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Larval source management (LSM) includes larvicide application to aquatic habitat and an array of alternative forms of environmental efforts. An individual-based transmission model for <jats:italic><jats:italic>falciparum<\/jats:italic><\/jats:italic> malaria is used to demonstrate the theoretical benefit of suppressing malaria adult mosquito vector densities through LSM. The model simulates results of epidemiological trials from Western Kenya (a hilly area with papyrus swamps adjacent to human settlements and moderate to high perennial malaria transmission) and C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire (an area with Sudanese climate, reducing vegetation cover and high transmission) that applied larvicide alongside ITNs, and investigates whether estimated changes in adult density can be used to project changes in human malaria. In the Western Kenya setting generalised linear models estimate 82% (90% credible intervals: 64% \u2013 92%) and 88% (79% \u2013 94%) reductions in the proportion of adult <jats:italic><jats:italic>Anopheles funestus<\/jats:italic><\/jats:italic> and <jats:italic><jats:italic>Anopheles gambiae<\/jats:italic><\/jats:italic> complex mosquitoes respectively as measured by CDC light traps. In C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, an 82% (56% \u2013 93%) reduction of the dominant <jats:italic><jats:italic>An. gambiae<\/jats:italic><\/jats:italic> vector was estimated using standard window trap and pyrethrum spray catch. Both studies had variable village-level impacts. The transmission dynamics model predicted that these entomological impacts would result in a reduction in malaria prevalence in children of 6-months to 10-years of age of 48 \u2013 72% in Kenya, and a 11 \u2013 78% reduction in all-age clinical incidence across villages in C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, which are broadly consistent with the empirically observed outcomes. High heterogeneity between villages within the same study indicate that the relative or absolute reductions in mosquito adult density observed in these trials cannot be simply extrapolated to other regions. The LSM strategy adopted, unit area covered, and multiple environmental covariates all contribute to differences in indicators that could be used to assess entomological impacts and the corresponding epidemiological outcomes. This important malaria control tool was impactful across all sites examined, though further work is needed to understand how best to use this tool in the fight against malaria.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1013287","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]],"date-time":"2025-07-28T17:53:46Z","timestamp":1753725226000},"page":"e1013287","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.ppat.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Heterogeneous impacts for malaria control from larviciding across villages and considerations for monitoring and evaluation"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8317-7992","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ellie","family":"Sherrard-Smith","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ulrike","family":"Fillinger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jean-Philippe B.","family":"Tia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Winskill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Benjamin G.","family":"Koudou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emile S. 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