{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T17:56:07Z","timestamp":1791568567016,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791504000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious killer, with high burden concentrated in China and wider Central Asia. Integrated long-term trend analysis and forecasting for this region are scarce. We aimed to quantify TB burden trends, drivers, inequalities, and 2050 projections across China and wider Central Asia (1990\u20132023).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used Global Burden of Disease 2023 data to estimate age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint, age-period-cohort, decomposition, and Bayesian APC models were applied. Socioeconomic inequalities were assessed via Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and Concentration Index.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>China achieved steep declines in age-standardized mortality (\u221294.2%) and DALYs (\u221292.4%), driven by epidemiological gains offsetting population growth and aging. Central Asia improved moderately but heterogeneously; population growth diluted gains, with Tajikistan showing rising absolute burden. TB burden correlated negatively with SDI; socioeconomic inequality fell markedly, especially for mortality (\u221269.0%), but persisted among low-SDI groups. By 2050, model projections suggest that mortality targets may be achievable under current trends, although uncertainty remains substantial.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>China has undergone a substantial TB epidemiological transition characterized by marked declines in mortality and DALYs. Targeted interventions-latent TB treatment in China, accelerated case finding and cross-border collaboration in Central Asia-and strengthened regional cooperation are critical to advance regional TB elimination.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0358349","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T17:31:56Z","timestamp":1791567116000},"page":"e0358349","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Tuberculosis disease burden trends, drivers, and projections to 2050 in China and the wider Central Asian region, 1990\u20132023"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"Bahetibieke","family":"Tuohetaerbaike","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Xinjiang Medical University","place":["Urumqi, China"],"department":["State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dina","family":"Mulali","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Center, People\u2019s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region","place":["Urumqi, Xinjiang, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-8387-9674","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mehdi","family":"Borhani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Xinjiang Medical University","place":["Urumqi, China"],"department":["State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia"]},{"name":"Xinjiang Medical University","place":["Urumqi, China"],"department":["Joint Key Laboratory for International Cooperation on Major Diseases in Central Asia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kai","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Xinjiang Medical University","place":["Urumqi, Xinjiang, China"],"department":["College of Medical Engineering and Technology"]},{"name":"Institute of Medical Engineering Interdisciplinary Research","place":["Urumqi, Xinjiang, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wenbao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Xinjiang Medical University","place":["Urumqi, China"],"department":["State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia"]},{"name":"The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University","place":["Urumqi, Xinjiang, China"],"department":["Clinical Medicine Research Institute"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hao","family":"Wen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Xinjiang Medical University","place":["Urumqi, China"],"department":["State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia"]},{"name":"Xinjiang Medical University","place":["Urumqi, China"],"department":["Joint Key Laboratory for International Cooperation on Major Diseases in Central Asia"]},{"name":"The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University","place":["Urumqi, China"],"department":["Department of Hepatobiliary and Hydatid Surgery"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0358349.ref001","unstructured":"WHO. 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