{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T19:26:49Z","timestamp":1775676409508,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,21]],"date-time":"2025-05-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1747785600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000038","name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["RGPIN-2018-05038"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RGPIN-2018-05038"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000038","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosclimate.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLOS Clim"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Anthropogenic climate change has uneven impacts across the globe and throughout the year. Such unevenness poses a major challenge for human adaptation, especially for agricultural and other managed systems. Estimating effects beyond one region is challenging, however, because differences between regions make it difficult to know what seasonal periods of climate to compare. Both local climate and the planting decisions of a region affect the relevant periods for estimating changes in climate. Here, we use recent phenological models with a dataset of mean phenology for over 500 cultivars (varieties) to estimate climatic changes in growing regions across the globe for a major perennial crop that has been highly affected by climate change: winegrapes. We examine a suite of grower-relevant metrics, including temperatures during budburst, throughout the growing season and temperatures and precipitation surrounding harvest. We find that climate change has impacted all regions, especially for heat metrics across the full growing season (GDD, maximum temperature and days above 35\u00b0C). By far the largest shifts, however, are in European regions, where the number of hot days (&gt;35\u00b0C) and maximum growing season temperatures are several standard deviations higher than before significant anthropogenic climate change. Including variety diversity in our estimates impacted only metrics at the start and end of the season, appearing most important for harvest-related climate metrics, and then only in \u2018Old World\u2019 regions, where most variety diversity is planted. Climate change impacts have thus been highly uneven across the world\u2019s winegrowing regions and the impacts are variable across the growing season. Navigating how best to adapt the global winegrowing industry to climate change will require addressing these spatial and temporal complexities.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pclm.0000539","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,21]],"date-time":"2025-05-21T20:25:17Z","timestamp":1747859117000},"page":"e0000539","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pclm.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Uneven impacts of climate change around the world and across the annual cycle of winegrapes"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7653-893X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"E. M.","family":"Wolkovich","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Benjamin I.","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6941-9844","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"I\u00f1aki","family":"Garc\u00eda de Cort\u00e1zar-Atauri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7746-4098","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Victor","family":"Van der Meersch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9968-8228","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Thierry","family":"Lacombe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"C\u00e9cile","family":"Marchal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8570-9312","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ignacio","family":"Morales-Castilla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,21]]},"reference":[{"issue":"6042","key":"pclm.0000539.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"616","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1204531","article-title":"Climate trends and global crop production since 1980","volume":"333","author":"DB Lobell","year":"2011","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref002","volume-title":"Climate change 2021: the physical science basis","author":"J Canadell","year":"2021"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref003","volume-title":"Food security and food production systems","author":"JR Porter","year":"2014"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agrformet.2003.06.001","article-title":"A multicriteria climatic classification system for grape-growing regions worldwide","volume":"124","author":"J Tonietto","year":"2004","journal-title":"Agricult Forest Meteorol"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-78341-3_11","article-title":"Life cycles: environmental influences and adaptations","volume-title":"Plant physiological ecology","author":"H Lambers","year":"2008"},{"issue":"17","key":"pclm.0000539.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6907","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1210127110","article-title":"Climate change, wine, and conservation","volume":"110","author":"L Hannah","year":"2013","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"6","key":"pclm.0000539.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2864","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1906731117","article-title":"Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses","volume":"117","author":"I Morales-Castilla","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref008","first-page":"1","article-title":"Climate change impacts and adaptations of wine production","author":"C van Leeuwen","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat Rev Earth Environ"},{"issue":"1","key":"pclm.0000539.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.4325","article-title":"Climatic suitability of Portuguese grapevine varieties and climate change adaptation","volume":"36","author":"H Fraga","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int J Climatol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pclm.0000539.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"927","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.6248","article-title":"Bioclimatic conditions of the Portuguese wine denominations of origin under changing climates","volume":"40","author":"M Santos","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Climatol"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/s41207-021-00246-7","article-title":"Assessing climate change impacts on crops by adopting a set of crop performance indicators","volume":"6","author":"M Moriondo","year":"2021","journal-title":"Euro-Mediterr J Environ Integr"},{"issue":"3","key":"pclm.0000539.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"808","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.16493","article-title":"Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming","volume":"29","author":"G Sgubin","year":"2023","journal-title":"Glob Chang Biol"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref013","unstructured":"Croft J. 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Gpcc full data monthly product version 2018 at 0.25 degree: monthly land-surface precipitation from rain-gauges built on gts-based and historical data. 2018."},{"issue":"764","key":"pclm.0000539.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4014","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.4803","article-title":"The ERA5 global reanalysis from 1940 to 2022","volume":"150","author":"C Soci","year":"2024","journal-title":"Quart J Roy Meteoro Soc"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref029","first-page":"235","article-title":"Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change","volume-title":"Climate change 2007: the physical science basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"K Trenberth","year":"2007"},{"issue":"7393","key":"pclm.0000539.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"228","DOI":"10.1038\/nature10946","article-title":"Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability","volume":"484","author":"BBB Booth","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1537","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-016-3158-8","article-title":"Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe","volume":"48","author":"B Dong","year":"2016","journal-title":"Clim Dyn"},{"issue":"9","key":"pclm.0000539.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"094007","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aa7909","article-title":"Amplified summer warming in Europe\u2013West Asia and Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s","volume":"12","author":"X Hong","year":"2017","journal-title":"Environ Res Lett"},{"issue":"1","key":"pclm.0000539.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.5194\/wcd-5-109-2024","article-title":"European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years","volume":"5","author":"M Oltmanns","year":"2024","journal-title":"Weather Clim Dynam"},{"issue":"3","key":"pclm.0000539.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.20870\/oeno-one.2009.43.3.798","article-title":"Vine water status is a key factor in grape ripening and vintage quality for red Bordeaux wine. 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King","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environ Res Lett"},{"issue":"1","key":"pclm.0000539.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2302480120","article-title":"Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models","volume":"121","author":"IR Simpson","year":"2024","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref039","article-title":"Clusters of grapevine genes for a burning world","author":"A Coupel-Ledru","year":"2024","journal-title":"New Phytol"},{"issue":"11","key":"pclm.0000539.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3774","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13382","article-title":"Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe","volume":"22","author":"H Fraga","year":"2016","journal-title":"Glob Chang 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Change"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1094633","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2022.1094633","article-title":"Impact of climate change on grape berry ripening: an assessment of adaptation strategies for the Australian vineyard","volume":"13","author":"SY Rogiers","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Plant Sci"},{"key":"pclm.0000539.ref049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"579192","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2020.579192","article-title":"Mitigating heat wave and exposure damage to \u201cCabernet Sauvignon\u201d wine grape with partial shading under two irrigation amounts","volume":"11","author":"J Mart\u00ednez-L\u00fcscher","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Plant Sci"},{"issue":"3","key":"pclm.0000539.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"547","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.jnatprod.2c00028","article-title":"Natural product phenolic diglycosides created from wildfires, defining their impact on california and oregon grapes and 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