{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,15]],"date-time":"2026-09-15T18:44:33Z","timestamp":1789497873357,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Bioscientifica","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,21]],"date-time":"2024-06-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1718928000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["ec.bioscientifica.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,21]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To create a nomogram-based model to estimate the Chinese population's 5-year risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We randomly divided 7582 participants into two groups in a 7:3 ratio: one group was assigned to work with the training set, which consisted of 5307 cases, and the other group was assigned to validate the model using 2275 cases. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model was employed to ascertain the variables with the highest correlation among all potential variables. A logistic model was constructed by incorporating these selected variables, which were subsequently visualized using a nomogram. The discriminatory ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>During the 5-year follow-up, 1034 (13.64%) total participants were newly diagnosed with MASLD. Using eight variables (gender, body mass index, waist, hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, uric acid, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein), we built a 5-year MASLD risk prediction model. The nomogram showed an area under the ROC of 0.795 (95% CI: 0.779\u20130.811) in the training set and 0.785 (95% CI: 0.760\u20130.810) in the validation set. The calibration curves revealed a 5-year period of agreement between the observed and predicted MASLD risks. DCA curves illustrated the practicality of this nomogram over threshold probability profiles ranging from 5% to 50%.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We created and tested a nomogram to forecast the risk of MASLD prevalence over the next 5 years.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1530\/ec-24-0186","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,21]],"date-time":"2024-06-21T09:38:33Z","timestamp":1718962713000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1530\/crossmarkpolicy-10","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Nomogram for predicting 5-year metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease risk: retrospective cohort study"],"prefix":"10.1530","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-0277-6918","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lei","family":"Gao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geriatrics, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wenxia","family":"Cui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geriatrics, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dinghuang","family":"Mu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geriatrics, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shaoping","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Management Center, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nan","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geriatrics, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Weihong","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Management Center, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3739-116X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yun","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geriatrics, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"416","reference":[{"key":"bib1","series-title":"Journal of Hepatology","first-page":"1542","article-title":"A multisociety Delphi consensus statement on new fatty liver disease nomenclature","volume":"79","author":"Rinella","year":"2023","unstructured":"Rinella MELazarus JVRatziu VFrancque SMSanyal AJKanwal FRomero DAbdelmalek MFAnstee QMArab JP, et al.A multisociety Delphi consensus statement on new fatty liver disease nomenclature. Journal of Hepatology2023791542\u20131556. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jhep.2023.06.003)"},{"key":"bib2","series-title":"Trends in Endocrinology and Metabolism","article-title":"Current status and future trends of the global burden of MASLD","author":"Miao","year":"2024","unstructured":"Miao LTargher GByrne CDCao YY & Zheng MH. Current status and future trends of the global burden of MASLD. Trends in Endocrinology and Metabolism2024 (S1043-2760(24)00036-5). (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.tem.2024.02.007)"},{"key":"bib3","series-title":"Gut","first-page":"691","article-title":"MASLD: a systemic metabolic disorder with cardiovascular and malignant complications","volume":"73","author":"Targher","year":"2024","unstructured":"Targher GByrne CD & Tilg H. MASLD: a systemic metabolic disorder with cardiovascular and malignant complications. Gut202473691\u2013702. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/gutjnl-2023-330595)"},{"key":"bib4","series-title":"EClinicalmedicine","first-page":"102292","article-title":"Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease increases the risk of incident cardiovascular disease: a nationwide cohort study","volume":"65","author":"Moon","year":"2023","unstructured":"Moon JHJeong SJang HKoo BK & Kim W. Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease increases the risk of incident cardiovascular disease: a nationwide cohort study. EClinicalmedicine202365102292. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.eclinm.2023.102292)"},{"key":"bib5","series-title":"European Journal of Medical Research","first-page":"153","article-title":"Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD)","volume":"28","author":"Roderburg","year":"2023","unstructured":"Roderburg CKrieg SKrieg ADemir MLuedde TKostev K & Loosen SH. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). European Journal of Medical Research202328153. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s40001-023-01114-6)"},{"key":"bib6","series-title":"Diabetes and Metabolism","first-page":"101506","article-title":"Steatotic liver disease, MASLD and risk of chronic kidney disease","volume":"50","author":"Bilson","year":"2024","unstructured":"Bilson JMantovani AByrne CD & Targher G. Steatotic liver disease, MASLD and risk of chronic kidney disease. Diabetes and Metabolism202450101506. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.diabet.2023.101506)"},{"key":"bib7","series-title":"Endocrine Practice","first-page":"528","article-title":"American association of clinical endocrinology clinical practice guideline for the diagnosis and management of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in primary care and endocrinology clinical settings","volume":"28","author":"Cusi","year":"2022","unstructured":"Cusi KIsaacs SBarb DBasu RCaprio SGarvey WTKashyap SMechanick JIMouzaki MNadolsky K, et al.American association of clinical endocrinology clinical practice guideline for the diagnosis and management of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in primary care and endocrinology clinical settings. Endocrine Practice202228528\u2013562. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.eprac.2022.03.010)"},{"key":"bib8","series-title":"BMC Gastroenterology","first-page":"33","article-title":"The fatty liver index: a simple and accurate predictor of hepatic steatosis in the general population","volume":"6","author":"Bedogni","year":"2006","unstructured":"Bedogni GBellentani SMiglioli LMasutti FPassalacqua MCastiglione A & Tiribelli C. The fatty liver index: a simple and accurate predictor of hepatic steatosis in the general population. BMC Gastroenterology2006633. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/1471-230X-6-33)"},{"key":"bib9","series-title":"Digestive and Liver Disease","first-page":"503","article-title":"Hepatic steatosis index: a simple screening tool reflecting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease","volume":"42","author":"Lee","year":"2010","unstructured":"Lee JHKim DKim HJLee CHYang JIKim WKim YJYoon JHCho SHSung MW, et al.Hepatic steatosis index: a simple screening tool reflecting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Digestive and Liver Disease201042503\u2013508. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.dld.2009.08.002)"},{"key":"bib10","series-title":"Lipids in Health and Disease","first-page":"133","article-title":"Development and validation of a new nomogram to screen for MAFLD","volume":"21","author":"Zou","year":"2022","unstructured":"Zou HZhao FLv XMa X & Xie Y. Development and validation of a new nomogram to screen for MAFLD. Lipids in Health and Disease202221133. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12944-022-01748-1)"},{"key":"bib11","series-title":"Frontiers in Public Health","first-page":"895045","article-title":"A prediction model of the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with visceral fatty obesity: a general population-based study","volume":"10","author":"Zhou","year":"2022","unstructured":"Zhou YChai XGuo TPu YZeng MZhong AYang G & Cai J. A prediction model of the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with visceral fatty obesity: a general population-based study. Frontiers in Public Health202210895045. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2022.895045)"},{"key":"bib12","series-title":"Lipids in Health and Disease","first-page":"205","article-title":"Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk prediction model and health management strategies for older Chinese adults: a cross-sectional study","volume":"22","author":"Pan","year":"2023","unstructured":"Pan HLiu BLuo XShen XSun J & Zhang A. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk prediction model and health management strategies for older Chinese adults: a cross-sectional study. Lipids in Health and Disease202322205. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12944-023-01966-1)"},{"key":"bib13","series-title":"American Journal of Translational Research","first-page":"6149","article-title":"Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the non-obese Chinese population","volume":"12","author":"Wang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Wang JTang YPeng KLiu H & Xu J. Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the non-obese Chinese population. American Journal of Translational Research2020126149\u20136159. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21203\/rs.3.rs-24981\/v1)"},{"key":"bib14","series-title":"Lipids in Health and Disease","first-page":"149","article-title":"Development and application of a novel model to predict the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among lean pre-diabetics with normal blood lipid levels","volume":"21","author":"Zhu","year":"2022","unstructured":"Zhu WShi PFu JLiang AZheng TWu X & Yuan S. Development and application of a novel model to predict the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among lean pre-diabetics with normal blood lipid levels. Lipids in Health and Disease202221149. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12944-022-01752-5)"},{"key":"bib15","series-title":"Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases International","first-page":"615","article-title":"Development and validation of machine learning models for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease","volume":"22","author":"Peng","year":"2023","unstructured":"Peng HYDuan SJPan LWang MYChen JLWang YC & Yao SK. Development and validation of machine learning models for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases International202322615\u2013621. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.hbpd.2023.03.009)"},{"key":"bib16","series-title":"Diagnostics","first-page":"1407","article-title":"Comparison of machine learning models and the fatty liver index in predicting lean fatty liver","volume":"13","author":"Su","year":"2023","unstructured":"Su PYChen YYLin CYSu WWHuang SP & Yen HH. Comparison of machine learning models and the fatty liver index in predicting lean fatty liver. Diagnostics2023131407. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/diagnostics13081407)"},{"key":"bib17","series-title":"Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases International","first-page":"409","article-title":"Comparison and development of advanced machine learning tools to predict nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: an extended study","volume":"20","author":"Liu","year":"2021","unstructured":"Liu YXLiu XCen CLi XLiu JMMing ZYYu SFTang XFZhou LYu J, et al.Comparison and development of advanced machine learning tools to predict nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: an extended study. Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases International202120409\u2013415. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.hbpd.2021.08.004)"},{"key":"bib18","series-title":"Annals of Medicine","first-page":"2317348","article-title":"LASSO-derived model for the prediction of lean-non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in examinees attending a routine health check-up","volume":"56","author":"Hsu","year":"2024","unstructured":"Hsu CLWu PCWu FZ & Yu HC. LASSO-derived model for the prediction of lean-non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in examinees attending a routine health check-up. Annals of Medicine2024562317348. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/07853890.2024.2317348)"},{"key":"bib19","series-title":"Heliyon","first-page":"e18758","article-title":"A dynamic machine learning model for prediction of NAFLD in a health checkup population: a longitudinal study","volume":"9","author":"Deng","year":"2023","unstructured":"Deng YMa YFu JWang XYu CLv JMan SWang B & Li L. A dynamic machine learning model for prediction of NAFLD in a health checkup population: a longitudinal study. Heliyon20239e18758. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.heliyon.2023.e18758)"},{"key":"bib20","series-title":"Journal of Medical Internet Research","first-page":"e46891","article-title":"Predicting the 5-year risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease using machine learning models: prospective cohort study","volume":"25","author":"Huang","year":"2023","unstructured":"Huang GJin Q & Mao Y. Predicting the 5-year risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease using machine learning models: prospective cohort study. Journal of Medical Internet Research202325e46891. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2196\/46891)"},{"key":"bib21","series-title":"Circulation","first-page":"211","article-title":"Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement. The TRIPOD Group","volume":"131","author":"Collins","year":"2015","unstructured":"Collins GSReitsma JBAltman DGMoons KGM & TRIPOD Group. Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement. The TRIPOD Group. Circulation2015131211\u2013219. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.114.014508)"},{"key":"bib22","series-title":"BMJ","first-page":"m441","article-title":"Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model","volume":"368","author":"Riley","year":"2020","unstructured":"Riley RDEnsor JSnell KIEHarrell FEMartin GPReitsma JBMoons KGMCollins G & Smeden van M. Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model. BMJ2020368m441. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmj.m441)"},{"key":"bib23","series-title":"Molecular Metabolism","first-page":"101728","article-title":"Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is characterised by a reduced polyunsaturated fatty acid transport via free fatty acids and high-density lipoproteins (HDL)","volume":"73","author":"Mocciaro","year":"2023","unstructured":"Mocciaro GAllison MJenkins BAzzu VHuang-Doran IHerrera-Marcos LVHall ZMurgia ASusan DFrontini M, et al.Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is characterised by a reduced polyunsaturated fatty acid transport via free fatty acids and high-density lipoproteins (HDL). Molecular Metabolism202373101728. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.molmet.2023.101728)"},{"key":"bib24","series-title":"Journal of Hepatology","first-page":"1374","article-title":"Familial coaggregation of MASLD with hepatocellular carcinoma and adverse liver outcomes: nationwide multigenerational cohort study","volume":"79","author":"Ebrahimi","year":"2023","unstructured":"Ebrahimi FHagstr\u00f6m HSun JBergman DShang YYang WRoelstraete B & Ludvigsson JF. Familial coaggregation of MASLD with hepatocellular carcinoma and adverse liver outcomes: nationwide multigenerational cohort study. Journal of Hepatology2023791374\u20131384. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jhep.2023.08.018)"},{"key":"bib25","series-title":"Gastroenterology","first-page":"547","article-title":"Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is the second leading etiology of liver disease among adults awaiting liver transplantation in the United States","volume":"148","author":"Wong","year":"2015","unstructured":"Wong RJAguilar MCheung RPerumpail RBHarrison SAYounossi ZM & Ahmed A. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is the second leading etiology of liver disease among adults awaiting liver transplantation in the United States. Gastroenterology2015148547\u2013555. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1053\/j.gastro.2014.11.039)"},{"key":"bib26","series-title":"Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology","first-page":"e168","article-title":"Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular risk: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association","volume":"42","author":"Duell","year":"2022","unstructured":"Duell PBWelty FKMiller MChait AHammond GAhmad ZCohen DEHorton JDPressman GSToth PP, et al.Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular risk: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology202242e168\u2013e185 (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1161\/ATV.0000000000000153)"},{"key":"bib27","series-title":"Lancet. Gastroenterology and Hepatology","first-page":"903","article-title":"Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"6","author":"Mantovani","year":"2021","unstructured":"Mantovani ACsermely APetracca GBeatrice GCorey KESimon TGByrne CD & Targher G. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet. Gastroenterology and Hepatology20216903\u2013913. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S2468-1253(2100308-3)"},{"key":"bib28","series-title":"Gut","first-page":"1867","article-title":"Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and incident major adverse cardiovascular events: results from a nationwide histology cohort","volume":"71","author":"Simon","year":"2022","unstructured":"Simon TGRoelstraete BHagstr\u00f6m HSundstr\u00f6m J & Ludvigsson JF. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and incident major adverse cardiovascular events: results from a nationwide histology cohort. Gut2022711867\u20131875. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/gutjnl-2021-325724)"},{"key":"bib29","series-title":"Gut","first-page":"1138","article-title":"Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and its relationship with cardiovascular disease and other extrahepatic diseases","volume":"66","author":"Adams","year":"2017","unstructured":"Adams LAAnstee QMTilg H & Targher G. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and its relationship with cardiovascular disease and other extrahepatic diseases. Gut2017661138\u20131153. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/gutjnl-2017-313884)"},{"key":"bib30","series-title":"Colorectal Disease","first-page":"830","article-title":"Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease have higher risk of colorectal adenoma after negative baseline colonoscopy","volume":"15","author":"Huang","year":"2013","unstructured":"Huang KWLeu HBWang YJLuo JCLin HCLee FYChan WLLin JK & Chang FY. Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease have higher risk of colorectal adenoma after negative baseline colonoscopy. Colorectal Disease201315830\u2013835. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/codi.12172)"},{"key":"bib31","series-title":"Journal of Endocrinological Investigation","first-page":"817","article-title":"Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and decreased bone mineral density: is there a link?","volume":"38","author":"Targher","year":"2015","unstructured":"Targher GLonardo A & Rossini M. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and decreased bone mineral density: is there a link?Journal of Endocrinological Investigation201538817\u2013825. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s40618-015-0315-6)"},{"key":"bib32","series-title":"Hepatology","first-page":"1577","article-title":"The economic and clinical burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the United States and Europe","volume":"64","author":"Younossi","year":"2016","unstructured":"Younossi ZMBlissett DBlissett RHenry LStepanova MYounossi YRacila AHunt S & Beckerman R. The economic and clinical burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the United States and Europe. Hepatology2016641577\u20131586. (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/hep.28785)"}],"container-title":["Endocrine Connections"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/ec.bioscientifica.com\/view\/journals\/ec\/13\/8\/EC-24-0186.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/ec.bioscientifica.com\/downloadpdf\/journals\/ec\/13\/8\/EC-24-0186.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/ec.bioscientifica.com\/downloadpdf\/journals\/ec\/13\/8\/EC-24-0186.xml","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,20]],"date-time":"2026-07-20T13:47:17Z","timestamp":1784555237000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/journals.bioscientifica.com\/ec\/article\/1653"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,21]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8"},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1530\/ec-24-0186","relation":{},"ISSN":["2049-3614"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2049-3614","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,21]]}}}