{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,5]],"date-time":"2026-11-05T19:38:36Z","timestamp":1793907516428,"version":"4.8.0"},"reference-count":83,"publisher":"Bioscientifica","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,15]],"date-time":"2026-06-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781481600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":244,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.bioscientifica.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a significant global public health burden, where early detection of at-risk populations is imperative for implementing targeted preventive strategies. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the methodological quality and predictive performance of existing T2DM risk prediction models in screening contexts.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Following the TRIPOD-SRMA statement, eligible studies were selected through searching seven databases (CNKI, WanFang Database, VIP, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library) from database inception through December 2024. Methodological quality was assessed using the PROBAST tool. Random-effects models synthesized discrimination (AUC). Subgroup analyses explored geographic, modeling, and validation-related heterogeneity. Funnel plots and Egger\u2019s regression test assessed small-study effects.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A total of 65 studies (encompassing 97 distinct prediction models) were included in the analysis. Among 97 models, logistic regression dominated (97.9% of models), achieving moderate discrimination (AUC: 0.628\u20130.916), while machine learning (ML) models showed marginally higher AUCs (up to 0.998). Geographic and cohort disparities emerged, with USA-based models outperforming others (USA AUC: 0.97 vs China AUC: 0.79) and poor performance in prediabetic cohorts (AUC: 0.72 vs 0.80 in normoglycemic). External validation remained limited (21 models), though spatial\/temporal validation cohorts demonstrated stable performance. High risk of bias and application (&amp;gt;80% of models) stemmed from inadequate statistical reporting and external verification definitions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>ML has favorable diagnostic accuracy for the progression of T2DM. This provides evidence for the development of predictive tools with broader applicability. Future research should prioritize external validation to enhance precision.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1530\/ec-25-0353","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,14]],"date-time":"2025-10-14T12:25:54Z","timestamp":1760444754000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1530\/crossmarkpolicy-10","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Performance of diabetes risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis"],"prefix":"10.1530","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9821-4570","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Meichen","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"1"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-1510-0852","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Aowei","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Linjie","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xingying","family":"Qiu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"1"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Li","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2"},{"name":"3"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zehuai","family":"Wen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2"},{"name":"3"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"416","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026070713540174100_bib1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2100","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00367-2","article-title":"Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990\u20132021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021","volume":"403","author":"GBD 2021 Causes of Death Collaborators","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2026070713540174100_bib2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/nrdp.2015.19","article-title":"Type 2 diabetes mellitus","volume":"1","author":"DeFronzo","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nat Rev Dis Primers"},{"key":"2026070713540174100_bib3","first-page":"128","article-title":"Diabetes: diabetes-induced microvascular destabilization","volume":"14","author":"Huynh","year":"2017","journal-title":"Nat Rev Cardiol"},{"key":"2026070713540174100_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.d7163","article-title":"Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: systematic review","volume":"343","author":"Noble","year":"2011","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2026070713540174100_bib5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"W1","DOI":"10.7326\/M18-1377","article-title":"PROBAST: a tool to assess risk of bias and applicability of prediction model studies: explanation and elaboration","volume":"170","author":"Moons","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"2026070713540174100_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"661","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2010.01431.x","article-title":"Clinical prediction models: a practical approach to development, validation and updating by Steyerberg, E. 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