{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,8]],"date-time":"2026-11-08T05:33:46Z","timestamp":1794116026616,"version":"4.8.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"FapUNIFESP (SciELO)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Rev. bras. epidemiol."],"abstract":"<jats:p>ABSTRACT  Objective:  To analyze confirmed cases of dengue in Goi\u00e1s, Brazil between 2015 and 2022 and to estimate the risk of new outbreaks until 2026.  Methods:  A time series study using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) was conducted. Monthly records of cases confirmed by laboratory or clinical-epidemiological criteria were included. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied using the R software (v.4.2.1). Stationarity, trend, seasonality, residual autocorrelation, and model fit were evaluated, with estimates obtained by maximum likelihood and 95% confidence intervals.  Results:  During the study period, 709,270 confirmed cases were recorded. Epidemics occurred cyclically every two years, with peaks in 2015 (101,261), 2016 (82,077), 2018 (70,794), 2019 (107,589), and 2022 (189,998), interspersed with years of lower incidence such as 2017 and the COVID-19 pandemic years (2020-2021). Serotype replacement was observed preceding major outbreaks. The SARIMA model showed good fit (Akaike Information Criterion - 1768.9; Bayesian Information Criterion - 1786.8) and predicted new peaks in 2025 (177,775 cases) and 2026 (224,100 cases).  Conclusion:  Dengue in Goi\u00e1s displayed recurrent epidemic cycles, pointing to an increase in cases and reinforcing the need for integrated strategies based on prevention and control. The SARIMA model proved useful for surveillance and public health planning, although its accuracy may be influenced by external factors.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1590\/1980-549720260010","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,3]],"date-time":"2026-04-03T11:48:05Z","timestamp":1775216885000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Time series analysis (2015-2022): dengue risk scenario in Goi\u00e1s, Brazil"],"prefix":"10.1590","volume":"29","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-5504-5018","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ronaldo Rodrigues de","family":"Oliveira Junior","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal de Goi\u00e1s,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5083-237X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana Carolina Figueiredo","family":"Modesto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal de Goi\u00e1s,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1743-8151","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Leandro do Prado","family":"Assun\u00e7\u00e3o","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal de Goi\u00e1s,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1134-5699","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lindomar Jos\u00e9","family":"Pena","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Oswaldo Cruz,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9843-2949","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Val\u00e9ria Christina de Rezende","family":"Feres","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal de Goi\u00e1s,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"530","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-3527(08)00401-6","article-title":"The history and evolution of human dengue emergence","volume":"72","author":"Vasilakis N","year":"2008","journal-title":"Adv Virus Res"},{"issue":"7446","key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"Bhatt S","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-018-2830-8","article-title":"History, epidemiology and diagnostics of dengue in the American and Brazilian contexts: a review","volume":"11","author":"Salles TS","year":"2018","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"329","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-019-6641-4","article-title":"30 anos of fatal dengue cases in Brazil: a review","volume":"19","author":"Nunes PCG","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"ref5","series-title":"Dengue"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref6","article-title":"The burden of neglected tropical diseases in Brazil, 1990-2016: a subnational analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016","volume":"12","author":"Martins-Melo FR","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"ref7","series-title":"Annual epidemiological update for Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika in 2020"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref8","first-page":"2","article-title":"Ger\u00eancia de Vigil\u00e2ncia Epidemiol\u00f3gica. 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