{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,11]],"date-time":"2026-09-11T17:18:07Z","timestamp":1789147087557,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":130,"publisher":"University of California Press","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1740096000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":51,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The Barents Sea is a hotspot for ongoing Arctic climate change, manifested in a rapid warming of the ocean and the atmosphere and a strong decline of the winter sea-ice cover. These changes in the physical environment have large consequences for marine ecosystems, including commercial fish populations. In a warmer future climate, both physical and ecological changes are expected to intensify. Here, we provide a first comprehensive overview of future climate change projections for the Barents Sea, and the associated physical, biogeochemical, and ecological consequences based on climate models and end-to-end ecosystem models. We also discuss potential future changes in human activities and their impacts, including changes in shipping activity and contaminants. We analyze results for two time horizons\u2014the near-future (2040\u20132050) and the far-future (2090\u20132100)\u2014and for two different emission scenarios: one with moderate future greenhouse gas emissions (SSP2-4.5) and one high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). The projections show that the future Barents Sea will be warmer, less ice-covered, more acidic, and more productive, with fish populations and spawning sites moving northward. There are small differences in multi-model mean physical and biogeochemical projections between the two emission scenarios by 2050, while large scenario differences emerge toward the end of the century. The implications of these results are far-reaching, including identifying the sensitivity of ecosystem change to future emissions, informing regional management strategies, and potentially identifying needs for adaptation to changes already likely to occur.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1525\/elementa.2024.00046","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T15:05:26Z","timestamp":1740150326000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["The future Barents Sea\u2014A synthesis of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological changes toward 2050 and 2100"],"prefix":"10.1525","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Marius","family":"\u00c5rthun","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Khuong V.","family":"Dinh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2Section for Aquatic Biology and Toxicology, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jakob","family":"D\u00f6rr","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicolas","family":"Dupont","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"3Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Filippa","family":"Fransner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ina","family":"Nilsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"4Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul E.","family":"Renaud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"5Akvaplan-niva, Fram Centre for Climate and the Environment, Troms\u00f8, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Morten D.","family":"Skogen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"4Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Philipp","family":"Assmy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"6Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Troms\u00f8, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Melissa","family":"Chierici","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"7Institute of Marine Research, Fram Centre, Troms\u00f8, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pedro","family":"Duarte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"6Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Troms\u00f8, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Agneta","family":"Fransson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"6Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Troms\u00f8, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cecilie","family":"Hansen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"4Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marcela C.","family":"Nascimento","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"8GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Marine Evolutionary Ecology Research Division, Kiel, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Torstein","family":"Pedersen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"9Department of Arctic and Marine Sciences, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lars H.","family":"Smedsrud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"\u00d8ystein","family":"Varpe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"10Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway"},{"name":"11Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Bergen, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Frida","family":"Cnossen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"9Department of Arctic and Marine Sciences, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 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