{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T18:03:58Z","timestamp":1784311438543,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784246400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Although pacing strategy is widely recognized as critical for marathon performance, the actual distribution of pacing patterns among recreational runners and their associations with finish time across demographic groups have not been systematically characterized in large samples. This study analyzed split time data (i.e., cumulative elapsed times recorded at intermediate checkpoints including 5K, 10K, 15K, 20K, half-marathon, 25K, 30K, 35K, and 40K) from 78,912 finishers of the Boston Marathon (2015\u20132017), characterizing pacing profiles using the ratio of first-half to second-half completion times and segment-by-segment pace variations across these nine timing points. Cluster analysis was employed to identify distinct pacing patterns, and the relationships between pacing strategy and finish time were examined across age groups, sex, and performance levels using analysis of variance and multiple regression analysis. Four distinct pacing patterns were identified: even-pacing (maintaining consistent pace throughout; 47.9%), mild positive-splitting (controlled late-race slowing; 31.9%), strong positive-splitting (pronounced late-race slowing; 12.2%), and variable-pacing (highly inconsistent pace fluctuations; 8.0%). Even-pacing was consistently associated with the fastest finish times across age and performance strata (\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009&lt;\u20090.001), with mean finish times markedly lower than those observed for strong positive-splitting (217 vs. 276 minutes). Variable-pacing was associated with the highest incidence of \u201chitting the wall\u201d (pace decline &gt;20% in the final segment; 85.4%). High-performance runners (&lt;3:00 finish time) demonstrated significantly higher rates of even-pacing (82.0%) compared to casual participants (19.6%). Age and sex significantly influenced pacing strategy selection (\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009&lt;\u20090.001). These findings may help inform marathon pacing guidance by indicating that age, sex, and performance level should be considered when interpreting pacing patterns and developing individualized race plans.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0352808","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T17:28:06Z","timestamp":1784309286000},"page":"e0352808","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Pacing strategy patterns and performance outcomes in marathon running: A large-scale analysis of split time data"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-8269-8731","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Qizheng","family":"Dong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zaidong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352808.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.2165\/00007256-200838030-00004","article-title":"Describing and understanding pacing strategies during athletic competition","volume":"38","author":"CR Abbiss","year":"2008","journal-title":"Sports Med"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352808.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"725","DOI":"10.1007\/s40279-025-02367-3","article-title":"Comparative Effects of Pacing Strategies on Endurance Performance: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis","volume":"56","author":"DJ Ramos-Campo","year":"2026","journal-title":"Sports Med"},{"issue":"11","key":"pone.0352808.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1189","DOI":"10.1080\/02640414.2014.988742","article-title":"Pacing profiles and pack running at the IAAF World Half Marathon Championships","volume":"33","author":"B Hanley","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Sports Sci"},{"issue":"17","key":"pone.0352808.ref004","article-title":"Pacing strategies in marathons: A systematic review","volume":"10","author":"J Sha","year":"2024","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"pone.0352808.ref005","unstructured":"VanKeersbilck L, Steele J, Nelson WB, Hunter I. Race Smart, Finish Strong: Pacing Secrets for the Boston Marathon. In: International Journal of Exercise Science: Conference Proceedings, 2024. 158."},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0352808.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.1016\/j.psychsport.2007.03.003","article-title":"Hitting the wall in the marathon: phenomenological characteristics and associations with expectancy, gender, and running history","volume":"9","author":"MP Buman","year":"2008","journal-title":"Psychology of Sport and Exercise"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0352808.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"494","DOI":"10.4085\/1062-6050-243-19","article-title":"Devising a Pace-Based Definition for \u201cThe Wall\u201d: An Observational Analysis of Marathoners\u2019 Subjective Experiences of Fatigue","volume":"55","author":"C Doherty","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Athl Train"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0352808.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1000960","article-title":"Metabolic factors limiting performance in marathon runners","volume":"6","author":"BI Rapoport","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352808.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1113\/jphysiol.2007.143834","article-title":"Endurance exercise performance: the physiology of champions","volume":"586","author":"MJ Joyner","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Physiol"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352808.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.3233\/JSA-170205","article-title":"Fast starters and slow finishers: A large-scale data analysis of pacing at the beginning and end of the marathon for recreational runners","volume":"4","author":"B Smyth","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Sports Analytics"},{"key":"pone.0352808.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"44","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gaitpost.2023.11.009","article-title":"Biomechanical changes identified during a marathon race among high-school aged runners","volume":"108","author":"AF DeJong Lempke","year":"2024","journal-title":"Gait Posture"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0352808.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"86","DOI":"10.1080\/15438627.2017.1393752","article-title":"Pacing in age group marathoners in the \u201cNew York City Marathon\u201d","volume":"26","author":"PT Nikolaidis","year":"2018","journal-title":"Research in Sports Medicine"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0352808.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1777","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph16101777","article-title":"Performance and Pacing of Age Groups in Half-Marathon and Marathon","volume":"16","author":"PT Nikolaidis","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0352808.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"392","DOI":"10.1136\/bjsm.2008.050799","article-title":"The anticipatory regulation of performance: the physiological basis for pacing strategies and the development of a perception-based model for exercise performance","volume":"43","author":"R Tucker","year":"2009","journal-title":"Br J Sports Med"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0352808.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"670","DOI":"10.1249\/01.MSS.0000158183.64465.BF","article-title":"Regulation of energy expenditure during prolonged athletic competition","volume":"37","author":"C Foster","year":"2005","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0352808.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"781","DOI":"10.1080\/17461391.2018.1450899","article-title":"The influence of pacing strategy on marathon world records","volume":"18","author":"JJ D\u00edaz","year":"2018","journal-title":"Eur J Sport Sci"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0352808.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"537","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jshs.2020.06.011","article-title":"Pacing profiles and tactical behaviors of elite runners","volume":"10","author":"A Casado","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Sport Health Sci"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352808.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"607","DOI":"10.1249\/MSS.0000000000000432","article-title":"Men are more likely than women to slow in the marathon","volume":"47","author":"RO Deaner","year":"2015","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352808.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.1123\/ijspp.8.3.279","article-title":"Influence of different performance levels on pacing strategy during the Women\u2019s World Championship marathon race","volume":"8","author":"A Renfree","year":"2013","journal-title":"Int J Sports Physiol Perform"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352808.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"487","DOI":"10.1249\/mss.0b013e31802d3aba","article-title":"Impact of weather on marathon-running performance","volume":"39","author":"MR Ely","year":"2007","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0352808.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1449","DOI":"10.1080\/001401300750003899","article-title":"Pacing strategies during a cycling time trial with simulated headwinds and tailwinds","volume":"43","author":"G Atkinson","year":"2000","journal-title":"Ergonomics"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0352808.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"713","DOI":"10.1002\/ejsc.12102","article-title":"The effect of forced even pacing and an opponent on end-spurt behaviour in freestyle pool swimming","volume":"24","author":"JE Neuloh","year":"2024","journal-title":"Eur J Sport Sci"},{"key":"pone.0352808.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"82","DOI":"10.3389\/fphys.2012.00082","article-title":"Fatigue is a Brain-Derived Emotion that Regulates the Exercise Behavior to Ensure the Protection of Whole Body Homeostasis","volume":"3","author":"TD Noakes","year":"2012","journal-title":"Front Physiol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0352808.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1123\/ijspp.2022-0171","article-title":"Competition Between Desired Competitive Result, Tolerable Homeostatic Disturbance, and Psychophysiological Interpretation Determines Pacing Strategy","volume":"18","author":"C Foster","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Sports Physiol Perform"},{"key":"pone.0352808.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.2147\/OAJSM.S141649","article-title":"Effect of age and performance on pacing of marathon runners","volume":"8","author":"PT Nikolaidis","year":"2017","journal-title":"Open Access J Sports Med"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0352808.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"218","DOI":"10.3390\/medicina60020218","article-title":"Running Variability in Marathon-Evaluation of the Pacing Variables","volume":"60","author":"I Cuk","year":"2024","journal-title":"Medicina (Kaunas)"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0352808.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3423","DOI":"10.1519\/JSC.0000000000002159","article-title":"Do fast older runners pace differently from fast younger runners in the \u201cNew York City Marathon\u201d?","volume":"33","author":"PT Nikolaidis","year":"2019","journal-title":"The Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0352808.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0150679","article-title":"Can Pacing Be Regulated by Post-Activation Potentiation? Insights from a Self-Paced 30 km Trial in Half-Marathon Runners","volume":"11","author":"S Del Rosso","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"23","key":"pone.0352808.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7526","DOI":"10.3390\/s24237526","article-title":"Kinematical and Physiological Responses of Overground Running Gait Pattern at Different Intensities","volume":"24","author":"AS Monteiro","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sensors (Basel)"},{"issue":"10","key":"pone.0352808.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0312097","article-title":"Associations between environmental factors and running performance: An observational study of the Berlin Marathon","volume":"19","author":"K Weiss","year":"2024","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"pone.0352808.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1129276","DOI":"10.1155\/tsm2\/1129276","article-title":"Sex Differences in Participation and Performance Trends in Time-Limited Ultramarathon Events","volume":"2024","author":"M Thuany","year":"2024","journal-title":"Transl Sports Med"},{"key":"pone.0352808.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1515\/hukin-2015-0010","article-title":"Damage to Liver and Skeletal Muscles in Marathon Runners During a 100 km Run With Regard to Age and Running Speed","volume":"45","author":"Z Jastrz\u0119bski","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Hum Kinet"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0352808","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T17:28:13Z","timestamp":1784309293000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0352808"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Jeremy P","family":"Loenneke","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0352808","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]]}}}