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Biol."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The availability of vaccines provides a promising solution to contain the COVID\u201019 pandemic. However, it remains unclear whether the large\u2010scale vaccination can succeed in containing the COVID\u201019 pandemic and how soon. We developed an epidemiological model named SUVQC (Suceptible\u2010Unquarantined\u2010Vaccined\u2010Quarantined\u2010Confirmed) to quantitatively analyze and predict the epidemic dynamics of COVID\u201019 under vaccination.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In addition to the impact of non\u2010pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), our model explicitly parameterizes key factors related to vaccination, including the duration of immunity, vaccine efficacy, and daily vaccination rate etc. The model was applied to the daily reported numbers of confirmed cases of Israel and the USA to explore and predict trends under vaccination based on their current epidemic statuses and intervention measures. We further provided a formula for designing a practical vaccination strategy, which simultaneously considers the effects of the basic reproductive number of COVID\u201019, intensity of NPIs, duration of immunological memory after vaccination, vaccine efficacy and daily vaccination rate.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In Israel, 53.83% of the population is fully vaccinated, and under the current NPI intensity and vaccination scheme, the pandemic is predicted to end between May 14, 2021, and May 16, 2021, assuming immunity persists for 180\u00a0days to 365\u00a0days. If NPIs are not implemented after March 24, 2021, the pandemic will end later, between July 4, 2021, and August 26, 2021. For the USA, if we assume the current vaccination rate (0.268% per day) and intensity of NPIs, the pandemic will end between January 20, 2022, and October 19, 2024, assuming immunity persists for 180\u00a0days to 365\u00a0days. However, assuming immunity persists for 180\u00a0days and no NPIs are implemented, the pandemic will not end and instead reach an equilibrium state, with a proportion of the population remaining actively infected.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Overall, the daily vaccination rate should be decided according to vaccine efficacy and immunity duration to achieve herd immunity. In some situations, vaccination alone cannot stop the pandemic, and NPIs are necessary to supplement vaccination and accelerate the end of the pandemic. Considering that vaccine efficacy and duration of immunity may be reduced for new mutant strains, it is necessary to remain cautiously optimistic about the prospect of ending the pandemic under vaccination.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.15302\/j-qb-021-0256","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,19]],"date-time":"2021-05-19T23:24:56Z","timestamp":1621466696000},"page":"304-316","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Will the large\u2010scale vaccination succeed in containing the COVID\u201019 pandemic and how soon?"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Shilei","family":"Zhao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--1--> Beijing Institute of Genomics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--2--> China National Center for Bioinformation Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Future Technology University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tong","family":"Sha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--1--> Beijing Institute of Genomics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--2--> China National Center for Bioinformation Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Future Technology University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chung\u2010I","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--1--> Beijing Institute of Genomics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--4--> State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol School of Life Sciences Sun Yat\u2010sen University Guangzhou 510275 China"},{"name":"<!--5--> Department of Ecology and Evolution University of Chicago Chicago IL 60637 USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yongbiao","family":"Xue","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--1--> Beijing Institute of Genomics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--2--> China National Center for Bioinformation Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Future Technology University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hua","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--1--> Beijing Institute of Genomics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--2--> China National Center for Bioinformation Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Future Technology University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China"},{"name":"<!--6--> CAS Center for Excellence in Animal Evolution and Genetics Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming 650223 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010020\u20102404\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010020\u20102405\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40484\u2010020\u20100199\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010020\u20102798\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-021-01230-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2034577"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(21)00234\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2035389"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(20)32661\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_2","unstructured":"China grants conditional market approval for Sinopharm CNBG\u2019s COVID\u201019 vaccine."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_2","unstructured":"Sinovac announces phase iii results of its COVID\u201019 vaccine."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-020-03370-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abf4063"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cell.2021.01.050"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Abu\u2010Raddad L. 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