{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,10]],"date-time":"2026-10-10T15:12:21Z","timestamp":1791645141938,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"6","content-domain":{"domain":["eje.bioscientifica.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,6]]},"abstract":"\n Objective<\/jats:title>\n To construct a predictive score for the development or progression of Graves\u2019 orbitopathy (GO) in Graves\u2019 hyperthyroidism (GH).<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Design<\/jats:title>\n Prospective observational study in patients with newly diagnosed GH, treated with antithyroid drugs (ATD) for 18 months at ten participating centers from EUGOGO in 8 European countries.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Methods<\/jats:title>\n 348 patients were included with untreated GH but without obvious GO. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to determine the best predictors. A predictive score (called PREDIGO) was constructed.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Results<\/jats:title>\n GO occurred in 15% (mild in 13% and moderate to severe in 2%), predominantly at 6\u201312 months after start of ATD. Independent baseline determinants for the development of GO were clinical activity score (assigned 5 points if score\u2009>\u20090), TSH-binding inhibitory immunoglobulins (2 points if TBII 2\u201310\u2009U\/L, 5 points if TBII\u2009>\u200910\u2009U\/L), duration of hyperthyroid symptoms (1 point if 1\u20134 months, 3 points if >4 months) and smoking (2 points if current smoker). Based on the odds ratio of each of these four determinants, a quantitative predictive score (called PREDIGO) was constructed ranging from 0 to 15 with higher scores denoting higher risk; positive and negative predictive values were 0.28 (95% CI 0.20\u20130.37) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.87\u20130.94) respectively.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n In patients without GO at diagnosis, 15% will develop GO (13% mild, 2% moderate to severe) during subsequent treatment with ATD for 18 months. A predictive score called PREDIGO composed of four baseline determinants was better in predicting those patients who will not develop obvious GO than who will.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1530\/eje-18-0039","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,4,12]],"date-time":"2018-04-12T12:25:24Z","timestamp":1523535924000},"page":"635-643","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1530\/crossmarkpolicy-1","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":98,"title":["Predictive score for the development or progression of Graves\u2019 orbitopathy in patients with newly diagnosed Graves\u2019 hyperthyroidism"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"178","author":[{"given":"Wilmar","family":"Wiersinga","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"1Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Milo\u0161","family":"\u017darkovi\u0107","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2Department of Endocrinology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luigi","family":"Bartalena","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"3Endocrine Unit, Ospedale di Circolo"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simone","family":"Donati","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"4Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Petros","family":"Perros","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"5Department of Endocrinology, Royal Victoria Infirmary, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Onyebuchi","family":"Okosieme","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"6Department of Endocrinology, Institute of Molecular and Experimental Medicine, Cardiff University School of Medicine, Cardiff, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Morris","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"7Cardiff Eye Unit, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicole","family":"Fichter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"8Department of Ophthalmology, Interdisciplinary Centre for Graves\u2019 Orbitopathy, Olten, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jurg","family":"Lareida","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"8Department of Ophthalmology, Interdisciplinary Centre for Graves\u2019 Orbitopathy, Olten, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Georg","family":"von Arx","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"8Department of Ophthalmology, Interdisciplinary Centre for Graves\u2019 Orbitopathy, Olten, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chantal","family":"Daumerie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"9Department of Endocrinology, Universit\u00e9 Catholique de Louvain, Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc, Brussels, Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria-Christina","family":"Burlacu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"9Department of Endocrinology, Universit\u00e9 Catholique de Louvain, Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc, Brussels, Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"George","family":"Kahaly","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"10Department of Medicine I, Johannes Gutenberg University Medical Center, Mainz, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Susanne","family":"Pitz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"11Orbital Center, Ophthalmic Clinic, Buergerhospital, Frankfurt, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Biljana","family":"Beleslin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2Department of Endocrinology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jasmina","family":"\u0106iri\u0107","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2Department of Endocrinology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Goksun","family":"Ayvaz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"12Departments of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Faculty of Medicine, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Onur","family":"Konuk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"13Ophthalmology, Faculty of Medicine, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"F\u00fcsun Balos\u031c","family":"T\u00f6r\u00fcner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"12Departments of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Faculty of Medicine, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mario","family":"Salvi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"14Graves\u2019 Orbitopathy Unit, Department of Clinical Science and Community Health, Fondazione Ca\u2019Granda IRCCS, University of Milan, Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Danila","family":"Covelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"14Graves\u2019 Orbitopathy Unit, Department of Clinical Science and Community Health, 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