{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T18:10:48Z","timestamp":1792606248365,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":62,"publisher":"American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP)","issue":"5","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2010,11,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 \u201cmegatrends\u201d that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of \u201cwild-card\u201d scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2010-1903","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2010,10,19]],"date-time":"2010-10-19T02:31:59Z","timestamp":1287455519000},"page":"971-981","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":52,"title":["Pediatrics in the Year 2020 and Beyond: Preparing for Plausible Futures"],"prefix":"10.1542","volume":"126","author":[{"given":"Amy J.","family":"Starmer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"General Pediatrics, Children's Hospital Boston, Boston, Massachusetts;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John C.","family":"Duby","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Developmental and Behavioral Pediatrics, Akron Children's Hospital, Akron, Ohio;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kenneth M.","family":"Slaw","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Membership and Strategic Planning, American Academy of Pediatrics, Elk Grove Village, Illinois;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anne","family":"Edwards","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Pediatrics, Park Nicollet Health Services, Minneapolis, Minnesota; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Laurel K.","family":"Leslie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Pediatrics and Medicine, Tufts Medical Center Floating Hospital for Children, Boston, Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"Members of the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"417","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2010,11,1]]},"reference":[{"issue":"6","key":"2021121010120208700_B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1802","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.113.6.1802","article-title":"Primary care pediatrics: 2004 and beyond","volume":"113","author":"Cheng","year":"2004","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"key":"2021121010120208700_B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpeds.2007.08.014","article-title":"The future pediatrician: promoting children's health and development","volume":"151","author":"Schor","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Pediatr"},{"key":"2021121010120208700_B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S6","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpeds.2007.08.013","article-title":"The future pediatrician: the challenge of chronic illness","volume":"151","author":"Wise","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Pediatr"},{"issue":"5","key":"2021121010120208700_B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"982","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2010-1890","article-title":"Peering into the future: preparing, envisioning, engaging, and reshaping pediatrics in a changing world","volume":"126","author":"Leslie","year":"2010","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"key":"2021121010120208700_B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S8","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2008-1578D","article-title":"The Residency Review and Redesign in Pediatrics (R3P) project: roots and branches","volume":"123","author":"Jones","year":"2009","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"key":"2021121010120208700_B6","volume-title":"Trends Identification Report","author":"American Association of Medical Society Executives","year":"2009"},{"issue":"6","key":"2021121010120208700_B7","first-page":"29","article-title":"Outlook 2009: recent forecasts from World Future Society for 2009 and beyond","volume":"42","year":"2008","journal-title":"Futurist"},{"issue":"2","key":"2021121010120208700_B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"166","DOI":"10.1177\/1523422307313311","article-title":"Scenario planning: toward a more complete model for practice","volume":"10","author":"Keough","year":"2008","journal-title":"Adv Dev Hum Resour"},{"key":"2021121010120208700_B9","unstructured":"Scearce\u2008D, Fulton\u2008K. 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