{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T18:11:28Z","timestamp":1790273488859,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":96,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790208000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"\n Thunderstorms pose significant threats to life, agriculture, and infrastructure in Bangladesh, particularly in the northeastern regions of Sylhet, Sreemangal, and Mymensingh. This study develops and rigorously evaluates localized thunderstorm frequency forecasting models for these high-risk stations using 40 years (1985\u20132024) of monthly data and thirty six modeling approaches encompassing classical time series (SARIMA\/SARIMAX, ETS\/ETSX), machine learning (ANN\/ANNX, SVR\/SVRX, XGBoost\/XGBoostX), and deep learning (LSTM\/LSTMX) architectures, applied to raw and seasonally adjusted (X-11, STL) data under both univariate and exogenous frameworks incorporating five climatic variables (temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover, rainfall, atmospheric pressure). Correlation analysis identified cloud cover (\n \n \n \n \n \n r<\/mml:mi>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:alternatives>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n = 0.83\u20130.88), atmospheric pressure (\n \n \n \n \n \n r<\/mml:mi>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:alternatives>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n = \u22120.79 to \u22120.85), temperature (\n \n \n \n \n \n r<\/mml:mi>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:alternatives>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n = 0.77\u20130.79), and rainfall (\n \n \n \n \n \n r<\/mml:mi>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:alternatives>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n = 0.74\u20130.78) as dominant meteorological drivers of thunderstorm activity. Seasonal pre-adjustment using STL substantially improved forecast accuracy, with STL-XGBoost achieving the lowest univariate errors (Sylhet: RMSE\u2009=\u20092.53; Sreemangal: 2.09; Mymensingh: 2.08). Inclusion of exogenous variables dramatically enhanced predictive skill with tree-based and kernel methods: STL-XGBoostX with climate predictors proved optimal for Sylhet (MASE\u2009=\u20090.22), while STL-SVRX with climate predictors was optimal for Sreemangal and Mymensingh (MASE\u2009=\u20090.17), representing over 80% improvement compared to univariate benchmarks. Seasonal forecasts (2025\u20132028) project peak monsoon activity reaching 100.5 frequency at Sreemangal and identify April\u2013August as the critical preparedness window for these stations. This study provides the Bangladesh Meteorological Department with a validated, operational framework for station-specific thunderstorm frequency forecasting, demonstrating that explicit seasonal decomposition combined with tree-based ensemble and kernel methods offers robust accuracy for early warning systems. The methodology can be extended to additional stations and integrated with socio-economic data to enhance disaster preparedness and climate adaptation strategies for Bangladesh\u2019s most thunderstorm-vulnerable communities.\n <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0358795","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T17:48:16Z","timestamp":1790272096000},"page":"e0358795","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Station-specific thunderstorm forecasting using climate predictors with seasonal decomposition analysis in Bangladesh\u2019s most vulnerable regions"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"Mohammad Mahboob Hussain","family":"Khan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)","place":["Dhaka, Bangladesh"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-7892-1784","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Amrin Binte","family":"Ahmed","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Jahangirnagar University","place":["Dhaka, Bangladesh"],"department":["Department of Statistics and Data Science"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adisha","family":"Dulmini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Wollongong","place":["Wollongong, NSW, Australia"],"department":["Department of Business and Law"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rawfun","family":"Nahin Kowbi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Jahangirnagar University","place":["Dhaka, Bangladesh"],"department":["Department of Statistics and Data Science"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dulsaba","family":"Azmain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Business and Economics, North South University","place":["Dhaka, Bangladesh"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Muhammad Abu","family":"Sufian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Jahangirnagar University","place":["Dhaka, Bangladesh"],"department":["Department of Statistics and Data Science"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Md. Mahin Uddin","family":"Qureshi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Jahangirnagar University","place":["Dhaka, Bangladesh"],"department":["Department of Statistics and Data Science"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mustafizur","family":"Rahman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"WTO Branch-3, Ministry of Commerce","place":["Dhaka, Bangladesh"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0751-7104","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rumana","family":"Rois","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Jahangirnagar University","place":["Dhaka, Bangladesh"],"department":["Department of Statistics and Data Science"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0358795.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"315","DOI":"10.1016\/S0074-6142(10)09914-6","article-title":"Cumulonimbus Clouds and Severe Convective Storms","volume":"99","author":"WR Cotton","year":"2011","journal-title":"International Geophysics"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0358795.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1080\/27658511.2025.2464373","article-title":"Knowledge, attitude, and practices towards lightning among vulnerable group: A case study on agri farmers and fishermen","volume":"11","author":"MM Rahman","year":"2025","journal-title":"Sustain Environ"},{"issue":"12","key":"pone.0358795.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.3390\/cli9120167","article-title":"Assessing farmers perceived typologies concerning environmental issues and climate change for sustainable adaptation strategies in Bangladesh","volume":"9","author":"ARMT Islam","year":"2021","journal-title":"Climate"},{"key":"pone.0358795.ref004","volume-title":"Global fever: How to treat climate change","author":"WH Calvin","year":"2008"},{"key":"pone.0358795.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3329\/bmrcb.v45i1.41801","article-title":"Thunderstorms and lightning in Bangladesh","volume":"45","author":"SMM Rahman","year":"2019","journal-title":"Bangladesh Med Res Counc Bull"},{"key":"pone.0358795.ref006","year":"2024"},{"key":"pone.0358795.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4651","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.4663","article-title":"Variability and trends of annual and seasonal thunderstorm frequency over Bangladesh","volume":"36","author":"TR Saha","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int J Climatol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0358795.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.3329\/pa.v27i1.27535","article-title":"Studies of thunderstorms and lightning on human health, agriculture and fisheries in Mymensingh and Jamalpur district of Bangladesh","volume":"27","author":"M Khatun","year":"2016","journal-title":"Progress Agric"},{"key":"pone.0358795.ref009","article-title":"Temperature extremes projections over Bangladesh from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble","author":"MY Akter","year":"2024","journal-title":"Theor Appl Climatol"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0358795.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0300070","article-title":"Are hotspots and frequencies of heat waves changing over time? 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