/s42524-022-0240-2","article-title":"Two-stage stochastic programming with robust constraints for the logistics network post-disruption response strategy optimization","volume":"10","author":"X Zhuang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front Eng Manag"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352511.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1795","DOI":"10.1287\/ijoc.2022.1157","article-title":"Risk-Averse Stochastic Programming vs. Adaptive Robust Optimization: A Virtual Power Plant Application","volume":"34","author":"RM Lima","year":"2022","journal-title":"INFORMS Journal on Computing"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"122093","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2023.122093","article-title":"A risk-averse day-ahead bidding strategy of transactive energy sharing microgrids with data-driven chance constraints","volume":"353","author":"Y Wang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Applied Energy"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0352511.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4551","DOI":"10.1109\/TSG.2022.3185310","article-title":"Risk-Based Constraints for the Optimal Operation of an Energy Community","volume":"13","author":"M Dolanyi","year":"2022","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Smart Grid"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0352511.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.23919\/PCMP.2023.000247","article-title":"Real-Time Risk-Averse Dispatch of an Integrated Electricity and Natural Gas System via Conditional Value-at-Risk-Based Lookup-Table Approximate Dynamic Programming","volume":"9","author":"J Zhu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Prot Control Mod Power Syst"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0352511.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"886","DOI":"10.1287\/ijoc.2023.1295","article-title":"Optimized Scenario Reduction: Solving Large-Scale Stochastic Programs with Quality Guarantees","volume":"35","author":"W Zhang","year":"2023","journal-title":"INFORMS Journal on Computing"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2115","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.2023.3273195","article-title":"A Scalable Approach to Large Scale Risk-Averse Distribution Grid Expansion Planning","volume":"39","author":"A Moreira","year":"2024","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"579","DOI":"10.1017\/S0962492924000084","article-title":"Distributionally robust optimization","volume":"34","author":"D Kuhn","year":"2025","journal-title":"Acta Numerica"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2025.05.022","article-title":"Fifty years of power systems optimization","volume":"329","author":"A Kaya","year":"2025","journal-title":"Eur J Oper Res"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0352511.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5000","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.2025.3561890","article-title":"Two-stage stochastic resilience optimization of converter stations under uncertainty","volume":"40","author":"K Wang","year":"2025","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102647","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rineng.2024.102647","article-title":"Securing modern power systems: Implementing comprehensive strategies to enhance resilience and reliability against cyber-attacks","volume":"23","author":"S Abdelkader","year":"2024","journal-title":"Results in Engineering"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0352511.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3232","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.2024.3523220","article-title":"Problem-Driven Scenario Reduction Framework for Power System Stochastic Operation","volume":"40","author":"Y Zhuang","year":"2025","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352511.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1599","DOI":"10.1109\/TSTE.2023.3240184","article-title":"A Risk-Averse Adaptive Stochastic Optimization Method for Transactive Energy Management","volume":"14","author":"Y Zou","year":"2023","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352511.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.2024.3394455","article-title":"Distributed coordinated restoration of transmission and distribution systems","volume":"40","author":"H Wu","year":"2024","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Power Systems"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0352511.ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3245","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.2020.0533","article-title":"Technical note\u2014data-driven sample average approximation with covariate information","volume":"73","author":"R Kannan","year":"2025","journal-title":"Oper Res"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref044","unstructured":"Zimmerman RD, Murillo-S\u00e1nchez CE. MATPOWER: Steady-state operations, planning and analysis tools for power systems. https:\/\/github.com\/MATPOWER\/matpower. 2024."},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110023","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compeleceng.2024.110023","article-title":"Composite reliability evaluation using sequential Monte Carlo simulation","volume":"123","author":"EP dos Santos","year":"2025","journal-title":"Comput Electr Eng"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"240446","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpowsour.2026.240446","article-title":"Critical review on integrated convolutional neural network modeling for whole-life-cycle state of health and remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries adaptive to sharp varying current conditions","volume":"684","author":"S Wang","year":"2026","journal-title":"Journal of Power Sources"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"128026","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2026.128026","article-title":"Improved clustering-multimodal feature decomposition for multi-time scale terminal voltage characterization, edge computing performance evaluation, and retirement prediction of large-capacity batteries in energy storage power stations","volume":"416","author":"L Zhou","year":"2026","journal-title":"Applied Energy"},{"key":"pone.0352511.ref048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139225","DOI":"10.1016\/j.energy.2025.139225","article-title":"Improved harmonic loss \u2013 History gated unit recycling for online state of charge and state of energy co-estimation of lithium-ion batteries for large-scale energy storage stations","volume":"340","author":"S Wang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Energy"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0352511","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T17:42:59Z","timestamp":1790271779000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0352511"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Sadegh","family":"Salehi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Mazandaran","place":["IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]]},"references-count":48,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0352511","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]]}}}