{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,13]],"date-time":"2024-03-13T00:17:45Z","timestamp":1710289065573},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Universidad Nacional de Colombia","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,1]],"date-time":"2018-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1525132800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Rev. salud p\u00fablica"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Objetivo Establecer una nueva metodolog\u00eda predictiva de la proporci\u00f3n de dengue grave respecto al total anual de infectados de dengue por departamento con base en la teor\u00eda de la probabilidad.M\u00e9todos Con base en los datos anuales de n\u00famero de infectados por departamentos en el periodo 2005 -2010, se calcul\u00f3 la proporci\u00f3n entre casos de dengue grave respecto al total para cada a\u00f1o, y se construyeron espacios de probabilidad que eval\u00faan estos eventos en rangos de 0,5 y 0,3. Se determinaron conjuntos de rangos y se calcul\u00f3 probabilidad, desviaci\u00f3n media cuadr\u00e1tica y la diferencia entre ellas. Se realiz\u00f3 una predicci\u00f3n del rango de infectados para el 2011 con el promedio aritm\u00e9tico de los valores de los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os.Resultados Se predijo correctamente el rango en el que se encuentra incluida la proporci\u00f3n de n\u00famero de infectados de dengue grave sobre el total en cada departamento con una efectividad del 93,3% para el rango de 0,5 y de 86,7% para el de 0,3.Conclusi\u00f3n Se evidenci\u00f3 una autoorganizaci\u00f3n matem\u00e1tica espacio temporal en la proporci\u00f3n de dengue grave respecto al total que permite establecer predicciones de utilidad para la toma de decisiones de salud p\u00fablica.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.15446\/rsap.v20n3.42701","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,11,20]],"date-time":"2018-11-20T14:39:38Z","timestamp":1542724778000},"page":"354-358","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Predicci\u00f3n espacio-temporal probabilista de la epidemia de dengue total y grave en Colombia"],"prefix":"10.15446","volume":"20","author":[{"given":"Javier Oswaldo","family":"Rodr\u00edguez Vel\u00e1squez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Signed Esperanza","family":"Prieto Boh\u00f3rquez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Carlos Eduardo","family":"P\u00e9rez D\u00edaz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juan Mauricio","family":"Pardo Oviedo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sandra Catalina","family":"Correa Herrera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fern\u00e1n","family":"Mendoza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juan","family":"Bravo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Carlos","family":"Morales Pertuz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nydia Alexandra","family":"Rojas Avila","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Milena","family":"Flores Cardenas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"6146","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","unstructured":"Laplace P. 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