{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,5]],"date-time":"2026-06-05T22:07:48Z","timestamp":1780697268274,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"FapUNIFESP (SciELO)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,1]],"date-time":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735689600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,1]],"date-time":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735689600000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,1]],"date-time":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735689600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Rev. bras. epidemiol."],"abstract":"<jats:p>ABSTRACT  Objective:  To analyze the temporal trend of the prevalence of abusive alcohol consumption in the Brazilian adult population residing in the country\u2019s capitals between 2006 and 2023, and to estimate projections for 2030.  Methods:  Time-series study using data from the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey. Abusive alcohol consumption was defined as the intake of five or more drinks for men and four or more for women in a short period of time. The joinpoint regression model was used to identify trends, and exponential smoothing was applied to generate projections up to 2030.  Results:  We observed an increasing trend in abusive alcohol consumption in the total population (from 15.6% in 2006 to 20.8% in 2023) and among women, across most age groups - except those aged 18-24 and 45-54 years -, among individuals with 12 or more years of education, and among racial groups identified as white, Black, and mixed-race. Among women, we observed an increase in 23 capitals. Considering the trends between 2015 and 2023, the 10% reduction target by 2030 is unlikely to be achieved.  Conclusion:  The increase in alcohol consumption among women and the failure to meet the reduction target highlight the need to advance policies and programs to curb alcohol consumption.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1590\/1980-549720250057","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,12]],"date-time":"2026-01-12T15:05:29Z","timestamp":1768230329000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Temporal trends in abusive alcohol consumption and their projections for 2030 in Brazilian capitals"],"prefix":"10.1590","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8214-5734","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Deborah Carvalho","family":"Malta","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3737-2962","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paula Carvalho de","family":"Freitas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6586-4561","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Crizian Saar","family":"Gomes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5348-3793","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Guilherme Augusto","family":"Veloso","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal Fluminense,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7917-3857","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Regina Tomie Ivata","family":"Bernal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2587-5658","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alanna Gomes da","family":"Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0522-0374","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Filipe Malta","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias M\u00e9dicas de Minas Gerais,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-4524-0687","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sther Luna Abras dos","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3722-0803","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paulo","family":"Ferrinho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Nova de Lisboa,  Portugal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"530","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","series-title":"Alcohol","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref2","series-title":"GBD Compare"},{"issue":"10152","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1015","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)31310-2","article-title":"Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016","volume":"392","year":"2018","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1590\/1980-549720210022.supl.1","article-title":"Convergence in alcohol abuse in brazilian capitals between genders, 2006 to 2019: What population surveys show","volume":"24","author":"Malta DC","year":"2021","journal-title":"Rev Bras Epidemiol"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1590\/0102-311x00104516","article-title":"Tend\u00eancias de consumo abusivo de \u00e1lcool nas capitais brasileiras entre os anos de 2006 a 2013: an\u00e1lise das informa\u00e7\u00f5es do VIGITEL","volume":"33","author":"Munhoz TN","year":"2017","journal-title":"Cad Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"308","DOI":"10.1136\/jech-2016-207644","article-title":"Alcohol advertising and public health: systems perspectives versus narrow perspectives","volume":"71","author":"Petticrew M","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Epidemiol Community Health"},{"key":"ref7","article-title":"For women, heavy drinking has been normalized. That\u2019s dangerous","author":"Kindy K","year":"2016","journal-title":"The Washington Post"},{"issue":"10383","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1194","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(23)00013-2","article-title":"Defining and conceptualising the commercial determinants of health","volume":"401","author":"Gilmore AB","year":"2023","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"ref9","series-title":"Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustent\u00e1vel"},{"key":"ref10","article-title":"Temporal trend in the prevalence of indicators related to driving a motor vehicle after alcohol consumption, between 2007 and 2018","volume":"23","author":"Malta DC","year":"2020","journal-title":"Rev Bras Epidemiol"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1712","DOI":"10.1111\/acer.12815","article-title":"Converging patterns of alcohol use and related outcomes among females and males in the United States, 2002 to 2012","volume":"39","author":"White A","year":"2015","journal-title":"Alcohol Clin Exp Res"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"701","DOI":"10.5123\/S1679-49742017000400003","article-title":"Sistema de Vigil\u00e2ncia de Fatores de Risco e Prote\u00e7\u00e3o para Doen\u00e7as Cr\u00f4nicas por Inqu\u00e9rito Telef\u00f4nico (Vigitel): mudan\u00e7a na metodologia de pondera\u00e7\u00e3o","volume":"26","author":"Bernal RTI","year":"2017","journal-title":"Epidemiol Serv Sa\u00fade"},{"key":"ref13","series-title":"VIGITEL Brasil 2020: Vigil\u00e2ncia de fatores de risco e prote\u00e7\u00e3o para doen\u00e7as cr\u00f4nicas por inqu\u00e9rito telef\u00f4nico","year":"2021"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1939","DOI":"10.1111\/acer.13859","article-title":"Trends in adult alcohol use and binge drinking in the early 21st-century United States: a meta-analysis of 6 national survey series","volume":"42","author":"Grucza RA","year":"2018","journal-title":"Alcohol Clin Exp Res"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"911","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapsychiatry.2017.2161","article-title":"Prevalence of 12-month alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV alcohol use disorder in the United States, 2001-2002 to 2012-2013: Results from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions","volume":"74","author":"Grant BF","year":"2017","journal-title":"JAMA Psychiatry"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1344","DOI":"10.1111\/acer.14082","article-title":"Is there a recent epidemic of women\u2019s drinking? A critical review of national studies","volume":"43","author":"Keyes KM","year":"2019","journal-title":"Alcohol Clin Exp Res"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"481","DOI":"10.3109\/16066359.2013.877455","article-title":"Gender and social pressure to change drinking behavior: Results from the National Alcohol Surveys from 1984 to 2010","volume":"22","author":"Polcin DL","year":"2014","journal-title":"Addict Res Theory"},{"key":"ref18","series-title":"Monitoring the Future national survey results on drug use, 1975-2024: Overview and detailed results for secondary school students","author":"Miech RA","year":"2025"},{"issue":"1-2","key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"140","DOI":"10.1016\/j.drugalcdep.2013.01.019","article-title":"Age, period, and cohort effects in heavy episodic drinking in the US from 1985 to 2009","volume":"132","author":"Keyes KM","year":"2013","journal-title":"Drug Alcohol Depend"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1590\/S0034-89102004000100007","article-title":"Alcohol drinking patterns by gender, ethnicity, and social class in Bahia, Brazil","volume":"38","author":"Almeida-Filho N","year":"2004","journal-title":"Rev Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"},{"key":"ref21","series-title":"Youth drinking cultures in a digital world: alcohol, social media and cultures of intoxication","first-page":"49","volume-title":"Curating identity: drinking, young women, femininities and social media practices","author":"Lindsay JM","year":"2017"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2023.07.035","article-title":"The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to particulate matter pollution in South America: analysis of the 1990-2019 global burden of disease","volume":"224","author":"Salerno PRVO","year":"2023","journal-title":"Public Health"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1177\/004908570503500413","article-title":"The essential guide to doing research","volume":"35","author":"Nanda S","year":"2005","journal-title":"Soc Change"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"301","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mds337","article-title":"Light alcohol drinking and cancer: a meta-analysis","volume":"24","author":"Bagnardi V","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ann Oncol"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref25","article-title":"Time trend in inequalities in smoking and abusive alcohol consumption in Brazil\u2019s state capitals","volume":"37","author":"Wendt A","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cad Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"332","DOI":"10.1093\/eurpub\/cks044","article-title":"Alcohol consumption and social inequality at the individual and country levels-results from an international study","volume":"23","author":"Grittner U","year":"2013","journal-title":"Eur J Public Health"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"158","DOI":"10.1037\/adb0000143","article-title":"The great recession and employee alcohol use: A U.S. population study","volume":"30","author":"Frone MR","year":"2016","journal-title":"Psychol Addict Behav"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"352","DOI":"10.1111\/acer.13559","article-title":"Trends in alcohol-related emergency department visits in the United States: results from the nationwide emergency department sample, 2006 to 2014","volume":"42","author":"White AM","year":"2018","journal-title":"Alcohol Clin Exp Res"},{"issue":"11","key":"ref29","article-title":"The intersection race\/skin color and gender, smoking and excessive alcohol consumption: cross sectional analysis of the Brazilian National Health Survey, 2013","volume":"37","author":"Garcia GAF","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cad Saude Publica"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1590\/1980-549720210042","article-title":"Preval\u00eancia e fatores sociodemogr\u00e1ficos associados ao beber pesado no Brasil: an\u00e1lises transversais da Pesquisa Nacional de Sa\u00fade","volume":"24","author":"Ribeiro LS","year":"2021","journal-title":"Rev Bras Epidemiol"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"222","DOI":"10.11606\/issn.1806-6976.v12i4p222-230","article-title":"Alcohol and tobacco consumption among seamstresses from the city of Formiga-Minas Gerais","volume":"12","author":"Silva NA","year":"2016","journal-title":"SMAD"},{"issue":"1-2","key":"ref32","first-page":"152","article-title":"Ethnicity and health disparities in alcohol research","volume":"33","author":"Chartier K","year":"2010","journal-title":"Alcohol Res Health"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1080\/13557858.2012.713092","article-title":"Racial discrimination, racial\/ethnic segregation, and health behaviors in the CARDIA study","volume":"18","author":"Borrell LN","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ethn Health"},{"key":"ref34","series-title":"Tackling NCDs. Best buys and other recommended interventions for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref35","article-title":"Governo prop\u00f5e que \u201cimposto do pecado\u201d seja cobrado sobre cigarros, bebidas alco\u00f3licas, a\u00e7ucaradas, carros e petr\u00f3leo","author":"Martello A","year":"2024","journal-title":"G1"},{"key":"ref36","series-title":"Projeto de Lei Complementar n\u00ba 68, de 2024","year":"2024"}],"container-title":["Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia"],"original-title":["Tend\u00eancia temporal do consumo abusivo de bebidas alco\u00f3licas e suas proje\u00e7\u00f5es para 2030 nas capitais brasileiras"],"link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.scielo.br\/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&pid=S1415-790X2025000100449&tlng=en","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,12]],"date-time":"2026-01-12T15:05:33Z","timestamp":1768230333000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.scielo.br\/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-790X2025000100449&tlng=en"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025]]},"references-count":36,"alternative-id":["S1415-790X2025000100449"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1590\/1980-549720250057","relation":{"is-translation-of":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1590\/1980-549720250057.2","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1590\/1980-549720250057.2","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1980-5497","1415-790X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1980-5497","type":"electronic"},{"value":"1415-790X","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025]]},"article-number":"e250057"}}