{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T14:07:15Z","timestamp":1740146835630,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,8]],"date-time":"2022-03-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1646697600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["309617\/2020-0"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["309617\/2020-0"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["305291\/2018-1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["305291\/2018-1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100006181","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BOL0723\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BOL0723\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100006181","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e Tecnologia","award":["UIDP\/50025\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDP\/50025\/2020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>We report strong evidence of the importance of contact hubs (or superspreaders) in mitigating the current COVID-19 pandemic. Contact hubs have a much larger number of contacts than the average in the population, and play a key role on the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. By using an age-structures compartmental SEIAHRV (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected symptomatic, Asymptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered, Vaccinated) model, calibrated from available demographic and COVID-19 incidence, and considering separately those individuals with a much greater number of contacts than the average in the population, we show that carefully choosing who will compose the first group to be vaccinated can impact positively the total death toll and the demand for health services. This is even more relevant in countries with a lack of basic resources for proper vaccination and a significant reduction in social isolation. In order to demonstrate our approach we show the effect of hypothetical vaccination scenarios in two countries of very different scales and mitigation policies, Brazil and Portugal.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0262433","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,8]],"date-time":"2022-03-08T18:35:23Z","timestamp":1646764523000},"page":"e0262433","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Optimization of COVID-19 vaccination and the role of individuals with a high number of contacts: A model based approach"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7865-4085","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tarc\u00edsio M.","family":"Rocha Filho","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jos\u00e9 F. F.","family":"Mendes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5598-2679","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Thiago B.","family":"Murari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Alo\u00edsio S.","family":"Nascimento Filho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Ant\u00f4nio J. A.","family":"Cordeiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Walter M.","family":"Ramalho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"F\u00falvio A.","family":"Scorza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Ant\u00f4nio-Carlos G.","family":"Almeida","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Marcelo A.","family":"Moret","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"pone.0262433.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"727","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2001017","article-title":"A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019","volume":"382","author":"N Zhu","year":"2020","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref002","unstructured":"World Health Organization. n.d. Novel Coronavirus (2019-NCoV) Situation Reports. https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/diseases\/novel-coronavirus-2019\/situation-reports"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref003","unstructured":"COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at John Hopkins University (JHU). https:\/\/gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/opsdashboard\/index.html#\/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6. Accessed August, 17 2021."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1111\/jebm.12376","article-title":"Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV","volume":"13","author":"T Zhou","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Evidence Based Medicine"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e758","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0000758","article-title":"Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic","volume":"2","author":"C Fraser","year":"2007","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e32","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2020.03.027","article-title":"Herd immunity\u2014estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries","volume":"80","author":"KO Kwok","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Infection"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1038\/s41577-020-00451-5","article-title":"COVID-19 herd immunity: where are we?","volume":"20","author":"A Fontanet","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat. Rev. Immunol"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"669","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30243-7","article-title":"Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: A model-based analysis","volume":"20","author":"R Verity","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Infec. Dis"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"323","DOI":"10.1093\/ectj\/utaa025","article-title":"Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: the case of Sweden","volume":"23","author":"S-W Cho","year":"2020","journal-title":"Economet. J"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20468","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2010068117","article-title":"Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia","volume":"117","author":"A Sheridan","year":"2020","journal-title":"P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref011","article-title":"The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)\u2014China","volume":"Vol. 2","author":"The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team","year":"2020","journal-title":"CCDC Weekly"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref012","article-title":"Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012\/01 in England","author":"NG Davies","year":"2020","journal-title":"medR\u03c7iv"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref013","article-title":"Emergence and rapid spread of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage with multiple spike mutations in South Africa","author":"H Tegally","year":"2020","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coi.2021.07.003","article-title":"COVID-19 vaccines","volume":"71","author":"D. Ndwandwe","year":"2021","journal-title":"Curr. Opin. Immunol"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref015","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Vaccine access and allocation. https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/q-a-detail\/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccine-access-and-allocation. Accessed August, 17 2021."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref016","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. How CDC Is Making COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations. https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/vaccines\/recommendations-process.html. Accessed August, 17 2021."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref017","unstructured":"European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Overview of COVID-19 vaccination strategies and vaccine deployment plans in the EU\/EEA and the UK. https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications-data\/overview-current-eu-eea-uk-plans-covid-19-vaccines. Technical report. June, 14 2021."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref018","unstructured":"Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade do Brasil. Plano Nacional de operacionaliza\u00e7\u00e3o da vacina\u00e7\u00e3o contra a COVID-19. https:\/\/www.gov.br\/saude\/pt-br\/coronavirus\/publicacoes-tecnicas\/guias-e-planos\/plano-nacional-de-vacinacao-covid-19\/view. Accessed August, 17 2021."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref019","first-page":"1","article-title":"Who should get it first? Public preferences for distributing a COVID-19 vaccine","volume":"57","author":"J Luyten","year":"2020","journal-title":"Covid. Econ"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5393","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2020.06.056","article-title":"Logistical challenges for potential SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and a call to research institutions, developers and manufacturers","volume":"38","author":"UH Kartoglu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"516","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2798-3","article-title":"SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in development","volume":"586","author":"F Krammer","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"810","DOI":"10.1038\/s41563-020-0746-0","article-title":"Next-generation vaccine platforms for COVID-19","volume":"19","author":"D van Riel","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat. Mat"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"416","DOI":"10.3390\/vaccines9050416","article-title":"COVID-19 Vaccination Intent and Willingness to Pay in Bangladesh: A Cross-Sectional Study","volume":"9","author":"R Kabir","year":"2021","journal-title":"Vaccines"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref024","first-page":"864","volume":"9","author":"I Mahmud","year":"2021","journal-title":"The Health Belief Model Predicts Intention to Receive the COVID-19 Vaccine in Saudi Arabia: Results from a Cross-Sectional SurveyVaccines"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3200","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevLett.86.3200","article-title":"Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks","volume":"86","author":"R Pastor-Satorras","year":"2001","journal-title":"Phys. Rev. Lett"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"036104","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevE.65.036104","article-title":"Immunization of complex networks","volume":"65","author":"R Pastor-Satorras","year":"2002","journal-title":"Phys. Rev. E"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"055103","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevE.65.055103","article-title":"Halting viruses in scale-free networks","volume":"65","author":"Z Dezs\u00f6","year":"2002","journal-title":"Phys. Rev. E"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1079","DOI":"10.1080\/00018730110112519","article-title":"Evolution of Networks","volume":"51","author":"SN Dorogovtsev","year":"2001","journal-title":"Advances in Physics"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1275","DOI":"10.1103\/RevModPhys.80.1275","article-title":"Critical phenomena in complex networks","volume":"80","author":"SN Dorogovtsev","year":"2008","journal-title":"Rev. Mod. Phys"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"128702","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevLett.109.128702","article-title":"Localization and Spreading of Diseases in Complex Networks","volume":"109","author":"AV Goltsev","year":"2012","journal-title":"Phys. Rev. Lett"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref031","unstructured":"DIre\u00e7\u00e3o Geral de Sa\u00fade de Portugal. https:\/\/covid19.min-saude.pt. Accessed August, 17 2021."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref032","unstructured":"New York Times. racking Coronavirus Vaccinations Around the World. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2021\/world\/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html. Accessed August, 17 2021."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"538","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm9020538","article-title":"Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data","volume":"9","author":"NM Linton","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Clin. Med"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"577","DOI":"10.7326\/M20-0504","article-title":"The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application","volume":"172","author":"SA Lauer","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ann. Intern. Med"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"489","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb3221","article-title":"Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)","volume":"368","author":"R Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2000256","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256","article-title":"Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020","volume":"25","author":"TW Russell","year":"2020","journal-title":"Euro Surveill"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref037","first-page":"151","article-title":"Age-structure and transient dynamics in epidemiological systems","volume":"16","author":"FMG Magpantay","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268804003152","article-title":"Measles elimination in Italy: projected impact of the National Elimination Plan","volume":"133","author":"P Manfredi","year":"2005","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref039","first-page":"20140268","article-title":"Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China","volume":"281","author":"JM Read","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc. Royal Soc. London B"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0133203","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0133203","article-title":"The French connection: the first large population-based contact survey in France relevant for the spread of infectious diseases","volume":"10","author":"G B\u00e9raud","year":"2015","journal-title":"PloS one"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"162","DOI":"10.1136\/jech-2015-205777","article-title":"Social contacts, vaccination decisions and influenza in Japan","volume":"70","author":"Y Ibuka","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Epidemiol. Community Health"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e104786","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0104786","article-title":"Quantifying age-related rates of social contact using diaries in a rural coastal population of Kenya","volume":"9","author":"MC Kiti","year":"2014","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2017.01.041","article-title":"Estimating contact patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases in Russia","volume":"419","author":"M Ajelli","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Theor. Biol"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"172","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-018-3073-1","article-title":"Characteristics Of Human Encounters And Social Mixing Patterns Relevant To Infectious Diseases Spread By Close Contact: A Survey In Southwest Uganda","volume":"18","author":"O le Polain de Waroux","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMC Infec. Dis"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0170459","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0170459","article-title":"Social Contact Structures and Time Use Patterns in the Manicaland Province of Zimbabwe","volume":"12","author":"A Melegaro","year":"2017","journal-title":"PloS one"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7974","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-08241-1","article-title":"Social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong","volume":"7","author":"K Leung","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci. Rep"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e74","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050074","article-title":"Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases","volume":"5","author":"J Mossong","year":"2008","journal-title":"PLOS Med"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref048","unstructured":"Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (IBGE). https:\/\/brasilemsintese.ibge.gov.br\/populacao\/."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref049","unstructured":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Francisco Manuel dos Santos. https:\/\/www.pordata.pt\/."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref050","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. https:\/\/covid19.who.int. Accessed August, 17 2021."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref051","unstructured":"Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade do Brasil. Coronav\u00edrus Brasil. https:\/\/covid.saude.gov.br. Accessed August, 17 2021."},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref052","article-title":"Estimating COVID-19 under-reporting across 86 nations: implications for projections and control","volume":"iv","author":"H Rahmandad","year":"2020","journal-title":"medR\u03c7"},{"key":"pone.0262433.ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"510","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2020.11787","article-title":"Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-April 2020","volume":"324","author":"SH Woolf","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA"}],"container-title":["PLOS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0262433","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,8]],"date-time":"2022-03-08T18:36:10Z","timestamp":1646764570000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0262433"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"M. Shamim","family":"Kaiser","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,8]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,8]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0262433","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1932-6203"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,8]]}}}