{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T18:07:57Z","timestamp":1790273277315,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790208000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS One"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Flooding remains one of the most severe and recurrent natural hazards in sub-Saharan Africa, posing persistent threats to rural livelihoods, infrastructure, and environmental stability. In Malawi, the Lower Shire River Valley, particularly Nsanje district, is highly vulnerable to recurrent flooding due to climatic variability, land-use change, and geomorphological characteristics. Despite the growing availability of geospatial data, localized flood vulnerability assessments remain limited, constraining effective disaster preparedness and land-use planning. This study applied a Geographic Information System-based multi-criteria analysis using the Analytical Hierarchy Process to identify flood-prone areas in Nsanje district, Malawi. Five key spatial parameters were integrated: land cover, precipitation, slope, proximity to water bodies, and elevation. The datasets included Sentinel-2 imagery, CHIRPS precipitation records, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation data, and official hydrological data. The weighted overlay analysis revealed that land cover and precipitation were the dominant determinants of flood susceptibility, accounting for 59.4 percent and 21.0 percent of the total influence, respectively. The resulting flood susceptibility map showed a pronounced north\u2013south gradient in vulnerability, with the southern corridor exhibiting the highest exposure to flooding. Traditional Authority Nyachikadza emerged as the most critically affected area, with more than 1,500 residents situated in high-risk zones, whereas Traditional Authorities Malemia and Tengani displayed moderate levels of vulnerability. The findings indicate that the combined effects of land-use practices, rainfall intensity, and terrain configuration strongly influence flood susceptibility in Nsanje. This study provides a cost-effective and replicable framework for flood risk assessment in data-scarce environments. By leveraging freely available satellite data and open-source geospatial tools, it offers actionable intelligence to support disaster management, spatial planning, and community resilience in flood-prone areas. This approach contributes to the broader sustainability agenda by informing climate adaptation strategies that are aligned with national and global commitments to disaster risk reduction and Sustainable Development Goals. The five-factor model used here should be read as a first-order, operationally feasible approximation of flood susceptibility; geology, soil permeability, and drainage density were not incorporated and are discussed as an explicit limitation, and the precipitation criterion reflects cumulative seasonal totals rather than storm-scale rainfall intensity.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0358998","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T17:30:59Z","timestamp":1790271059000},"page":"e0358998","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Leveraging GIS-based multi-criteria analysis for flood-prone area detection in Nsanje District, Malawi"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-3959-1551","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Charles","family":"Bakolo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Ministry of Lands, City Centre","place":["Lilongwe, Malawi"],"department":["Department of Surveys"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-1073-2799","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lusungu","family":"Ngwira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Innex Consultants","place":["Blantyre, Malawi"],"department":["Department of Research"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kennedy","family":"Nazombe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources","place":["Lilongwe, Malawi"],"department":["Department of Land and Water Resources, Faculty of Life Sciences and Natural Resources"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Veronica Immaculate","family":"Bukani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Catholic University of Malawi","place":["Nguludi, Malawi"],"department":["Department of Geography and Environmental Studies"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ken","family":"Chapita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Malawi University of Science and Technology","place":["Limbe, Malawi"],"department":["Ndata School of Climate and Earth Sciences"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Devie","family":"Chilonga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources","place":["Lilongwe, Malawi"],"department":["Department of Land and Water Resources, Faculty of Life Sciences and Natural Resources"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-8378-2486","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Harineck Mayamiko","family":"Tholo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Malawi University of Science and Technology","place":["Limbe, Malawi"],"department":["Ndata School of Climate and Earth Sciences"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chikondi","family":"Chisenga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Malawi University of Science and Technology","place":["Limbe, Malawi"],"department":["Ndata School of Climate and Earth Sciences"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jabulani","family":"Nyengere","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Malawi University of Science and Technology","place":["Limbe, Malawi"],"department":["Ndata School of Climate and Earth Sciences"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0358998.ref001","volume-title":"Malawi Economic Monitor: Navigating the Storm","author":"World Bank","year":"2022"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0358998.ref002","first-page":"1177","article-title":"Evaluation of spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in Malawi","volume":"56","author":"C Ngongondo","year":"2011","journal-title":"Hydrol Sci J"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0358998.ref003","first-page":"615","article-title":"Land use change and impacts on hydrology in the Shire River Basin, Malawi","volume":"11","author":"LG Palamuleni","year":"2011","journal-title":"Reg Environ Change"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref004","volume-title":"Flood risk assessment in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi","author":"C Macdonald","year":"2015"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref005","volume-title":"Post Disaster Needs Assessment Report - Tropical Cyclone Idai","author":"Department of Disaster Management Affairs","year":"2019"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100276","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rsase.2019.100276","article-title":"Modelling land use and land cover dynamics of Dedza district of Malawi using hybrid Cellular Automata and Markov model","volume":"17","author":"MG Munthali","year":"2020","journal-title":"Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1124","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2017.10.114","article-title":"Flood susceptibility assessment in Hengfeng area coupling adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with genetic algorithm and differential evolution","volume":"621","author":"H Hong","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref008","unstructured":"World Bank Climate Knowledge Portal. Malawi Climate Data: Historical. 2021. Available from: https:\/\/climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org\/"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref009","volume-title":"Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) Report: Tropical Cyclone Idai","author":"Government of Malawi","year":"2019"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2017.01.006","article-title":"Flood inundation modelling: A review of methods, recent advances and uncertainty analysis","volume":"90","author":"J Teng","year":"2017","journal-title":"Environ Model Softw"},{"issue":"4","key":"pone.0358998.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"834","DOI":"10.1111\/1752-1688.12626","article-title":"Intercomparison of Satellite Remote Sensing\u2010Based Flood Inundation Mapping Techniques","volume":"54","author":"D Munasinghe","year":"2018","journal-title":"J American Water Resour Assoc"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-540-74757-4","volume-title":"Multicriteria Decision Analysis in Geographic Information Science","author":"J Malczewski","year":"2015"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0358998.ref013","first-page":"156","article-title":"Coastal vulnerability assessment using geospatial technologies and AHP-TOPSIS model: A case study of Bangladesh coast","volume":"196","author":"MA Islam","year":"2024","journal-title":"Environ Monit Assess"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"555","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2015.08.055","article-title":"Assessment of flood hazard areas at a regional scale using an index-based approach and Analytical Hierarchy Process: Application in Rhodope-Evros region, Greece","volume":"538","author":"N Kazakis","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0358998.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"947","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-016-2357-2","article-title":"A GIS-based flood susceptibility assessment and its mapping in Iran: a comparison between frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence bivariate statistical models with multi-criteria decision-making technique","volume":"83","author":"K Khosravi","year":"2016","journal-title":"Nat Hazards"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"332","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2014.03.008","article-title":"Flood susceptibility mapping using a novel ensemble weights-of-evidence and support vector machine models in GIS","volume":"512","author":"MS Tehrany","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Hydrol"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref017","first-page":"102118","article-title":"GIS-based multi-criteria analysis for sustainable urban green space development","volume":"69","author":"E Gelan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sustain Cities Soc"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0358998.ref018","first-page":"1021","article-title":"Application of statistical index and index-overlay methods to assess flood risk at the county scale in northeast China","volume":"99","author":"Q Wang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat Hazards"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref019","article-title":"Urban flood susceptibility mapping using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis under climate variability","author":"Author(s)","year":"2023","journal-title":"Urban Clim"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref020","article-title":"Flood susceptibility assessment using hybrid GIS\u2013AHP modeling","volume":"13","author":"Author(s)","year":"2025","journal-title":"Front Environ Sci"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0358998.ref021","article-title":"Flood susceptibility mapping using GIS and AHP in developing countries","volume":"15","author":"Author(s)","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLOS ONE"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0358998.ref022","first-page":"336","article-title":"Integrating remote sensing and GIS\u2013AHP for regional flood susceptibility assessment","volume":"16","author":"Author(s)","year":"2024","journal-title":"Remote Sens"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Author(s). Sustainable flood risk mapping integrating remote sensing and MCDA techniques. J Clean Prod. 2024;142289. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jclepro.2024.142289","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2024.142289"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref024","article-title":"GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis for flood susceptibility mapping in data-scarce environments","volume":"16","author":"Author(s)","year":"2025","journal-title":"Geosci Front"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Author(s). Comparative evaluation of GIS\u2013MCDA and machine learning approaches for flood hazard mapping. J Environ Manage. 2025;126009. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jenvman.2025.126009","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2025.126009"},{"issue":"16","key":"pone.0358998.ref026","first-page":"4050","article-title":"Advances in GIS-based flood susceptibility modeling using analytical hierarchy process","volume":"14","author":"Author(s)","year":"2022","journal-title":"Remote Sens"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0358998.ref027","first-page":"3126","article-title":"Multi-criteria flood hazard mapping for climate resilience planning","volume":"13","author":"Author(s)","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref028","first-page":"93","article-title":"GIS-based flood susceptibility modeling integrating environmental indicators","volume":"5","author":"Author(s)","year":"2025","journal-title":"Discover Water"},{"issue":"04","key":"pone.0358998.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"445","DOI":"10.1142\/S0218488506004114","article-title":"Consistency in the analytic hierarchy process: A new approach","volume":"14","author":"JA Alonso","year":"2006","journal-title":"Int J Unc Fuzz Knowl Based Syst"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.18356\/9789211068092","volume-title":"The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2023","author":"United Nations","year":"2023"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0358998.ref031","first-page":"45","article-title":"Population growth and development in Malawi","volume":"15","author":"AM Mpesi","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Afr Stud Dev"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref032","article-title":"Flood hazard mapping in Malawi","volume":"45","author":"MJ Gondwe","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Disaster Risk Reduct"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref033","volume-title":"Nsanje District Development Plan 2024-2029","author":"Nsanje District Council","year":"2024"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0358998.ref034","first-page":"286","article-title":"Climate variability and change in Malawi","volume":"11","author":"F Maguza-Tembo","year":"2017","journal-title":"Afr J Environ Sci Technol"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref035","volume-title":"Malawi Climate Change and Environment Support Project","author":"United Nations Partnership for Environment and Development","year":"2020"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref036","volume-title":"Guidelines for soil description","author":"Food and Agriculture Organization","year":"2006","edition":"4"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"69","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2013.09.034","article-title":"Spatial prediction of flood susceptible areas using rule based decision tree (DT) and a novel ensemble bivariate and multivariate statistical models in GIS","volume":"504","author":"MS Tehrany","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Hydrol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0358998.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"42","DOI":"10.1080\/10106049.2015.1041559","article-title":"Flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence models in the Golastan Province, Iran","volume":"31","author":"O Rahmati","year":"2015","journal-title":"Geocarto International"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0358998.ref039","first-page":"1","article-title":"Flood susceptible mapping and risk area delineation using logistic regression, GIS and remote sensing","volume":"9","author":"B Pradhan","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Spat Hydrol"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"940","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.12.217","article-title":"Assessment of urban flood susceptibility using semi-supervised machine learning model","volume":"659","author":"G Zhao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"issue":"6","key":"pone.0358998.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"360","DOI":"10.3390\/w9060360","article-title":"Application of GIS-Interval Rough AHP Methodology for Flood Hazard Mapping in Urban Areas","volume":"9","author":"L Gigovi\u0107","year":"2017","journal-title":"Water"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0358998.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/s13201-018-0710-1","article-title":"Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model","volume":"8","author":"S Samanta","year":"2018","journal-title":"Appl Water Sci"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref043","volume-title":"The Analytic Hierarchy Process","author":"TL Saaty","year":"1980"},{"issue":"3","key":"pone.0358998.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1016\/S1364-8152(00)00082-7","article-title":"JavaAHP: A web-based decision analysis tool for natural resource and environmental management","volume":"16","author":"X Zhu","year":"2001","journal-title":"Environ Model Softw"},{"issue":"5","key":"pone.0358998.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3507","DOI":"10.1007\/s10708-021-10445-y","article-title":"Comparison of GIS-based AHP and fuzzy AHP methods for hospital site selection: a case study for Prayagraj City, India","volume":"87","author":"AK Tripathi","year":"2022","journal-title":"GeoJournal"},{"issue":"7","key":"pone.0358998.ref046","article-title":"Multiobjective particle swarm optimization for parameter estimation in hydrology","volume":"42","author":"MK Gill","year":"2006","journal-title":"Water Resources Research"},{"issue":"2","key":"pone.0358998.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.1080\/136588100240903","article-title":"Application of fuzzy measures in multi-criteria evaluation in GIS","volume":"14","author":"H Jiang","year":"2000","journal-title":"Int J Geogr Inf Sci"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0358998.ref048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1016\/j.progress.2003.09.002","article-title":"GIS-based land-use suitability analysis: A critical overview","volume":"62","author":"J Malczewski","year":"2004","journal-title":"Prog Plan"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2015.05.013","article-title":"Multi-criteria decision analysis for land suitability mapping in a rural area of Southern Italy","volume":"48","author":"G Romano","year":"2015","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"issue":"1","key":"pone.0358998.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.1186\/s40068-024-00377-0","article-title":"Identification of optimal locations for green space initiatives through GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and the analytical hierarchy process","volume":"13","author":"C Bakolo","year":"2024","journal-title":"Environ Syst Res"},{"key":"pone.0358998.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.18356\/9789210015059","volume-title":"Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2022","author":"United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction","year":"2022"}],"container-title":["PLOS One"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0358998","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T17:31:13Z","timestamp":1790271073000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0358998"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Prem Chandra","family":"Pandey","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Shiv Nadar University - Campus Delhi NCR: Shiv Nadar University","place":["INDIA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]]},"references-count":51,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0358998","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]]}}}